Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 03:31:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 19, 2024, 01:58:51 PM

Hypos 7-9 as 2.5 years

Hypo-7 With 86 Bitcoins one should feel comfortable that he has adequate number of Bitcoins. Its a good position but to reach there you must have good amount of starting capital.

It does seem that you understand these hypotheticals fairly well MusaPk, yet you and I are still interpreting the situations differently, and perhaps part of the reason remains that I am striving to incorporate several investment presumptions that I consider to be best (or better) practices, while also leaving a bit of latitude into the hypotheticals and at the same time showing the role of DCA in each of the scenarios.

Accordingly, we should attempt to recognize both some of our assumptions about Hypo 7, and also appreciate where his BTC portfolio is in comparison to how much he has invested, and surely we should be able to recognize and appreciate that even someone with 2.5 years invested into bitcoin has not had enough time for his BTC's value to really begin to show the power of compounding - so in some sense you seem to be getting overly distracted by the quantity of BTC accumulated rather than where the BTC holdings are in comparison to the historical performance of this asset class. Yeah, of course, I am neither saying that history is going to repeat itself or that there are guarantees to future performance - yet I am saying that over the last 2.5 years, this Hypo 7 guy has been building up his BTC holdings within his own capacities and surely the evidence should support that 2.5 years is hardly enough time in the market whether we are talking about continuing to build a BTC holdings and/or considering a time in which starting to cash out (versus something like BTC portfolio maintanence) would be amongst reasonable/prudent and/or longer term investor kinds of considerations.

Again, let's look more specifically at what kind of guy Hypo 7 is (which in my series of hypos should be relatively similar to Hypos 1, 4, 10 & 13, even though his main difference would be how much time in the market he had and also perhaps his perception of BTC market status that differs from Hypos 1, 4, 10 & 13 because the BTC market would have had been in a different place for each of these guys as compared to the others, which surely should have some kind of an effect on the initial stages of their BTC investing approach). In this particular case, Hypo 7 likely came into bitcoin 2.5 years ago with a goal to get his BTC investment amount to be somewhere between 5% and 25% of his overall investment portfolio holdings, and surely these guys - set 1 of Hypos (1, 4, 7, 10 & 13) - share a kind of presumption that they have already established a decent-size investment portfolio, so they are ready, wiling and/or able to lump sum invest into bitcoin, which is not likely the case with the other two sets of hypos - either set 2 of Hypos (2, 5, 8, 11 & 14). or set 3 of Hypos (3, 6, 9, 12 & 15). And, from my point of view, they are also better off to figure out ways to DCA into bitcoin as well as their lump sum entrance.. and surely DCA could be something steady and/or it could also be supplemented with buying on dips.. which may be an extra side budget and might not exactly fit into a DCA definition.. even though sometimes the practices of DCA and buying on dips could end up playing off on each other in terms of how much a person might want to buy at any given time; however for the sake of these kinds of hypotheticals, I am largely attempting to avoid fucking around with too many variables (that would involve buying on dips) and so it is much easier to project a kind of general average amount of purchase by use of historical DCA estimations... using historical DCA estimations likely makes the results more pure and objective rather than attempts at overly spinning results in terms of figuring out when a guy might have had figured out that we were in a dip or we were not in a dip, which those kinds of measurements would be all over the place.

So, if this Hypo 7 guy is aiming for 5% to 25% of his investment portfolio to be in BTC, there could be decent presumptions that he should have had been able to reach his target levels somewhere between 1-2 years, unless some guys might hold back somewhat in their in getting to their full BTC investment allocation target level based on their own views of what they might believe the BTC market to do - which surely hardly should be the case of the last 2.5 years, especially since this particular timeline ends up involving both a top and a pretty damned BIG correction right in the midst of it, so there could well be some presumptions that these kinds of guys would have ended up meeting whatever their BTC investment allocation target levels within 1-2 years and even more so within 2.5 years - yet at the same time, we can see that the Hypo 7 guys is still not even in profits, when it comes to measuring the value of his holdings in terms of the 200-week moving average. He has invested $3 million, but in terms of the 200-WMA, his holdings are still only worth $2.666 million, and even though spot price valuations are in profits with a $4.472 million valuation, the guy may well continue to be inspired to continue to buy BTC, since the actual BTC price (and the 200-WMA) are still pretty close to his average cost per BTC, which is nearly $35k.

