Quote from: tertius993 on February 29, 2024, 09:08:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 29, 2024, 02:43:41 AM

In regards to bitcoin, gold has been performing pretty badly, and you can zoom in and out of this timeline
https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/
right now it takes more than 200 oz of gold to buy 1 BTC,

I snipped the rest, but there is something very wrong with that chart.

Gold is currently about $2,037 per ounce, so you need about 30 or 31 ounces of gold to buy one bitcoin (current price $62,900) not 200.

O.k.. maybe the unit is not correct, but the trend seems to be correct, and if we look at bitcoin's overall market cap compared with gold, the trend is the same.. bitcoin is currently right around 1/10th or maybe 1/12th of gold's market cap and bitcoin is likely going to fairly easily get to 10x gold's market cap in this cycle or maybe the next 2-3 cycles, and then surely the time between bitcoin getting from 10x to 1,000x gold's market cap could take a while longer.. maybe 50-200 years.. and so we cannot really know for sure, even if we can see the trend, and we can even understand why bitcoin right around 1,000x better than gold... in terms of its various monetary characteristics, scarcity, divisibility, verifiability, portability, censorship resistance, costs in terms of needs for use of third-parties.

So, even if the details are not exactly clear, we should be able to recognize the ongoing power of bitcoin in terms of our own investment allocation choices, and if you want to keep a lot of gold instead of bitcoin because you believe that it serves some meaningful financial purpose (from here forward), then that's your choice.

I will give you that there could be some Armageddon-type purposes to keep some physical gold, but that still likely is pretty low in terms of how much preparation that you really need in that direction as compared to bitcoin - even though bitcoin relies on communications and even electricity/power.

Quote from: Pi-network314159 on February 29, 2024, 10:06:52 AM

Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 05:25:43 AM

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

10 years from now no body will assume or think that had it been they baught btc in 2024, that such figure of about %34600 would have been achieved in 2034, the value is an unrealistic value. I may not know much in cryptocurrency but I know if a coin pumps from maybe 0.000125 to $20 or #30 it will be difficult to pump in thousands again. meaning it will take time to grow. It might even take 10years to complete %500. ever since bitcoin has grown so high it has never grown by 50percent or or %100percent a day but may take 1year to make it atain %100. Check-in from the last ATH of bitcoin, when btc fell below the ATH. It took Bitcoin 3years to regain a lost of almost %70 since 2021 to 2024, if not more than. So it might just take btc %100 or%150 to complete a ten years cycle. Let's take a look at this JJG table of absumbtion.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5469290.msg63695151#msg63695151
Though this table was made on absumbtion but there is still more realistic value in growth compeard to this your value of %34600 if you check intervals of ten year might just be a %100 or highest %200 you can check the value in the first year 1/14/2025 was $59.999.40 and the value in the 10th year 1/14/34 at $119.939.08 that is approximately %100 .

That chart that you are showing from me was for the purpose of someone inputting whatever his own expectations might be regarding BTC price increases while he is investing into BTC and using an 8% per year BTC price appreciation as a potential assumption that a guy might plug in to the spreadsheet.

When it comes to attempts to predict future BTC prices, personally, I like to refer to my entry-level fuck you status chart, which tries to project BTC price bottoms and it uses the 200-WMA to show past changes in the 200-WMA. .while at the same time attempting to make some kind of a reasonable prediction of future direction (that is of the bottom BTC price of the 200-WMA in order to figure out how many BTC that anyone might need to reach default entry-level fuck you status of the chart that is implied that fuck you status has an entry-level value of $2 million).

So that entry-level fuck you status chart shows mid-2034 as having a bottom (a 200-WMA) of nearly $287k - and of course, the chart should be updated each 6 months to attempt to verify if the 200-WMA is tracking above or below expectations.. so personally, I am expecting the chart to change every 6 months, and right now for the current 6 months it is right around 20% or more higher than expectations, and the next update will be in the end of May.

Quote from: bayu7adi on February 29, 2024, 11:28:49 AM

We see there is a difference in maturity here too, what makes Bitcoin gain higher is because of the age factor. Bitcoin is the newest while Gold and Property have been investment media for many people for a long time. Just think about the next 10 years.

If gold is able to provide 2x profits and property is able to provide 15x profits or at worst maybe 10x, can bitcoin get 350x again?

While currently the price of BTC is 62k, if that 350x could happen again, do you believe the price of BTC will be $21.7m per BTC in 10 years?
A multiplier of that size only came because Bitcoin was still in its infancy 10 years ago. Meanwhile, the other instruments you mentioned are not babies anymore.

