Quote from: teamsherry on Today at 12:32:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 13, 2024, 12:09:56 PM

Quote from: teamsherry on February 14, 2024, 11:07:00 PM

Could you explain more about how bitcoin compounds value to me a bit, i would really love to understand.

Can't you already see the idea of compounding value within my previous discussion and pointing out 8-9 doublings of the BTC price since 2015? The idea of compounding value should be clear from looking at the numbers, no? which part is not clear?

Of course it is not guaranteed to continue to happen.. but if you happen to have some understanding how bitcoin is more scarce than fiat currencies (and likely more scarce than any other asset or currency in the world), then you also might understand why bitcoin is likely to continue to have ongoing compounding value effects.. even though, again, it is not guaranteed, so we should account for how compounding takes time and likely to continue to take time..

and I personally like to look at the 200-week moving average rather than spot price in order to also see how the 200-week moving average (which tends to the the bitcoin price bottom) continues to go up, which in my entry-level fuck you status chart, you can see both the historical numbers and also the projection of bottoms (200-week moving average) until 2074...and that may or may not end up being correct, also...so you should be preparing according to your own financial and/or psychological circumstances.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 13, 2024, 12:09:56 PM

In bitcoin it is not good to think in terms of compounding interest, but instead think in terms of compounding value.

I touch upon that comparison in another thread in a post of mine from a few days ago:[/size]

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2024, 03:16:59 AM

For example, even just looking at where bitcoin was in 2015, we can see that there have been about 9 doubling of bitcoin's value events (in terms of it's dollar value) and yeah some retracements but still we are currently still around 8 doublings since 2015 (that is ONLY a little more than 8 years).
1) $250 (2015)
2) $500 (2015-2016)
3) $1,000 (2016-2017)
4) $2,000 (2017)
5) $4,000 (2017-2020)
6) $8,000 (2017-2020)
7) $16,000 (2017-2022)
8 ) $32,000 (2021-2023?)
9) $64,000 (2021-?)
10) $128,000 (?)
Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.

Historically, many folks have gotten overly greedy with their bitcoin and they put their bitcoin with third-parties in order to receive interest or yield and then they end up getting fucked.. so frequently it is not worth the risk to be using those kinds of interest bearing products in relation to your bitcoin, unless you can have some confidence that they are not gambling with your BTC too much.. which is truly difficult to assess because sometimes they are lying to you about what they are doing with your BTC in order to earn the yield.

Now that I know how bitcoin compounding works, I can see that it favors long-term investors. Historically, this has happened at intervals of two or even three times. Based on your explanation, if I started holding in 2015 and held it for four years, I would have received an eight times return on my initial investment . So bitcoin not only offers good compounding value effect but also a means to store value.

You are making an error to be thinking somewhat linerally rather than in the power of exponentials. You are getting more than 8x because you are getting 8 7^** doublings... which makes the compounding to be even more powerful to let your investment ride upon itself.

**Note: I made a mistake in my earlier rendition since the first one does not count.. it is the base starting off point. So we start to count doublings from the second one.

So, let's look at the numbers and the timeline again.

1) 0) $250 (2015)
2) 1) $500 (2015-2016) 2X
3) 2) $1,000 (2016-2017) 2X * 2 = 4X
4) 3) $2,000 (2017) 4X * 2 = 8X
5) 4) $4,000 (2017-2020) 8X * 2 = 16X
6) 5) $8,000 (2017-2020) 16X * 2 = 32X
7) 6) $16,000 (2017-2022) 32X * 2 = 64X
~~8 )~~ 7) $32,000 (2021-2023?) 64X * 2 = 128X
9) 8 ) $64,000 (2021-?) 128X * 2 = 256X
~~10)~~ 9) $128,000 (?) 256X * 2 = 512X

You can likely see that if you are shaving off profits at the earlier stages, then you are going to eat into the compounding (and/or exponential) component in regards to how your value would have had grown through that period of time.

So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..

So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.

Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.

Quote from: teamsherry on Today at 12:32:31 AM

And this compounding effect would or might continue to occur because bitcoin will remain a valuable asset over time. Just look at how much it cost and how simple it was to obtain bitcoin in 2015.

