I would describe asymmetric bet a bit differently.

My understanding of asymmetric bet is that if you do not use leverage, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you have invested; however, if various bullish cases for bitcoin play out, then you have chances to double, triple, 10x, 100x, 1,000x your investment, depending on your timeline and depending on how bullish bitcoin ends up playing out - in the event it does end up playing out bullishly rather than flat or bearishly.. but even if it ends up playing out flat or bearishly, you are not going to lose any more than 100% of what you had invested (so long as you do not use leverage).

So you seem to be sort of correct that when you are assessing possible outcomes for bitcoin and your investment into it, you are weighing one price direction versus the other side (down versus up), but also you should be factoring the magnitude of upside that is possible, including that you do not necessarily need to invest large portions of your wealth and still end up having potentials for benefiting greatly...

Consider some of the guys who might have invested $10k or less into bitcoin 8-12 years ago, and yeah of course, the earlier they invested the better, yet $10k for some folks might have had been a whimpy investment.. and even a $1k investment in 2012 might have gotten you close to 200 bitcoin, and surely some folks might consider that amount to have had been pretty whimpy, and so the return ended up being way more disproportionate to the upside as compared to the amount invested or the amount put at risk, even if you consider opportunity costs of the invested money and even if you consider that the money devalued over the next 8-12-ish years, depending on when the guy got into bitcoin.

So even today, the upside potential of bitcoin might well not be as great in terms of multiples and or magnitude in which BTC could appreciate - even given a potential $50k investment price, yet bitcoin's investment thesis is not weaker today, and there are some BIG institutions that are just coming into bitcoin, and they would have had never invested into bitcoin when it was lower prices because its marketcap was not enough and there were not enough other BIG players investing into bitcoin, and so these days some of the upside potential and strength of bitcoin's investment thesis is ONLY beginning to be known, which likely reinforces the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis,

even for some of the folks who might be investing into bitcoin but hardly having any clues in regards to what it is and they also may ONLY be investing into bitcoin through some kind of an investment vehicle (such as through spot BTC ETFs), merely based on the idea (someone may have told him or maybe he comes up to that idea himself) that number might go up..   I am not even suggesting that superficial ideas about bitcoin or even market sentiment would be good reasons to invest into bitcoin, even though those reasons do end up exacerbating bitcoin's likelihood to go up and even end up disproportionately putting a lot of extra upwards price pressures on bitcoin, since by law the spot BTC ETF managers have to maintain BTC holdings that match the BTC exposure that their clients have elected through the purchase of the spot BTC ETF shares that are purchased (or sold) by the client.


It is funny (and/or strange) that frequently many normal people end up devolving into gambling practices when they invest because they do not adequately understand their own finances and psychology.. and sure, maybe they don't even need to have any kind of strong psychology as long as they set up their finances in such a way that is not devolving into gambling practices..

And, so I frequently claim that an overwhelming majority of people have abilities to manage their own finances, count how much income they have versus their expenses and to ONLY invest with their extra money (disposable/discretionary income that is the difference between their income and their expenses), yet part of the problem that they run into is that they do not employ enough discipline to both 1) think through their own finances for 3-6 months into the future (and continue to project into the future) and 2) to employ practices that make sure that they maintain enough of a cash cushion so that they will never have to dip into their investment (BTC in this case), so they frequently will end up using bitcoin (or anything else that they invest into) as part of their emergency fund, which remains a form of gambling that is likely to catch up with them the longer that they try to dance such sloppiness in their own practices..and it would be within their abilities to actually fix their errors if they were to spend some time thinking through the basic kinds of money management practices and employing those kinds of basics that would be to prepare themselves to never get into trouble and be forced to have to sell some or all of their investment (bitcoin in this case) at a time that is not 100% of their own preplanning and choosing.   


Sure leverage tends to be dangerous, and it is a more advanced technique.  I am not opposed to leverage and/or taking out loans, but you have to have way to pay and service the loan that are other than being based on the anticipated price appreciation of the asset (bitcoin in this case).


So yeah.. 4-10 years or longer would be a good way to think about any bitcoin that you buy to have at least that kind of timeline, so if you are DCAing into bitcoin for 6 years straight, then your earliest BTC buys would have had reached investment timelines of 4-10 years or longer, but your latest purchases would not have had very much time to appreciate in value, so if you keep investing into BTC, then any new purchases, would also have 4-10 years or more for those later investments so you would likely see ways to measure the price appreciation of your various coins and the various purchase times, which seems to be partly what the tool of this thread would be helping longer term HODLers to be able to measure.. even though you may also have your own records and/or your own spreadsheet that might give you various numbers, but also you might be tracking your average cost per BTC which surely is different from the cost of your various BTC purchases that might end up being spread out over a decade or more.. once you are in bitcoin for a long enough time, you would likely have coins fitting in the various timeline categories - especially if you mostly held the coins rather than trading them and confusing your records.. and surely guys may end up doing a lot of things, besides merely holding their coins that may or may not end up working to their advantage if their goals might be to accumulate more BTC with the passage of time.. .


How will you know that it is time to sell?   

And what if you don't have enough bitcoin, then how is selling going to help to keep you in the right mindset for accumulation and ongoingly building of your BTC stash rather than fucking around with attempts at getting in and out that either might not pay off, or might even cause you to spend way too much waiting when you should just be accumulating BTC..

ON the other hand if you have accumulated a lot of BTC, and if they are mostly in profits, then why would anyone be trying to fuck around with selling them and trying to get back in, unless maybe they are just selling a small portion of their stash at various price points.

If you have been in BTC since around the time of your forum registration date in February 2016, then has your tactic outperformed a relatively strict DCA practice?  Do you know how to measure such a thing?

And wow.. look at your forum registration date?  In 2 days, you are coming upon 8 years registered on the forum.. and so if you had invested $100 per week over the last 8 years, you would have had invested right around $42k into BTC, and you would have had accumulated right around 13.6 BTC (worth right around $673.2k - so clearly right around 16x price appreciation.   Even if your amounts were not the same, is your current BTC holdings valued around 16x price appreciation based on whatever you had been doing over the last 8 years?


I agree with everything you said romero121 - except we are talking about bitcoin in this thread.. so I don't know why you chose to use such a dumbass vague term, because DCA does not apply to shitcoins.. so it is difficult to know what you meant if you chose not to use the word bitcoin.  Are you talking about bitcoin or something else, and if you are talking about bitcoin, then why the fuck did you not use the word bitcoin?  fuck shitcoins.. and dumbass vague, amorphous and misleading language that does not even really communicate anything except maybe that the person that is using that dumbass word does not know what is bitcoin or they are trying to act like they are smarter, when the use of the word makes them look dumb, since DCA does not apply to shitcoins...especially not in any kind of general way.. .. and even if you try to point out any specific shitcoin, it probably would not apply to that particular shitcoin either. but you did not point out any particular shitcoin that you might have had been thinking about when you used that word perhaps to try to appear smart, when you accomplished the opposite and may have mislead some of us at the same time regarding what the fuck you are talking about.