Quote from: hatshepsut93 on February 12, 2024, 11:57:03 PM

Quote from: nullama on February 12, 2024, 07:46:05 AM

You can clearly see that it has been an incredibly great savings strategy so far, obtaining a lot more value than simply saving in fiat.

The key word is "so far" - no one can reliably predict where will Bitcoin be in the future, and there's no guarantee that a major bear market won't come. Maybe all these recent bull runs are a bubble and there will be a huge correction - that's a real possibility too. Those "boomer investments" are yielding less profits than BTC for a good reason - they are less risky and far better understood.

If I were planning to retire off BTC gains (and I might actually do that), I would focus on exit strategy to actually take BTC profits and move them into safe and predictable assets, instead of holding all my wealth in BTC for the rest of my life.

Well, there are major bear markets after every bull market. I think everyone understands we'll get another one in 2026. Bear markets shouldn't scare anyone in the Bitcoin market, they come every four years.

In terms of what you do after you retire, that just depends how much you retired on. I retired well below what I would actually need for retirement, because I had (and still have) all my money in Bitcoin so I knew thanks to Bitcoin's growth that I could safely retire well before I actually had enough dollar-amount to retire on. But if someone keeps working until they have several million dollars in Bitcoin then SOME diversification upon retirement could be a reasonable plan, even if it would lead to slower growth.

Personally, I plan to only diversify a little bit of my Bitcoin, my plan is to diversify about 6% of the Bitcoin I retired on into stocks over the course of the 2030's and 2040's. I don't think it's wise financially to do it sooner than that because Bitcoin will continue growing much faster for a good number of years than any stock portfolio I could possibly put together. It would take both extreme skill and extreme luck to make a stock portfolio that is safer and more lucrative than just sticking with Bitcoin.

One more thing, I think Bitcoin is as predicable an asset as you can possibly get. It's four year cycles have worked like clockwork. There are certainly no stocks that whose price movements you could possibly predict as well as the 4-year cycle price movements of Bitcoin. That's one of the great things of keeping money in Bitcoin as opposed to stocks, it not only grows faster but is far more predictable.

Often when people find out I retired off Bitcoin they make some comment like "oh so you sold all your Bitcoin to retire?" and I always want to laugh, I'm like god no I wouldn't be retired if I did that! And even if I could have retired doing that it would have been a horrible financial decision! If you know what you're doing you don't get out of something that is both as successful as Bitcoin and as early in adoption as Bitcoin just to move into slower growing far less predictable assets. I do plan to diversify eventually into some stocks as I stated, and maybe some real estate as rental properties if I want to deal with that hassle, but Bitcoin will always be the core of my wealth and I expect I'll still have at least a couple bitcoin left when I die, which assuming I die in old age would let me pass on to family members bitcoin likely worth 8-digits in dollars by then.

But again, it all depends on just how much you retire on. Bitcoin's growth and predictability of its market cycles allows people (like me) to front-run retirement. I retired in 2019. I knew we'd have another bull market in 2021 thanks to Bitcoin's clockwork predictable 4 year cycles, so I saved two years worth of cash in the bank to get me from retirement to the 2021 bull market before I needed more cash. In no other investment can you 'front-run' like that with a predictable and safe plan.

For anyone who retires off Bitcoin I highly recommend:

1. Keeping most of your money in Bitcoin after retirement, don't go all diversification just because you retired (unless you're reading this in like the 2040s by which time Bitcoin's growth may not necessarily be much faster than the stock market). The less money you retired on, the longer you should keep it just in Bitcoin. But if you retired with a big excess of money it is okay to diversify into slower growing assets upon retirement if you would rather have safety through diversification than safety through Bitcoin's growth and predictability. But even then you wouldn't want to entirely move out of Bitcoin, just diversify some.

2. Don't retire during a bull market, thinking that you hit some desired amount of wealth to retire on. Because then you have to go through a year of watching your net worth drop terribly in your first year of retirement. There's some term in the FIRE movement (which I can't recall right now) to describe the risk of your investments going down in the first few years after retirement. This screws up your entire retirement financial plan because then you start retirement pulling out a higher percentage than what you had planned, and so throughout retirement you then have less money, and that negatively compounds against you over time. The day I retired Bitcoin was at $10,000-something, knowing we were heading into the next big peak in two years, and nearly 7x'ing over the next two years of that market cycle. That's a great part of the cycle to retire during, when the bear market is over and it is still very early in the market cycle so you can watch your wealth grow a lot the first two years of retirement.