Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 20, 2024, 11:37:04 PM

Date   BTC_Price   Weekly$Amt   $Invst/Yr   RunTotal$Invst   BTC/Yr   TotalBTC   Total$Value
1/14/25   $59,999.40   $10.00   $520.00   $520.00   0.00900009   0.00900009   $540.00
1/14/26   $64,799.35   $12.00   $624.00   $1,144.00   0.01000010   0.01900019   $1,231.20
1/14/27   $69,983.30   $14.40   $748.80   $1,892.80   0.01111122   0.03011141   $2,107.30
1/15/28   $75,581.96   $17.28   $898.56   $2,791.36   0.01234580   0.04245721   $3,209.00
1/14/29   $81,628.52   $20.74   $1,078.27   $3,869.63   0.01371756   0.05617477   $4,585.46
1/14/30   $88,158.80   $24.88   $1,293.93   $5,163.56   0.01524173   0.07141650   $6,295.99
1/14/31   $95,211.51   $29.86   $1,552.71   $6,716.27   0.01693526   0.08835176   $8,412.10
1/15/32   $102,828.43   $35.83   $1,863.25   $8,579.52   0.01881695   0.10716871   $11,019.99
1/14/33   $111,054.70   $43.00   $2,235.90   $10,815.43   0.02090772   0.12807644   $14,223.49
1/14/34   $119,939.08   $51.60   $2,683.09   $13,498.51   0.02323081   0.15130724   $18,147.65

You can see that the first year or two don't really do anything, but the longer that you are in, the more that the value starts to compound upon itself, and even though over 10 years, we a bit more than a doubling in the price of BTC from $55k to $120k, we end up getting quite a bit of appreciation in our value since we would have had invested nearly $13.5k, yet the value of our holdings would be close to $18.2k.. and of course, we can play around with these kinds of numbers to try to figure out if there might be more aggressive or less aggressive investment scenarios but also we can make assessments if we consider the BTC price to go up a lot in value or a little bit in value, and we could have steady anticipated appreciation or maybe we might assume some years to be up and some to be down, yet we might ask ourselves for the purposes of projecting out future BTC price fluctuations does it help us to predict with a lot of granularity or might we be better served by keeping our projection more general and then just adjust it each year after it has played out?

In my understanding of this your table I see that the investment on DCA per week in the first year of the table was $10 per week compounding to $520 per year because there are 52 weeks per year with the value of btc at $59k per btc.

There might be some deficiencies in my ballpark formulas, and yeah of course you see that in the first year, the amount invested in the 4th column (of $520) only differs from the value of the BTC holdings by $20. And, the difference becomes bigger and BIGger and BIGGER with passing years, and the first years are likely not even very important because presumptively a lot of building is going on, and not too much price appreciation.. and even if the BTC price goes up a lot, the amount of BTC accumulated takes a while to build up.

I did another posting in another thread showing some a couple other scenarios in which the BTC price were to go up slower (such as only 2% annually rather than 8% annually in example 2) or if the BTC price were to go up faster (such as 20% annually in example 3).. while keeping the investment amount of $13.5k the same over the 10 years.

So essentially the total amount of BTC accumulated is the median price between the start of the price in the beginning of the year and the end of the year price.. so that estimates how many BTC would be purchased for the year, and the Total $ value of the holdings at the end of the year is simply taking the price at the end of the year in column 2 multiplied times the number of BTC in the wallet in column 7.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

And the second year DCA method change from 10 to $12 per week at the value of $64k consecutively till the 10 years interval of $119k approximately $120k all is base on absumbtion.

Yes. The built in assumption for this scenario is 8% per year price appreciation. Of course, you can use a different assumption number if you are attempting to project out various possible scenarios.. so you might have some scenarios that are more bullish and other scenarios that are less bullish, and so if you attempt to capture a vast array of scenarios, then you might even assign probabilities in terms of your own point of view and expectations regarding which scenarios you consider to be more likely and which scenarios you consider to be less likely.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

But I Think it would have been better for someone to invest higher when the value is low than waiting for the price to high before increasing the weekly DCA.

Frequently we do not have a choice, unless you are planning to gamble with your income. So for example if a guy makes between $700 and $2k per month with a most commonly received amount of around $1,200 per month, and perhaps expenses that are mostly around $1k per month, then he only has right around $200 extra per month for his discretionary/disposable income.

