Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 09:39:48 AM

Quote from: Tmoonz on February 26, 2024, 05:00:00 PM

and increase demand and historically it has been so , there is a believe that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH six months after the halving. Although most time historical data can only become a quide and all crystal balls can become cloudy meaning that what happened in the past may or may not happen in the future.

In the context of Bitcoin, we probably have two more cycles of UP, no?

In the context of bitcoin, it is designed to pump forever.

So if you are anticipating an end date to bitcoins pumping, growth and even ongoing building of its network effects, then you probably do not understand bitcoin very well.

If you think about network effects in light of Trace Mayer's outline of the topic, its a way to talk about adoption in terms of various angles of growth but also that network effects build upon each other and as the network effects grow, the asset becomes more and more valuable.

There should hardly be any expectation that bitcoin is going to even be close to mature in a couple more cycles, even though maybe we could speculate that it could take 50-200 years.. .. and yeah, there could be sparks that cause bitcoin to be adopted more suddenly in gradually and then suddenly kinds of scenarios, but it is also difficult to really figure out how the various legs of the journey will play out since there are knowns, known unknowns, unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and sometimes when the unknowns become more known or knowable, then at least better prognostications can be built from those points forward... but it is not like the process of growth ever ends, including something like a protocol layer kind of a system, like bitcoin that also allows for both the programing and the transfer of value (in a digital form) without permission.

Quote from: Dunamisx on Today at 10:57:26 AM

Quote from: Tmoonz on February 26, 2024, 05:00:00 PM

Bitcoin halving event are usually followed by a positive price increase as the result of the fact that halving lowers supply with fewer Bitcoin in circulation and increase demand and historically it has been so , there is a believe that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH six months after the halving. Although most time historical data can only become a quide and all crystal balls can become cloudy meaning that what happened in the past may or may not happen in the future.

We should not only focus on the bull market that comes with this, we have to understand that during and after halving, there comes a highly volatile market season whereby you can experience both bull and bear within the same time,

That is bullshit.

We are either in a bull or a bear.. we are not in both, and yeah we might not know which one we are in and also we might have large corrections while we are in a bull market, but that does not take us out of the bull market.. and so sometimes we might not realize that we are no longer in a bull market or a bear market until much later.. . .and then it can be difficult to determine when we have transitioned from one to the other.. . but don't be throwing around the terms too loosely, otherwise you overly create confusion.

For example, we were in a bull run from about early 2019 until late 2021, but we did not realize that we were in a bull market until about May 2019.. and including that some people might have gotten confused about whether we continued to be in a bull market in late 2019 and even in early 2020.. but they were likely sloppy in their language if they are calling that we went from a bull to a bear to a bull to a bear and then back to a bull, when largely we were in a bull market the whole time..

From about early 2022 to mid-2022 we were in a bear market, but we might not have had realized it until about May 2022..

From about early 2023 we have been in a bull market, and some folks might have gotten more confident that we were in a bull market as of mid-2023, but it probably was not clear until around November 2023-ish..

When will be the next bear market? who the fuck knows, but I would presume that we are in a bull market and that we are likely going to continue to have various corrections along the way.. but those corrections are likely not going to take us out of the bull market, and this bull market could last one more year or it could last two more years... so we might not know or realize that we are out of the bull market until several months after the peak, and we also are likely not going to know the peak either, even though people do play those kinds of games, which may or may not be good for either your psychology or your actual ability to mostly hold onto your BTC.. depending on where you are at in your BTC accumulation journey and if you have enough BTC or if you might have too much BTC. which surely gives you more options if you have too many BTC.. and some folks believe that you can never have too many BTC, such as Michael Saylor.. hahahahahaha.. he is a bit of a psycho, but there are others who think similar to him, and it is not completely crazy to have such thoughts about how to manage your BTC once you get to a point of relatively large levels of accumulation.