The investment thesis for bitcoin seems to be getting stronger rather than weaker, even though we cannot really know the future prices of bitcoin, even though we surely can theorize that bitcoin's total addressable market is right around $1 quadrillion right now, and surely those kinds of numbers are likely to increase with the passage of time, including the probable more ways in which bitcoin would be useable in a variety of future scenarios... .. yet at the same time, the levels of past performance does end up taking away from quite a bit of the likely magnitude of bitcoin's upside potential in terms of how much time it might take for bitcoin to reach a market cap of $1 quadrillion or even greater amounts, which could well take 50 to 200 years, even if it makes it to those levels, and if we consider bitcoin's reaching gold's market cap to be around a 12x to 15x price appreciation, there likely could be a lot of stagnation in bitcoin's price appreciation in the territories in which bitcoin is 10x to 100x gold's market cap.. and it could even take several cycles to get to those kinds of price points, but it also might end up ONLY taking a few years.. and so it is not necessarily easy to know, even though we likely realize when BTC prices go up, there does need to be at least enough demand for it that it is ongoingly able to sustain prices that it achieves, which is largely why I prefer to ongoingly consider bitcoin bottoms rather than bitcoin tops in terms of my own attempts to figure out how to both value my bitcoin holdings and to consider future possible values of my bitcoin holdings based on bottom prices and as reflected (and projected) out to 2074 in my entry-level fuck you status chart.

Quote from: teamsherry on Today at 12:32:31 AM

Then, picture what it will be like in four years, and you can see that I, as a holder, will still have the opportunity to profit even if the compounding value is only two times or even greater—no one can predict with certainty.

It seems that as a whole bitcoin remains one of the best (if not the best) of investments that anyone can make, even if the current upside potential for the next 9 years is likely not as great as it ended up being in the last 9 years... and surely if your investment timeline is shorter, then you are not as likely to be able to take advantage of the varying compounding effects.. but for sure no one knows, and so part of the reason why several of us (including yours truly) continue to suggest that anyone getting into bitcoin should consider it as a longer term investment of 4-10 years or longer, and so if you are barely able to consider the minimum of that range, then you might be thinking too short term, but if you are considering reassessing at various points along the way or that there is some reason that you are going to want to be out of bitcoin in 4 years, then surely that also might be able to work out for you.. and if you are starting to invest in bitcoin now or even in recent times, such as within the last few months in line with your forum registration date, then you likely would be able to take some kind of a bitcoin investment approach and also continue to investigate it, research it, learn about it and perhaps tweak your BTC investment approach as you continue to learn and to reassess your situation in light of your presumptive ongoing learning about bitcoin and learning about yourself (in the event that there might be investment related things that you might want/need to learn about yourself).

Maybe one further point in regards to compounding value versus DCA investing, if you DCA invest into bitcoin for the next 4 years, then the earlier portions of your investment would have had more likelihoods of compounding and the later portions of your investment might not have had as much time to compound, and so sometimes it can make differences if you can get more frontloaded investing in order to have potentially more benefits of compounding value, but there might not be any way to really know if it better to front load and also some people are not able to front load into any investment (including investing into bitcoin) without putting their whole financial situation at too much risk in terms of ending up gambling rather than investing... so whatever you do, you don't want to end up in gambling, while continuing to realize that it can take quite a bit of time to both build up an investment and also to start to have enough value invested into such investment that you start to see the compounding effects. .which can be highlighted by doublings.. and even sometimes difficult to see during long correction and/or flat periods, and then sometimes even in bitcoin there sometimes end up being short periods of time in which a lot of compounding happens in a very short period, which can cause a lot of dilemma for guys in terms of figuring out what to do, especially more dilemmas the shorter the period of time that they had been in the investment because it is not even necessarily clear when or if to sell any BTC especially if guys are in their earliest of BTC accumulation stages.

Quote from: teamsherry on Today at 12:32:31 AM

Therefore, based on my theory—which I haven't tested—I believe that as bitcoin becomes more scarce, the compounding value impact may rise. Time will hopefully prove if I'm right or wrong 🙂.