Sure it could be possible that he has other savings/investments/assets that he could draw upon, and he could also use debt to invest, but that likely would not be advisable absent some different factual circumstances, and sure of course, guys can do whatever they want, but frequently, they should be attempting to work with what they got in terms of prudence and management rather than gambling with funds that they might not have.

Don't get me wrong, I am a pretty fucking BIG advocate of front loading your BTC investment to some extent, so let's say the same person has around $2,400 that he can take from other areas and allocate that $2,400 to bitcoin investing, and if he has that amount, he could divide 1/3 ($800) for each of the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips... Or he could just put it all into BTC right away, which might put him in an uncomfortable position if the BTC price does not end up going up from the time of his buying.. and so there frequently can be trade-offs and balancing that is necessary, even with attempts to front-load your BTC investment.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

For example according to the table at first year when btc was $59k, weekly DCA was $10.

In this particular table in the first year, the BTC price started at $55k and ended at $60k.. so the average price for the year would have been $57.5k = (($55k + $60k) / 2)

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

At second year when btc was $64k the DCA was 12, 14 17 to $51consecutively for the 10years interval.

Again $64.8k was at the end of the year, so the start of the second year the BTC price was $60k and at the end of the year it was $64.8k.

And yeah that third column was assuming an ability to increase the weekly DCA amount by around 20% at the end of each year and into the new year... It is kind of a ballpark idea, and surely people can be way more specific with their own situations in terms of figuring out what might work for their own salary versus expenses...and so part of the assumption is that disposable/discretionary income is going up, which is not always going to be the case, but that was the assumption that I had within the creation of this particular hypothetical person's projection of his own financial circumstances and his abilities to authorize his budget for the buying of= BTC.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

don't you think if this DCA was turned upside down, that more profit would be made?

Of course I think that it would be better to invest more in the beginning, but let's try to be realistic.

I think part of my point (and suggestion) for anyone getting into BTC is to attempt to be as aggressive as you can without overdoing it, so usually that is going to mean figuring out their budget and getting their finances and psychology in order, which frequently means that they do not have as much disposable/discretionary income, and they have to build up to situations in which they have more disposable/discretionary income.

To me, it sounds like you are wanting to gamble and to be unrealistic, because I am already presuming that the person investing and within the chart is already attempting to be as aggressive as he is able to be, and yeah, if he has other facts and/or circumstances that allows him to be more aggressive, then I have not problem with that, even though it is not as realistic as the scenario that I am painting.. so you seem to be fighting with the scenario and assuming a shrinking rather than a growing discretionary income.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

Just like DCAing $51 from the first year and going down to $10 in the 10th year.

If you have discretionary income to do that, then set up your scenario in that way. I have no problem with such an idea if you are able to do that...even though it seems a bit less realistic to me... but whatever, you can presume whatever facts that you like and if you believe that your own facts allow you to invest in that kind of a way, then do as you wish,. but I personally think that if you are decreasing your investment amount in later years you are likely underinvesting and you would probably be better off to continue to stay as aggressive as you can until you reach a high enough status of BTC accumulation, such as 1- 5 years of your income invested into BTC.. which frequently guys who might be investing 10% of their income into BTC, they are going to take 10 years just to get to 1 years worth of income invested, but yeah if you are abel to do more than 10% then you are way better than average.. and I have no problem with people investing 25% of their income into BTC, but the reality of the matter is that most people are not even in the habit of saving and/or investing 10% of their salary into BTC or anything else.. so if you either want to presume some unrealistic circumstances, or you believe that your own circumstances allow you to consistently, persistently and ongoingly invest more than 10% of your salary into bitcoin and maybe even up to 25% or more, then that surely would be better if you are able to accomplish that level of investing into BTC and to not otherwise suffer or devolve into gambling rather than investing.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

Because if someone can have a purchasing power of $51 dollar when btc is $120k per btc, I don't see any reason why such could not be done now it is bearly half of the value.

You are fantasizing. We are not trying to figure out what this hypothetical person is going to invest based on the BTC price, we trying to figure out how much to invest into BTC based on the persons readiness, willingness and ability to conjure up a sufficient amount of money and to actually invest that money into BTC rather than buying sodas with it.