If we go by your January 2022 forum registration date Dunamisx, as a potential proxy for when you might have gotten into BTC, sure it is possible that you could be at a state of overaccumulation, but difficult to automatically expect something like that, but two years it is possible. In my own bitcoin history, I had felt that I had gotten to a point of overaccumulation in a bit less than 2 years... I am not like Saylor in terms of seemingly maniac focus on BTC accumulation (that might might make sense for his situation, including his business objectives), even though I agree with him about a large number of perspectives about bitcoin in relation to other assets.

Quote from: Dunamisx on Today at 10:57:26 AM

even though the bull will always prevail at the long run,

I am not sure if that makes sense.

Yeah there are some guys who say that bitcoin has been in a bull run since its beginning, which also seems to miss the obvious 4 year cycles which largely end up being 3 up and 1 down for the last 4 cycles..

I surely am not suggesting that past patterns are inevitably going to repeat, but there is some value in terms of looking at trends that might last 1-2 years or more.. .and don't get too caught up in shorter periods and also don't get too detached by too long of a period.. .. so there seems to be some value in terms of both living with bitcoin and attempting to interact with it... even if some folks might have different portions of their BTC stash that they treat differently.. and some portions might be long term storage, other medium term storage and other portions might be used for trading and/or spending.. and the more BTC that you have, the more flexibility that you have in terms of both defining your stashes and also managing your various kinds of BTC stashes with some amount of flexibility and optionality providing.

Quote from: Dunamisx on Today at 10:57:26 AM

but we must never forget on how it such clumsy with high volatility and we must be able to set a target or limit to the rate we may want to sell or buy in other not to miss out big opportunities during this period.

That's true. BTC's volatility is one of its attributes that is most likely inevitable for at least another 20 years, and perhaps for 50 years or more.

Some people like to attempt to consider BTC as becoming more stable and mature and blah blah blah, which sure it is moving in that direction, even though in its current state bitcoin is neither mature nor stable... so we should not be getting lulled into bullshit and inaccurate frameworks that try to describe bitcoin in ways that it is not.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 01:00:45 PM

Quote from: Obim34 on February 26, 2024, 10:55:59 PM

[edited out]

Anywhere below the last ATH is a fucking dip, so it doesn't matter when you bought what matters is if your holding.

There is some truth in what you are saying, especially for anyone who is either early in their BTC accumulation journey and maybe anyone who might have been dollar cost averaging.. even over less than 5 years.. especially if their DCA amounts might not have had been large (even if they have been consistently attempting to be as aggressive as they can be within their own financial abilities). It can take a while to get enough BTC, and if you do not have enough, you likely are not in a position to really play any other tactic other than just ongoing buying... .. yet at the same when the BTC price is going up people get nervous about their ongoing buying, even if they have already concluded that they don't have enough and they have concluded that they are not sufficiently prepared for UP from here.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 01:00:45 PM

Your right about DCA , if anyone has been using DCA since last year till now, he would have been buying on a monthly average that is very low compared to the last ATH and we are expecting the price to reach 60k or even exceed the last ATH this week.

Actually as long as anyone has been consistently buying BTC, it would not matter what price he started at, even if they started at either of the 2021 tops. he is going to be in profits, unless he front-loaded too much at the top and then did not buy enough to bring down his average cost per BTC in the last 2-3 years.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 01:00:45 PM

But I don't care, I have currently increased my DCA allocation for the main time till bitcoin exceed the ATH then I'll bring it back to normal,

That is called front running.. and nothing wrong with that.. even though you still have to be prepared for the possibility that the BTC price could end up moving against you. We never know with these kinds of things, even though it does seem that there is a lot of evidence that there continues to be a lot of UPwards pressures on BTC prices that is likely to last for several months and maybe even through this whole year.. .. but at the same time.. we cannot always know.. so we just do our best to prepare for anything while realizing that the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to make sure that we have as many BTC as we are able to have.. .. but if we are not planning on selling for 4-10 years or more, there may or may not be any advantages in overly stressing our finances in order to acquire such BTC and/or to attempt to front run anticipated BTC price moves.

