Quote from: philipma1957 on February 14, 2024, 03:49:16 PM

Quote from: Ambatman on February 14, 2024, 03:30:21 PM

[edited out]

when rising. make some smaller sell ladders
say
54.5k
59.6k
64.3k
69.2k
74.4k
pretend you have a coin right now.
don't sell a lot on the ladder.
sell
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02

which is 0.9 coins left for later
start a higher ladder after this ladder sells out

maybe
0.02 at 97.2k
0.02 at 102.2k
0.02 at 107.1k
0.02 at 112.2k
0.02 at 117.3k
leaves you with 0.8btc and some cash for the crash or expenses.
you would have 16000 cash and 0.8 btc
all the numbers above are based on your btc being way under 40k say 29k or so.

jjg can give you other ideas of how to sell it or buy it or hold it.

I am having troubles imagining scenarios that would justify a newbie to be selling very much of his BTC, especially if the newbie has ONLY been in BTC for less than a year, unless he had front-loaded and way over invested - such as if the newbie has one or two years of income in BTC.. so there are problems in changing your practice into trading prior to accumulating enough cornz.. .. so I am not sure if we know enough in regards to ambatman

The other thing is that your example sale amounts and the increments seem a bit much..

If a guy has 1 BTC, then he starts to sell at $54k, are we imagining his holdings to be 100% profits at that time, if his average cost per BTC is in the $27k arena? That would not seem to be enough to start selling.. but hey, sure people do dumb things, but then people do tend to sell too many BTC too soon and then regretting it later..

In your first scenario, the guy ends up selling 10% of his stash and the BTC price had ONLY gone up 50% and all of those sales are in the middle of noman's land, which is also not a good place to be selling much if any BTC.. so maybe if the sell orders are cut 75%, then they might be acceptable.. depending on the guys level of already having enough BTC. I would hardly consider 1 BTC to be enough.. but yeah, people live all over the world, so their costs of living are different.

It would be acceptable for a guy to have ladders that does allow up to 10% sales for every doubling of the BTC price, presuming that the guy had already accumulated enough, which I cannot be sure what that amount might be... and so guys do come to differing determinations, but if the BTC price keeps going up, the guys going to feel like he sold way too much too soon.. but maybe not until after he sells and the BTC price keeps going up.

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 14, 2024, 03:49:16 PM

all the numbers above are based on your btc being way under 40k say 29k or so.

I would think that a guy selling any BTC with less than 100% profits, would have to be really overstocked, and let's say that the guy has a salary that is $20k per year, and if he has a whole BTC then he has 2.5 years in salary when BTC prices are at $50k... .. if he is trying to get to fuck you status, then that would be $400k to $600k (which is 20x to 30x his annual salary), so do you think that he is making progress to get to fuck you status to be selling his BTC rather than continuing to buy BTC? especially if he only has 1 BTC and he ONLY has 2.5x his salary/expenses. Another thing is if he is valuating his BTC at spot price rather than using the 200-week moving average, he is engaging in another deception because the 200-week moving average right now is ONLY around $31k, so he may well ONLY have 1.5x of his annual salary rather than 2.5x of his salary, if he is trying to make a safer and more fair assessment of his situation and the value of his BTC holdings.

Whenever I sell any BTC, I presume that I am not going to be able to buy it back, so the amount that I sell accounts for my not being able to buy it back, but sure since BTC prices have historically tended to be volatile, I have been able to buy a lot of BTC back, but still the underlying presumption is not being able to buy them back, so then you structure how much to sell and even whether you are ready to start selling yet based upon the idea that if you sell you won't be able to buy back.....

and so another thing that is ambiguous is if someone does not have enough BTC yet, then I doubt it is good to be selling.. because you don't sell BTC to accumulate BTC. . you buy BTC to accumulate BTC, so you ONLY start to sell BTC once you have already calculated that not only do you have enough, you have more than enough.. so the justification for selling is because you have more than enough BTC. so you are able to justify selling the extra, but that still does not justify selling a lot, but just enough in order to have some kind of personally justifiable system in which you more or less know how many BTC that you have at various price points and so if you have 1 BTC at $54k, then how many are you going to have at $108k? is 0.9 BTC acceptable at that price, or if you still want to have 1 BTC at $108k or you want to have more than 1 BTC at $108k, then you have not yet gotten to the stage in which you have enough BTC to start selling.

Now if a guy has 1 BTC at $200k or at $500k, then maybe that might be another story? Is it o.k. to have 0.95 BTC at $200k and 0.9 BTC at $500k? if that might be acceptable to the person, and the person currently ONLY has 1 BTC at $54k, then that person only has 0.1 BTC extra in his BTC holdings to be able to work with as excess until the BTC price gets to $500k... so it remains a good idea to consider if the guy has enough BTC right now in consideration of how many that he needs (or wants to have at various higher price points) and how much extra that the guy might have to work with and might be able to sell and still be able to reach his target BTC quantity at higher BTC prices.. These matters can be projected out so that a guy who is still in his accumulating stage is not selling in order to accumulate more BTC, but instead continues to buy until he has extra prior to starting to sell any of his BTC.... ..