This guy has no fucking clue which way the BTC price is going to go with any level of certainty... even though he outlines some theories and he is bullish about bitcoin in generally and he believes that it is generally likely to go up, that is why he invests into it.. he believes in bitcoin's generally overall upwards price direction and realizes that it is not guaranteed, but he still plots out some possible scenarios for where the BTC price might go and tries to see where he might be in the future...

In this particular situation, the guy is just investing as much as he is ready, willing and able to do at time 1 and consistently, persistently and ongoingly investing in the outlined pattern through the next 10 years. and hoping for the best..

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on Today at 01:34:34 AM

I am just sudjesting not actually analysing, but want to also hear from you @JJG what do you think? Is it a wise investment approach? Because the amount you buy in the first year at $51 *520 you would have made $2652 which would have been increasing as btc rises. Before the price of bitc could reach $120k you would have made yourself alot of profit.

Between about 2014 to 2020, I was suggesting that normies, newbies, no coiner get the fuck off zero and start to invest $10 per week into bitcoin.

Starting from about mid-2020, I started to tell everyone to invest $100 per week, and suggesting that $100 is the new $10, even though it is way less than $10 from 2014 to 2020.. so yeah, guys would be doing really good if they had invested $10 per week from 2014 until now at $10 per week... but there are still guys who are not able to invest $100 per week, so that is why this particular hypothetical is still starting out at $10 per week, even though surely we could 10x all the numbers and start out at $100 per week if someone is able to start out with $100 per week, then maybe he should still start out at $100 per week, and even in this particular scenario, it is easy enough to multiply all the numbers by 10, and then at the end of 10 years he potentially would have invested $135k, and he would have $1.513 BTC valued around $182k...
'
And yeah, if you think that he is able to front load his investment then he would likely be better off, but not everyone comes to bitcoin with an ability to front load their investment, and many people take 20-30 years or even longer to get to any kind of meaningful investment portfolio that might also include getting to fuck you status... and a lot of normies never get to fuck you status. I think that bitcoin increases your odds to get to fuck you status, and also to get there in a shorter period of time, maybe in 15 years to 20 years but it is not very likely that you can get to fuck you status if you devolve your practices into gambling rather than attempting to be prudent in your aggressively persistent investing.

By the way, when I came to bitcoin in late 2013, I had already been building my investment portfolio for more than 20 years, and so I was personally able to front load my BTC investment to a certain degree, but it still took me a whole year before I was able to get my BTC allocation up to 10 % of my investment portfolio, but I was not even sure that 10% was my target until after a whole year buying BTC, and since the BTC price was dropping through 2014, I ended up spending another year continuing to buy BTC, so my allocation ended up getting to right around 13.5% by the end of 2015.. so it can take a while to build up these kinds of matters, even if you have funds that you are able to dedicate to the matter.

On the other hand, an overwhelming number of people are too damned scared to be aggressive in their investing into BTC, in a consistent and ongoing way, such as figuring out some amount to invest and then to get their shit together and their commitment towards investing.. so if you speculate that people come into bitcoin and they are able to be all gung ho about it, you seem to be in a fantasy land, even if there might be some people who are better able to front load their BTC investment... or even to end up over investing into bitcoin so that they can stop investing (and maybe after a few years to just engage in maintenance of their BTC holdings rather than accumulation, but most people are not going to get to that point in which they can stop or slow down their accumulation and transition into maintenance in less than 15-20 years, even if they do everything right or as best as they are able to do).

Quote from: peter0425 on Today at 02:48:57 AM

50 dollars monthly is not that bad specially if you know which coin you are investing (this means altcoin of course)

Fuck shitcoins. That is retarded.

Quote from: peter0425 on Today at 02:48:57 AM

but if you are confident about Bitcoin to bring you better result for that amount then yeah put that 50 bucks in bitcoin monthly and that would be 600$ a year, that for me is too small talking about how pricey bitcoin nowadays.
but this is for OP to decide, he has His strategy and we are just giving Him second option and better understanding about things in life.

yes.. and fuck shitcoins.. that is dumb.. especially if you are investing rather than gambling.. and this thread is not about shitcoins, but of course, you can do what you like, including gambling rather than investing..