Quote from: Troytech on Today at 01:00:45 PM

I don't want to miss out on this last set of dips we are seeing right now, if you are looking at the chart on a time from of 5 years then you would understand that all this while we have been on a very long period of dips, so even those trying to time the dip has been fooling themselves cause we have been on a dip ever since the last ATH 😀.

There surely is some truth in that... but we also have to be careful in terms of overly relying on patterns of past BTC price movements.

Quote from: promise444c5 on Today at 01:36:18 PM

The best time to start DCA or buy BTC is now,the second best time is still now.

You are missing the expression, which is the best time to buy was yesterday, and the second best time is today..

but yeah, many guys actively participating in this thread likely already realize the value of getting the fuck started rather than waiting around.. and sometimes it can be more difficult for those who are just coming into bitcoin to get started and there can be worries when buying while the price is going up.. but there is still a dilemma.. because the price may or may not come back down.. none of us really know, so each of us has to figure out for ourselves in regards to how wee want to deploy our cash and whether we want to hold back with some of it.. which tends to be a bit easier the longer that we have been in.. so it is likely to be easier for the guy who had been buying the last 6-12 months as compared to the guy who just started buying in the last month or 2 as compared to the guy who is just setting up an account today who might not have had made any purchases, yet.

Quote from: adpinbr on Today at 02:18:25 PM

Quote from: Dunamisx on Today at 10:57:26 AM

[edited out]

We want to invest in bitcoin we should only focus on the bullish market so therefore I believe that those people who invest during the time the price of bitcoin is low that the people that make profit when the price go up so I will advise every beginner to invest during the time the price of bitcoin is low so that they will not experience any loss, to accumulate bitcoin, you have to wait experience having before you purchase bitcoin, so that you will not be victim when the price go down.

some people who invest in bitcoin always be rewarded of it when they experience bullrun, so I believe that it’s a good investors that know the actual time they can invest and make huge profits, in normal circumstances the best time to invest is during bearish seasons.

You seem to be bordering on trying to describe trading rather than long term investing.

Yeah, sure it is better to be able to buy as much BTC as you can, and it is better to be able to buy BTC at a lower price, yet in the long run, the long term investor might not need to be thinking about whether he has 30% or 70% profits, because it could well end up being the case that he is waiting for a longer period, and whether his holdings are profitable (and meeting fuck you status, for example) due to appreciation of the asset or due to ongoing aggressive investing, the person may largely just be aiming at increasing all of his investments until he reaches a state in which he has more options and is able to start to potentially live off his assets and to say goodbye to having to do certain kinds of work that he would prefer not to do.. but to have options can take years and years and years, rather than being concerned about short term profitability of his BTC holdings.

Don't get me wrong. It surely feels good to be in profits, and so some of us might spend a lot of time with our BTC not being in profits and then little by little the increase in value and become more and more in profits, but there also may be times in which they fluctuate between being in profits and not being in profits, but if we are not selling in the short-to-medium term, then we can either just continue to accumulate BTC or maybe even transition into a point in which we are not placing as much emphasis on BTC accumulation because we have assessed our situation and concluded that we largely have either enough BTC or more than enough BTC.

Quote from: Justbillywitt on Today at 06:46:02 PM

But one thing we have to know about investment is this, "the higher the risk, the higher the profitability. So without risk there is no investment.

That is what shitcoiners say all the time, and they end up broke because many times they end up gambling rather than investing, even if they might think that they are investing, but they have such superficial understanding what they are investing into and maybe they do not have too many clues regarding what is the meaning or risk and how do you either assess it and/or establish sound practices in order to mitigate many aspects of the risk.. whether that is figuring out position size, or what to invest into or how to manage personal finances (including but not limited to planning for income and expenses - as well as establishing emergency funds, reserves and/or a float)...