Again, if he has targets about when the spot price reaches $500k versus when the 200-week moving average reaches $500k, those are two separate valuations that relate to one another, but still guys who are mostly trying to keep their value in BTC should be attempting to account for both ways of valuating his BTC holdings in order to have some restraints upon how many BTC that he is selling in light of his total BTC holdings and his goals.

Quote from: Biodom on February 14, 2024, 04:34:20 PM

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In a bull market, you buy, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

This is another good point that relates to if you have enough.

So if you have enough, you don't need to buy right now.. but if you don't have enough you may well be better off to be buying right now.

I presume that most folks who have been in bitcoin for less than a full cycle should still be buying... but someone like Biodom should have had already gotten enough.. but if his earlier purchases were too whimpy then he might still be buying rather than just sitting back and waiting for the BTC prices to come to him, whether that is at $54k, $84k, $124k, $163k. $381k, $517k, $1,376,389 or whatever other price target(s) that he might have in mind for his BTC in the event that he had bought more than whimpy amounts back in 2014, 2015 and 2016... so whether he has 20 BTC or some other number.. still it could be a matter of perspective regarding if that amount is enough or if the amount is more than enough and if he is in a position to start shaving some of them off along the way.

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 14, 2024, 05:03:35 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 14, 2024, 04:34:20 PM

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In a bull market, you buy, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

You are against sell ladders into a bull I am for them.

just don’t over sell your holdings. I e if you have 1 btc don’t sell it all in the runup to 100k

My selling stack is far less than my holding stack.

and I still mine in order to stack more.

Well if you have 1 BTC in your stack that you are willing to sell, and your HODL stack is around 10 BTC, then that might be a reasonable framework... especially if you are selling in no man's land... .

I did a quickie calculation of my own sell orders between $54k and $150k, and right now it adds up to selling right around 2% of my current holdings between here and $150k, and that would be if the BTC prices were to shoot up without any corrections... Sure, I am authorized to sell more than that.. since that would be way more than a doubling.. so a doubling does allow to sell up to 10%.. but even in my personal holdings I am not selling that much, but I am not going to suggest that guys are overly selling if they sell up to 10% for every doubling..but it still needs to meet the condition that they have already stacked enough or more than enough BTC.

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 14, 2024, 05:09:15 PM

so I am sure jjg can tell you the average price from nov 22 to feb 24. about 65 weeks time

No I cannot tell you exactly those kinds of short time frames especially if you had not been very consistent in what you were doing, but if you were buying BTC regularly and consistently, then there are websites that will help you to figure out how much your costs should have had been during that timeframe.. so for example if you had been buying $100 per week since November 1, 2022, then you would have had spent $6,800 and you would have had accumulated about 0.3133 BTC (valued currently at about $16,260), but still seems like a big so fucking what. . .but over a cycle or two or more it starts to seem like a pretty good deal to accumulate BTC over 4-10 years or longer... and then to be in a position to have options in regards to what to do with your BTC stash.

I can tell you that if you are holding through whole cycles, and maybe over the span of a couple of cycles, then you likely do not have to worry so much about so many details because your coins are in sufficient profits and their value has likely been compounding upon itself, so then it becomes less of a concern regarding if you want to shave off some profits along the way.

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 14, 2024, 05:09:15 PM

I am different then most here as I get most coin via mining.⛏️

You seem to be in a kind of trading practice more than you are holding (and/or investing) your cornz.. since you are not even seeming to be trying to hold even over a whole cycle. .so you are likely experiencing little to no compounding effects on the value of your BTC as is the case for a lot of us longer term accumulators and HODLers who have multitudes and/or magnitudes of profits on our current BTC holdings... Many of us are not tending to turn them over on a regular basis, so maybe right now some of us might have 5x to 10x, to 50x to 500x in profits on coins that we are selling and/or shaving off from time to time. So yeah, you likely are different if you are not holding some of you coins on the side and investing with them rather than fucking around and trying to cashflow them on a regular basis before they even have had chances to compound in value.

Here's part of a post that I made several days ago in regards to BTC compounding value.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2024, 03:16:59 AM

For example, even just looking at where bitcoin was in 2015, we can see that there have been about 9 doubling of bitcoin's value events (in terms of it's dollar value) and yeah some retracements but still we are currently still around 8 doublings since 2015 (that is ONLY a little more than 8 years).

1) $250 (2015)
2) $500 (2015-2016)
3) $1,000 (2016-2017)
4) $2,000 (2017)
5) $4,000 (2017-2020)
6) $8,000 (2017-2020)
7) $16,000 (2017-2022)
8 ) $32,000 (2021-2023?)
9) $64,000 (2021-?)
10) $128,000 (?)

Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.