Part of the reason that my fuck you status chart is showing fairly conservative with only about $31,500 and $287k , which is ONLY a 9.1x increase in the bottom price, yet I bet that bitcoin outperforms gold, equities and property, and I doubt that you get 3x to 5x increases in property in terms of real terms.

Quote from: livingfree on February 29, 2024, 01:13:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2024, 01:06:48 AM

Quote from: oktana on February 27, 2024, 11:12:54 PM

Quote from: livingfree on February 27, 2024, 10:30:24 PM

I am not sure if I will also be around after a decade but it is said that time is likely the safest speculation that Bitcoin will hit a million dollars.

But we do not know how this cycles that keep on changing every time we are on it. It might be quicker for the next few years and cycles to come and we might get too close to it.

I'll hold but I won't miss to sell because that's how it should go and we have to enjoy taking profits.

What do you mean by not so sure you’ll be around after a decade?

He means that when it comes to bitcoin, he is a weak hand, and he does not have confidence in it as an investment that will continue to gravitate value into it.

Most likely he does not understand bitcoin very well, and sure if there is some time in which bitcoin seems that it is losing the strength of its investment thesis, then we could get out of it if we can see that in advance.

if we believe that bitcoin has decently good chances of going to zero all of a sudden or suffering some other kind of sudden crash in value in which we would not be able to get out our value, then we should modify our position size to account for those kinds of possible scenarios.. .that does not mean all or nothing in bitcoin, but still people can choose their position size and some people will end up benefiting more from the ongoing wealth transfer from no-coiners to coiners than others... and your ability to be on the receiving side rather than the losing side may well have to do with your actually having some coin.. Your choice regarding how much of a position size you believe to be a valid trade off, even if you have doubts in the strength of bitcoin's long term investment thesis.

Come on JJG, please don't be too harsh on me. My portfolio is composed of majority in Bitcoin. What I mean by that is I don't know if I'll still be living by that time.

You don't know what I am experiencing right now and what may happen to me by tomorrow or after a decade and that's why I've said I don't know if I'll still be around by that time.

Fair enough. I am not trying to be any more hard on you than you deserve, and sure I was speculating a little bit in regards to why you said what you said, but now you explained further to show that I was not too far off in my superficial assessment of the situation. ..

And in the end, it does not really matter very much about your own personal position or situation. That is up to you to determine. We are responding in a public thread, so if there are ambiguities, then members should be attempting to clarify those ambiguities, when feasible.

Quote from: livingfree on February 29, 2024, 01:13:39 PM

I've got a position that I can decide to hold even more than a decade but it is that I don't know what tomorrow may bring to me and this is outside bitcoin and the market. I may not be a bitcoin maxi because I hold some alts but it has the biggest portion of my holdings and my heart. <3

Hopefully, you are not too distracted by shitcoins. I tend to recommend either no shitcoins or if you cannot resist, then to limit them to no more than 10% of your bitcoin holdings. I imagine that even if BTC is your BIGGEST portion, it still is not close to 90%, and maybe it is not even more than 50% hahahahaha.. which means you probably don't understand what is bitcoin as compared with the various shitcoins that you have chosen to waste your time, energy and money.

Quote from: livingfree on February 29, 2024, 01:13:39 PM

Quote from: GreatArkansas on February 28, 2024, 11:01:16 PM

You still can't guarantee it because we already experienced it, before no one is expecting that the current Bitcoin price we have right now is what we will experience.
Bitcoin is unexpected so we must be always prepared.
We need to consider a lot of things now especially since we already have a lot of volume, a lot of people already know Bitcoin, etc.

Yeah, just plan your actions on how you'd increase your position or time of selling.

Surely, people have to figure out why they are in bitcoin, and whether they merely want to get short term dollar profits, or perhaps some guys might be trying to hold bitcoin for longer time frames in order to have more options 4-10 years or longer down the road. So anyone still accumulating bitcoin can be placed in a dilemma regarding their continuation to accumulate, even when the BTC prices are going up a lot.. And in that regard, you don't increase your bitcoin position by selling. You ONLY can increase your position by buying, and if you are in the accumulation stage of your bitcoin journey, then you should not sell bitcoin if your goal is to accumulate more of it..

On the other hand, once you get to a point of adequate accumulation and/or over accumulation, then you have more options to sell some of it while it is going up, and if it does not go up then you don't sell it.. so then if you are overaccumulated, and then you want to start cashing out, then you should be able to cash out at any time and surely, it feels better to be cashing out when the price is going out rather than if it is just flat.... but at the same time, there could be concerns about selling too many BTC too soon, especially since previous ATHs tend to be pass through zones rather than being places in which any of us would be or should be expecting corrections... even though in the short term, anything can happen.