Surely, I would not suggest that it is obvious what the guy is going to do, and maybe it depends on the size of his overall investment portfolio whether he is currently overly allocated or if he might feel that he is right on his target.. so if we consider a $3 million investment amount, then that would perhaps suggest that if he were within his target then his overall investment portfolio would have a size of somewhere between $12 million (for a 25% BTC allocation) and $60 million (for a 5% BTC allocation), and so if he might have overshot whatever his own allocation goals were, then he may well end up feeling that he has enough BTC, so he might convert into more of a maintenance mode rather than an accumulation mode, but in any case, it seems way too soon that he would be ready for getting into any kind of liquidation mode, unless he were to have some unusual circumstances of either some kind of health emergency of himself or his family or an age concern (yet we should be able to rule out the age concern since any kind of normal or base case kind of guy with best (and/or better) kinds of BTC investment practices would not have had been investing into bitcoin under normal kinds of circumstances with less than a 4-year investment timeline.. so the elderly situation would have had been an exceptional situation rather than the normal kind of situations that I am trying to present a hypo 7 kind of guy).

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 03:31:26 PM

Hypo-9 This is where person like me fits in i.e. 100 dollars per week. For me if I have 0.5 Bitcoins in the 2.5 years then that's not a bad deal. Since we are investing 100$ per week.

Well MusaPk, either you meet the timeline requirements or you don't, and sure you could end up having a position that is somewhere between one timeline and another timeline, yet hopefully you understand that in this particular Hypo 9 situation, this guy would have had already reached right around 0.5 BTC if he had been investing for the 2.5 years, and the link within the hypo shows where the history would have had gotten a guy who would have had been able to be consistent in his DCA investment in that kind of a $100 per week amount starting from August 15, 2021 to present. So if you have been into investing in bitcoin for a similar amount of time, you can look at your own performance results and compare with Hypo 9 to see if your results are similar to his or if you might have outperformed or under performed him.

Your forum registration date @MusaPk shows August 2022 and not August 2021, so shouldn't you be comparing your own results to Hypo 12 rather than to Hypo 9, unless you had been investing in bitcoin for right around a year longer than your forum registration date, which I am not going to deny to be possible. In my own situation I started investing in bitcoin right around 3 months prior to my forum registration date.. so my first investments in bitcoin were late November 2013 and my forum registration date is late February 2014.

For some reason through my ongoing back and forth interactions with you, it seems that I keep having to repeat that past performance does not give us very much evidence regarding future performance, except probably that we might presume that it takes more dollars to get similar results, but it still does not negate that DCA is likely going to continue to be amongst the best of the performance vehicles for bitcoin in terms of what normies would be both be able to practically apply towards their BTC accumulation and while at the same time attempting to invest as aggressively as they are able to accomplish without overdoing it.

