Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:37:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 21, 2024, 06:00:30 PM

It does seem that you understand these hypotheticals fairly well MusaPk, yet you and I are still interpreting the situations differently, and perhaps part of the reason remains that I am striving to incorporate several investment presumptions that I consider to be best (or better) practices, while also leaving a bit of latitude into the hypotheticals and at the same time showing the role of DCA in each of the scenarios.

There is nothing wrong with it. Humans have this nature, we have different interpretation of same thing.

No problem. I had been trying to highlight some of the area where I perceived us to be thinking about some of these matters differently, and even my assessment of the difference might not be correct, since sometimes meaning and/or intention can be lost in writing.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:37:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 21, 2024, 06:00:30 PM

yet I am saying that over the last 2.5 years, this Hypo 7 guy has been building up his BTC holdings within his own capacities and surely the evidence should support that 2.5 years is hardly enough time in the market

Fair enough, since this is crux of Hypo - 7

It can be a bit strange because I had been attempting to add some presumptions, and surely some of the budgeting matters are intended to have some relations within the timelines and then maybe even showing that even if a later entrant comes into BTC, they are likely going to need to have a BIGGER budget than the guy from the earlier timeline, and even with an earlier budget, the later entrant guys might not have much if any chance to actually catch up to the earlier time guys who might have even had a smaller budget.

I had been thinking about attempting to get into some comparisons with some of the earlier arguments that you seemed to have been making about a kind of preferably for lump sum, and it does not seem easy to really show my counter-arguments with examples, and one of the defects with the current hypotheticals as they all currently stand is that there is they all include DCA.. even the Lump sum guys of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 are including DCA.. so they do a lump sum and then they DCA thereafter.

I was thinking that maybe even with Hypos 1, 4 & 7, there could be another hypo added that might be labelled as Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a, and so the underlying presumption would be that if we can already figure out their total investment, then we can figure out the amount that they invested per year, so 10 years, versus 5 years versus 2.5 years, and perhaps, our Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a would ONLY invest in BTC with a lump sum of 1 year's investment amount, and then they would thereafter just sit on their investment.. so they have pretty much invested a whole year of their investment budget at time 1, and so presumptively, they are going to end up with a lower cost per BTC, but they are going to have way fewer BTC, and so part of my point would be to attempt to show that it is not always advantageous to just invest one time in a lump sum kind of a way (even if you are able to do it), and the ones that supplement with DCA and even the ones with a lower budget may well end up spending way more on their BTC (even per BTC), but in the longer run, may of us would have rather been the guy with more BTC, even if our costs per BTC would have had been higher than the lump sum only guys.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:37:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:03 AM

86 BTC - Around $3 million invested, average cost per BTC $34.9k, valued at around $2.666 million based on 200-WMA and $4.472 million spot price.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 21, 2024, 06:00:30 PM

At some point I may well need to stop with this.. or maybe I would need to convert it into a book - or a chapter of a book.. ... hahahahahaha

Jokes apart. You must preserve this in one thread. So it may be readily available for reference. Also it may be referenecd again and again so more people will get to know about that.

It seem that I already took your advice on the point of having a place to reference these hypos, and that was part of the reason that I added the hypos to opening post 2 of my investment ideas thread.

So tentatively, I am considering the possibility of adding Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a in order to juxtapose a lump sum ONLY example.. but then also I had been considering adding Hypos 16, 17 & 18, and those would be no coiners who have neither any BTC but they have no plan to get into BTC. Of course, these guys could convert into Hypos 13, 14 & 15 by merely creating a plan in which they would be able to act upon, but they are not yet to that stage, and it could take many years or even many cycles before they finally convert into Hypos 13, 14 & 15.

One of my concern with so many hypos is that they can start to feel a bit cluttered and maybe even confusing - since why do we need so many examples, and surely another problem is that the examples capture a point in time, so there could be some aspects in regards to the information that is less than evergreen... meaning that the information for some of the timelines might need to be changed from time to time.. once every 4-year cycle, perhaps?

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:37:35 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 21, 2024, 06:00:30 PM

So you tell me? What is your time in service (BTC accumulation)? Are you really closer to 2.5 years as compared with 1.25 years or is it that you are prematurely presuming your results prior to doing the time?

