Quote from: OgNasty on February 14, 2024, 06:04:51 PM

Quote from: JimboToronto on February 14, 2024, 05:31:12 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 14, 2024, 04:34:20 PM

We are in BULL market.
Surely, you can try to buy a dip, but mechanical sell ladders?
A firm NO from me unless you have to sell to cover some expenses.

In an early bull market, you ~~buy~~ remain all in, buddy, it is as simple as this.
Don't overthink it.

ftfy

I’m also firmly against sell ladders. It’s beyond obvious at this point that Bitcoin moves in a 4-year cycle. I don’t think there’s many people left that deny this. There’s never been an easier asset to trade (and I don’t trade it). You just buy in early 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027; and you sell in late 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029… Do this and you’ll make a fortune. You could also just DCA until you want to cash out. Setting up sell ladders though… In what world or with what backtesting has this been considered a good idea?

Buy on the way down and sell on the way up.. but don't sell too much on the way up, and also don't run out of fiat on the way down. it is called this world that those kinds of things are done, and it also can be considered as a form of BTC portfolio maintenance that does not even attempt to time the market or to get emotional about the market, because the price comes to you rather than you going to the price.. what a lovely world that allows such a thing.. and it is called "the real world."

As far as the back testing goes, there is no need for backtesting.. If you have an excel spreadsheet, you could just calculate how much BTC you want to sell at which price points and how much you want to buy at which price points. Something similar to my raking formula or some variation of that, and if the BTC price goes to those pre-set price points you execute the orders and if the BTC price does not go to those price points then you do not execute anything.. there is no emotions involved because either the BTC price goes there or it does not..

And if you don't want to follow a raking system, there are likely some other systems that you could employ, especially if you are in profits, then you have quite a bit of discretion regarding how to treat your BTC holdings.

Quote from: SamReomo on February 14, 2024, 07:24:22 PM

Quote from: OROBTC on February 14, 2024, 05:12:51 PM

@philipma1957, *maybe* I'll start selling a little bit at $80k, but that's just because I am always uncertain. But, I'm not selling much at below $100,000. The Hal Finney predictions of $1M+ make more sense now.

I guess Hal Finney's prediction is the best prediction about Bitcoin that someone could think off. I mean it's best if someone can hold their Bitcoin when it reaches $1M or $1m+ per coin but most people don't have that much patience. For such people who are in hurry to enjoy some profits from their holdings $100k seems a good value I believe.

But, surely the ones with more than 1 Bitcoin could sell some of their holdings at $80k as that's also a profitable value for them if they bought Bitcoin when it was cheaper. Even the ones who bought Bitcoin at $16k during the last bear market's dip can make some good profits if they sell their holdings at $80k. That's around a 4x profit for them which's kind of cool return on investment.

That sounds pretty dumb for someone who ONLY has around 1 BTC to be selling part of his BTC at $80k because he bought at $16k.. The guy is going to need more than just the fact that he is 4x in profits. We need more details. What is his income? Is the guy still accumulating? Is he accumulating BTC in order to get into dollars? What's his annual income? Even if his annual income is $10k per year, $80k would ONLY be 8x his annual salary... I question scenarios in which $80k would be enough.. and even if the guy had 2 BTC, that is $160k, that also seems like there would not be too many scenarios in which that would be enough.. but hey.. sure add some facts to flesh this out besides a mere assertion that his seemingly fairly whimpy holdings are 4x in profits.

Don't get me wrong. I am not trying to suggest that 1 BTC might not be a lot in some circumstances, but it surely does not seem to be an amount that is worthy shaving off some of it absent some further facts to show why it might be justified.

Also don't get me wrong, you have discretion to do dumb things, but I need more than just the idea of buying at $16k and selling at $80k...