Yes, sure, bitcoin is already scarce and it's issuance is already known, so yeah the rate of its new issuance is going to continue to shrink, even though we already largely know that that is going to be, so its schedule of new issuance can be somewhat anticipated and included in what is known about bitcoin, yet at the same time, the demand is likely going to continue to increase with greater and greater accustomization to what bitcoin is, and the likely recognition that is it capable of solving a lot of current real world problems that seem to be stemming from corruptible man-made centralizing dynamics in regards to monetary policies... and so yeah, bitcoin was already built to resolve those foundational problems that are wide-spread with fiat systems, with the dollar currently in the position of serving as the least shitty of a variety of shitty fiat system systems.. that seemed to move further and further away from soundness.

Quote from: teamsherry on Today at 12:32:31 AM

I have seen the thread you creates on the fuck you status, it's quite broad and I take my time to look into it 😊.

Let me know if you have any questions.. Hopefully it sufficiently explains what it is attempting to do in terms of showing historically how many BTC that you would have had needed to reach entry-level fuck you status (presuming $2million as default entry-level fuck you status), and then it attempts to project that out until 2074.... so it can hopefully give you some ideas regarding your own plans about BTC accumulation, if that is where you might consider yourself to be right now.

Quote from: Justbillywitt on Today at 06:42:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 15, 2024, 10:36:33 PM

[edited out]

You made me laugh so hard where you said "am I running out of words" I don't think a man like you will ever run out of words. 😂

Fair enough.

It is not a given that I am always going to have words to respond to various ideas presented in this thread.. and it is even a current reality that sometimes my fingers get sore from typing.. .. and surely sometimes I do speculate that I might be repeating myself a wee bit too muchie.., and I start to wonder whether I should (or need to) respond.

Quote from: FinePoine0 on Today at 06:48:10 AM

According to the DCA method, the longer the investment is, the more benefits will accrue. Since its inception in 2009, many investors have held Bitcoin for the long term to date. It is up to the investor who is ready to take the risk to invest at the right time. There is no fixed time to invest in Bitcoin, it is possible to invest only with proper thinking. I have participated in the investment since April 2023. And take everyone's advice to prolong my investment. I gather enough knowledge from here and am urgently trying to keep the investment alive for a long time and I am ready to invest more.

Bitcoin was so niche in 2009, 2010 and 2011, and even though bitcoin continued to expand and even started to have some monetary value in 2010, it is still kind of difficult to use those earliest years as times to consider that very many normal people were even able to get involved in bitcoin.

In recent times, I have begun to consider that maybe somewhere around the beginning of 2012 might not have had been a good time to start to count BTC's monetary properties, especially since by then BTC's spot price and 200-week moving average were not very far apart and considering $4 to $5 as a starting point seems way better than starting at zero or even to be considering those first 3 years in any kind of way that presumes anything close to publicly accessible.. .so yeah, every year since then, bitcoin has continued to expand and to gain markets.. .. but sure, people can do whatever they like in their assessment of those first few years. which from my perspective seems to skew the data way too much to include them in terms of some of the thoughts about monetary value.. but at the same time, they cannot be completely ignored. .and sure, maybe it would be better to start to count at bitcoin's first halvening on November 28, 2012, yet it still seems to me a bit arbitrary and maybe a bit better to include the beginning of 2012... just to have a bit more data in which bitcoin's monetary use cases were starting to get some grass roots expansion in that year.

You can look up BTC spot price versus 200-week moving average on this website.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 04:49:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 14, 2024, 07:22:56 PM

[edited out]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It's not a joke. I truly believe that as Bitcoin HODLers, we should learn more about our investment. It's also no mere investment, it could be the most important asset, like Gold, that might serve as a back-up/fall-back if the current financial system fails/crashes.

Bitcoin's technical design and the design decisions made by the Core Developers ensures that it remains as a form of hard money for internet transactions. Those big institutions wouldn't touch Bitcoin and wrap it in an ETF, if that didn't have any value.

To the extent that you might not be changing your position and to the extent that I can even remember what we were arguing about in regards to whether bitcoin should be considered and presented to newbies as an investment or as something else, such as a technological phenomena that is better than any shitcoin.. blah blah, blah, it could well be that we are devolving into arguments about semantics... to the extent that you are still worked up about any of my potentially lame attempts at making light of bitcoin-related matters.