And maybe another thing that I should point out (or repeat) is that with any of these examples (whether referring to sets 1, 2 or 3 of the hypos), we should be able to extrapolate guys with differing budget sizes, whether their budget size might be 10x higher, 10x lower or some other variant in the middle of those, and merely multiplying or dividing by 10 is going to give very similar results in terms of returns, yet we might not really know the extent to which any guy who is employing these DCA practices is falling more on the side of aggressiveness or more on the side of whimpiness, and the examples show that only the guys in set 1 of the hypos is in a position to start out with lump sum investing, and the guys in set 2 of the hypos likely already has a very good income with a decently large amount of discretionary/disposable income and the guys in set 3 of the hypos are likely struggling a lot more in terms of making sure that they actually have discretionary/disposable income on a regular basis.. so in terms of emergency funds, set 1 of the hypos has all kinds of emergency funds already in place and is already used to managing those kinds of things... set 2 of the hypos is in a place that he mostly has emergency funds and/or can fairly easily build an emergency fund, reserves and float, and set 3 of the hypos is likely in a lot of need for a lot of work to build and maintain emergency funds, yet even set 3 can catch up and surpass set 2 and/or set 1 especially if he enters into bitcoin at earlier dates.

You see hypo 3 (which is a set 3), and you compare him with either hypo 10 or hypo 13, we can see that hypo 10 had to pay nearly 25x higher prices than hypo 3, and sure he was able to pass up hypo 3, but there surely are going to be a lot of folks in the same class as hypo 10 who were not able to pass up hypo 3, and so hypo 3 is putting himself into a higher class of wealth of person and surely some folks in set 1 are losing their status because of either their whimpiness in regards to bitcoin, or their waiting around too long before getting started in bitcoin, and it may well be the case that there are many folks who fit hypo 13 (and perhaps I need to make another series of Hypo 16, 17 and 18 who still have not gotten into bitcoin) will never be able to pass up hypo 3 - even though hypo 13 and hypo 3 come from different classes of investors, and in bitcoin there are going to surely continue to play out variations of those kinds of wealth redistribution matters and also that relatively poor people will continue to move into the rich class based on their consistency, persistency and their ongoing action in regards to accumulating and holding bitcoin as compared with rich folks who still have not even reached newbie status in their bitcoin journey because they continue to fail/refuse to act to create a BTC buying plan and to act upon such plan in order to accumulate bitcoin and so through their failure/refusal to act to accumulate and hold bitcoin, they choose to keep themselves as either no coiners or low coiners and continue to be on the losing side of the wealth redistribution that seems to be currently taking place.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 03:31:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 19, 2024, 01:58:51 PM

Even though the overall theme is to attempt to show both how the difference of time can play out, but also how the difference in wealth at the time of getting started with bitcoin, I realize that some of the information might be a bit too confusing for some people to follow, so I may go back through the Hypos from time to time to try to edit and clarify the presentation of the contents.

All Hypo's are excellent way to understand different scenarios of investing into Bitcoin. It's just about spending some time and effort.
Kudos to your effort of editing it with time to time.

In my response to this post, I am now starting to think that it could come in handy to attempt to describe the situation of Hypos 16, 17 and 18 in terms of their continuing to fail/refuse to actually plan and/or to act.. and surely the most important part seems to be the action part, but there could well be a planning part too... and so it could be interesting to consider the situations of the no coiners who still have not either gotten into the BTC accumulation planning stage or the BTC accumulation acting stage.

At some point I may well need to stop with this.. or maybe I would need to convert it into a book - or a chapter of a book.. ... hahahahahaha

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 03:31:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 19, 2024, 01:58:51 PM

You are correct that they all use DCA, but also ONLY the wealthiest incorporates both lump sum and DCA, since he can.. the others are exclusively DCA. The wealthiest who starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13. The medium only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14. The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15.

I am happy that I am in Hypo 7 i.e. the one where wealthiest lies.

You are ONLY closest to Hypo 7 if you have been in BTC for 2.5 years, and if you are somewhere in the ballpark of August 2022 for your registration date, then from my perspective, you would be closer to hypo 10, even if you are working towards getting closer to hypo 7 - especially since one of the main factors in terms of differentiating 7 and 10 is how much time that you have been in the process of accumulating BTC. So you tell me? What is your time in service (BTC accumulation)? Are you really closer to 2.5 years as compared with 1.25 years or is it that you are prematurely presuming your results prior to doing the time?

Am I being too harsh on you? hahahahahahaha