For example, if the guy started buying in 2021, and his annual salary was around $20k, and so maybe he bought $30k worth of bitcoin through out 2021 with an average cost per BTC of around $40k.. so he got around 0.75 BTC, and then maybe the next two years, he put together another $40k and he bought about another 1.5 BTC.. so then when he gets into this year, he is starting to feel overinvested... so maybe in those kinds of circumstances, he could justify starting to shave off parts of his BTC holdings... his total of 2.25 BTC cost him about $70k (average cost of about $31,100 per BTC) and they are currently worth about $117k, and so nearly 6x his salary, and since he got into his investment so rashly, he might even already be willing to start to shave off some of his holdings.. because he is feeling over exposed to BTC, but he still might not feel like he is in a position to really shave off a lot because he feels that he has enough BTC, but he need to bring more balance to his life because he's got most of his networth in BTC. .. and yeah, maybe he already has an emergency fund and other parts of his financial life in order so he might be able to just ride out the investment, but he might also want to start to structure either to stop buying so much or maybe to structure some small amounts of sales as the BTC price goes up..

Quote from: criptoevangelista on February 14, 2024, 08:15:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 14, 2024, 08:09:27 PM

Seemed like such a long shot, just a few months ago.. especially in October when Adam Back was predicting $100k before the halvening, and now even he is not looking so crazy.

At the time when I read about Adam Back's bet on the 100k I thought he was crazy for betting that, unless he had some privileged information, which I think is difficult... At that time bitcoin was in the region of 30k. It was impossible for such a bold bet to succeed, nowadays I think it could be completely viable.

I remember posting about it, and maybe I gave it less than 5% odds? I cannot remember, exactly. But now the odds are likely getting greater, and greater and greater, and maybe even approaching 40% or more.

I would hate to give $100k prior to the halvening as having more than 50% odds, but it is feeling quite easy right now, but I just hate taking various kinds of bullish BTC price moves for granted, even if currently we are witnessing a lot of ongoing and persistent buy pressure on a lot of the exchanges/markets, and it could well be the case that BTC prices have to go up an additional 2x or 3x within the coming months (before the halvening? I don't know) just to accommodate the current ongoing and persistent BTC buying pressures..

and many of us who have already stacked a lot of cornz over the years are way ahead of this game of financial institutions getting in, including that we front run a lot of these current BIGGER players.. and say if some of us might have gotten 20 BTC over the years, and then between $80k and $150k we could shave off 1 or 2 of those BTC and still be in pretty good shape... I personally am not saying that I have that many BTC or even claiming to having more than 0.63 BTC.. .. but I know a relatively whimpy WO member who has 20 BTC, and he says that he is waiting for BTC prices to get to $10 million before he is going to start shaving some of his previously thought to be whimpy BTC stash. .and I think he is somewhat against selling, so I am not sure if he even has any kind of exact plan.. and maybe there is no need to have any exact plan as long as the BTC are secured.. and .. .. so yeah.. results are going to vary between members, even in these here parts.

Quote from: Krubster on February 14, 2024, 08:31:35 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on February 14, 2024, 06:04:51 PM

I’m also firmly against sell ladders. It’s beyond obvious at this point that Bitcoin moves in a 4-year cycle. I don’t think there’s many people left that deny this. There’s never been an easier asset to trade (and I don’t trade it). You just buy in early 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027; and you sell in late 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029… Do this and you’ll make a fortune. You could also just DCA until you want to cash out. Setting up sell ladders though… In what world or with what backtesting has this been considered a good idea?

That kind of sound like a buy/sell ladder too though, just that your example is time dependable rather than price...

I get what you mean though. However, setting up a sell ladder might not be too bad of an idea. Let's say you predict the price to reach a certain number, a sell ladder around that number could make sense. Each to their own I guess.

Exactly.. I was thinking of saying the same to OgNasty.. claiming to not be a trader but instead buying and selling at certain times.. which is a kind of swing trading or a broader kind of trading, even though it may well not depend upon trying to figure out smaller levels of BTC price moves.