Am I being too harsh on you? hahahahahahaha

There is nothing harsh JJG.

Hypo 7 has invested 3 million while Hypo 10 has invested 2 million dollars into Bitcoin and honestly I am no where near to that money.

It seems to me that Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 are largely meant to show the situation of guys who already have some amount of money that they are able to lump sum invest, and the earlier guys Hypos 1 and 4 are relatively less wealthy than the later guys, which is largely attempting to show that there is a need for more capital as a later investor in order to attempt to even come close to catching up to the earlier investors, yet at the same time, I am not attempting to be exclusionary with my use of larger amounts for any of the guys, especially since there could still be cases in which relatively poor guys have come to bitcoin and have already built up some investment funds, so maybe a guy who had been investing $10 to $100 per week in non-bitcoin investments in the last 5-10 years may well have been able to build up both investments and even an emergency fund, but that same guy might not have a lot of money, but he would still end up fitting into the category of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 - since he is a guy who is able to lump sum invest.

Maybe such guy built up $10 per week which is $520 per year which is $5,200 in 10 years, and yeah, if he built up 10x that amount with $100 per week, then he would have built up an investment portfolio of $52k, and both guys fit into the same category even though the amounts are different.

Another assumption of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 is that they have their finances in pretty decent order with an emergency fund and reserves and likely manageable debt, even though I don't get too much into discussions of debt in these hypotheticals, even though these days, debt problems are quite common accross very many of the segments of society.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:37:35 AM

Date of registration doesn't mean we start accumulating from that date. I already said that even after you register here, it takes time to understand Bitcoin and how to accumulate it effictively.

That makes sense. I do frequently presume the registration date, and it would not be easy to keep track of the circumstances of all the forum members, so sometimes we might need to be reminded about the circumstances, especially if the guys might be suggesting that they fit into one of the hypotheticals more than the others, which you ended up doing that in your earlier response by saying that you fit with hypo 7.. which surely would have had been problematic if your timeline was not close to 2.5 years.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 08:37:35 AM

If I talk about myself, I am started accumulating Bitcoin in DCA manner less then year ago.

So, yeah, if you are only getting close to 1 year investing into bitcoin you would be closest in terms of comparing yourself to Hypos 10, 11 & 12.. and maybe if I end up adding hypo Hypos 10a, then you could be close to that... Probably the more difficult hypotheticals are the ones with the shortest period of time investing, and even the 2.5 year hypotheticals don't really have a very long track record like the ones with 5 years and 10 years... and so I have been criticized for being too random and arbitrary in terms of the facts and the conclusions of what I am attempting to show, and surely there is some truth in those kinds of accusations, yet at the same time, guys have to try to decide these kinds of matters on their own, to plug in their own facts and hopefully come to the seemingly more correct conclusions that it tends to take a whole fucking lot of time to build up an investment portfolio, even if you do everything right and even if you attempt to be aggressive with your approach, and there could be ways that guys build up their investment portfolio and then end up getting lucky with a lot of BTC price performance in a short period of time, but at the same time, there still need to be choices in regards to how much to put into the investment and perhaps to even attempt to see if too much risk might be being taken if you might be investing beyond your budget or something like that... because even though it can take a long time to build an investment portfolio, it may even take longer to recover, and/or recovery might not be possible if some guys are gambling rather than investing with their time, energy and financial value.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 08:49:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 21, 2024, 06:00:30 PM

You are ONLY closest to Hypo 7 if you have been in BTC for 2.5 years, and if you are somewhere in the ballpark of August 2022 for your registration date, then from my perspective, you would be closer to hypo 10, even if you are working towards getting closer to hypo 7 - especially since one of the main factors in terms of differentiating 7 and 10 is how much time that you have been in the process of accumulating BTC. So you tell me? What is your time in service (BTC accumulation)? Are you really closer to 2.5 years as compared with 1.25 years or is it that you are prematurely presuming your results prior to doing the time?

Am I being too harsh on you? hahahahahahaha

It is possible to view Hypos 7 and 10 as distinct turning points in the Bitcoin accumulation process, and time is definitely an important factor. It's critical to have a realistic perspective on your current stage of the journey and avoid putting yourself ahead of yourself by making comparisons to those who have traveled a longer distance. Nevertheless, even if you are aware that reaching your objectives will take time, it is still crucial to set and work toward them. Thus, it is reasonable to aim for both Hypo 7 and 10.

I am not sure if you are reading those correctly, because largely with Hypos 7 and 10 I am attempting to describe the state in which someone comes to bitcoin, and of course, hypo 7 has 2.5 years into bitcoin and hypo 10 has 1.25 years into bitcoin, so they are already building from the state in which they came into bitcoin. So either you are already at that state when you get into bitcoin or you are not.

The state of hypos 7 and 10 already have emergency funds and reserves in order, so they are presumptively already in a good financial state when they start to invest into bitcoin, and that is why they are able to start out with a lump sum and then to supplement with DCA.

Of course someone could start out fitting within a state that more closely resembles hypos 8 or 9 or hypos 11 and 12, which are those who have 2.5 years and 1.25 years in bitcoin respectively.

However, already with the hypos, I am also presuming that any of the guys who do not have an ability to lump sum invest, then the first year or two of investing into, they would be building their emergency funds and reserves... and of course, the presumption is that hypos 8 and hypo 11, are already in a better position than either hypo 9 or hypo 12 at the time of getting into bitcoin.. so in the process, they are already investing into bitcoin and building themselves into a better position in terms of the solidness of their emergency fund and reserves.

Another thing is that there are presumptions that at the time of their entrance into bitcoin, hypo 7 has an emergency fund and reserves, hypo 8 has an emergency fund and no reserves and hypo 9 has neither an emergency fund and reserves. However, after 2.5 years investing into bitcoin hypo 8 should have had gotten enough of his shit together to establish a reserves (but a reserves is not really mandatory until there are desires to start to buy on dips and things like that, so there could be cases that hypo 8 just continues to maximize his disposable income into bitcoin so he would not establish a reserve) and the same with hypo 9, after 2.5 years he surely would establish an emergency fund, but not necessarily a reserve because a reserve presumes holding back some of the DCA.. and so the longer that any of them are into bitcoin the more likely they would transition into having a reserve as well as their emergency fund and an emergency fund that is 3-6 months or more is way more basic than having reserves.. and the more aggressive that a person is in his investment or the more unstable is his income, the more likely that he is going to need a larger amount of an emergency fund and/or reserves.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 08:49:47 AM

Long-term goals can benefit from being visualized in terms of stages and levels. More like a video game. Think of each stage or level as a kind of "boss fight" that signifies a distinct turning point in your adventure.

I am not sure if that would be completely correct except for there is a kind of passage of time, so if a person is brand new and starting out, then he might start at hypo 15, then go to hypo 12 and then go to hypo 9 and then go to hypo 6.. .. and the main thing would just be the passing of time and attempting to stay consistent with his investment.. and so he might not reach the exact same levels but he might have comparison points with where he should be and whether he overperformed or under performed.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 08:49:47 AM

Hypo 7 would be equivalent to Level 1 in this instance, and Hypo 10 to Level 2.

But you seem to be going backwards, but at least hypos 7 and 10 are in the same category of someone who had already started out in bitcoin with an ability to lump sum invest.

Quote from: Gormicsta on Today at 08:49:47 AM

As you advance through the stages, you gain strength and resilience. Each level has its own set of obstacles and rewards.

That part is true..,. and maybe there have been quite a few of us longer term bitcoiners suggesting that getting through a whole bitcoin cycle (4 years) can really show a certain amount of evidence in regards to how any person had been able to get through that whole cycle and then if he might need to consider the extent to which he might need to reassess what he has done and whether the next 4 years (or whatever additional period) is going to be in need of further adjustments in terms of ongoing accumulation or if maybe the person had gotten into a maintenance stage at some point within the first 4 years, which surely seems less likely with a pure DCA strategy, yet surely there are going to be differences in terms of if someone had already been able to bring other financial resources into bitcoin within the first 4 years.

And, in the end, these are all discretionary matters, in which each of us has complete control over our own approach towards investing into bitcoin and the employment of BTC accumulation strategies.