Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 10:59:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 10:31:04 PM

Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 08:50:23 PM

it's never late in Bitcoin especially when a just a few halvings happened..

Well if you have an investment time horizon that is 4-10 years or longer, it would be difficult to assess that you are starting too late or that you are foolish for getting started.

In the last more than 10 years that I have been involved in bitcoin (and paying some attention), I know a lot of folks over the years who waited and did not do anything in regards to buying bitcoin and we have had a lot of all time highs over the last 10 years... and sometimes it takes a while to reach another ATH after an ATH has been reached, but other times when we have not touched the all time high for a couple of years or more, then it is likely that we will continue to have more ATHs for months to come.. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but surely anyone buying bitcoin needs to be considering his investment timeline as an important factor, and then whether he is going to lump sum buy, DCA and/or buy on dips, and it can take several years to establish a position, no matter what the BTC accumulation approach.

Yup, I do agree that it doesn't matter which accumulation approach you are considering suitable the timeline matters, but for a person who is entering the market is starting to explore and finds it already at the peak time when he came to knew about it, rather than considering that time is gone I should look for something else, he needs to realize that on one peak to other, there are many zones/opportunities to accumulate and make a good average accumulation price, suppose that he takes the entry now and around 63k to 64k and after halving the per Bitcoin mining cost is gonna be around 46k to 47k and if market takes a healthy correction he follows the Buy the Dips or even DCA he stand a chance to buy at around 50k or 54k range or even lower just a rough idea. His current buying will even be worth it for his future accumulation.

Probably way too many newbies get preoccupied with their entry price, which causes them to wait, and you cannot prepare for UP by waiting, so even if the price might correct, it also might not, so there is no ability at all to count on prices going down or even staying flat... even if they might end up doing so, they also might not.

So the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy BTC.

Another thing is that if someone is brand new to investing, it could take them 10 years or longer to just build up a decent position that is actually meaningful.

Don't get me wrong, any investment is meaningful, but investments likely have little to no power in their first few years while they are building, and the ONLY folks who can establish meaningful investments into bitcoin in the beginning are those who are transferring decent amounts of value into it right from the start, but they no longer are going to be fitting the profile of any kind of typical normie newbie investor.

So, normie newbies likely could be nearly completely blind to price for at least 4 years and just invest at any price, and then perhaps reassess at that time, but if they are merely investing 10% or so of their salary into bitcoin, they are still not going to have very much invested, even after 4 years.. think about 10% per year would ONLY result in 40% of their salary, and sure the underlying could end up appreciating a lot during that time, but that still may not result in life-changing amounts of value.

I frequently mention a suggestion of front loading and even lump sum investing, and surely not everyone has those kinds of options available, but they likely would be good with bitcoin, and no one should be lump summing or front loading with 100% of their available cash. If they are able to front-load/lump sum, they still should be setting aside funds for buying on the dip and DCAing.. and presumably DCAing could come from any disposable income that they might have for 6 months or longer or however might be their intial planning stage for their entrance into bitcoin.

But yeah probably a vast majority of normie newbies don't hardly have shit available to lump sum or to front load, so they will just be faced with DCAing.. and maybe trying to organize their finances so that they can attempt to be as aggressive as they can with their DCA amounts. It still takes a while, even if someone is ready, willing and able to be aggressive, and tops like this should not discourage them from getting started...

Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 10:59:39 PM

On the same node JJG, we cant compare the current accumulation with the previous cycles as you know every time a surprising change occurs as it was $2.3T for the last ATH

You sound distracted if you are using dumb-ass ideas of $2.3 trillion... because no one should give any fucks about shitcoins.

The last time around bitcoin reached around a $1.2 trillion market cap..,. so let's try to focus on bitcoin when we are considering relevant numbers. Yeah there are shitcoins involved sucking off bitcoin's tit and hanging around as affinity scams and sure there could be some value in some of that crap, but it muddies our thinking and our numbers when we fail/refuse to focus on ourselves on the important asset - namely king daddy bitcoin.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 10:59:39 PM

, and now already before halving at this point of the first Bull wave, we are already hitting new ATH. In the optimistic range of a 4-10 years timeline from 2024 to 2030 or 2034 even if we can expect some changes in narratives related to Bitcoin, we can just speculate as nothing is guaranteed with the current speed even those who used to say 1sats =1$ is not so for this timeline of 4-10 years.

That is way too optimistic to be considering $1 per sat or 1sat per $1, and bitcoin is not even needed to come close to those numbers in order to be able to prosper stupendously by getting involved in it.. and yeah, people can ONLY be as aggressive as they are able to be without overdoing it, and maybe trying to be too strategic about trying to figure out the price is going to lead to either waiting around or getting distracted into trading and/or shitcoins.

In the last 6 months or so, I had revived my fuck you status chart in more conservative ways, and I probably ended up overdoing it, so I will probably have to revive it in order to be a little more bullish, but still even with the projections of my fuck you status chart beyond 2074, we are likely not reaching $1 per sat until around the turn of the century (at least in terms of the 200-WMA, which I believe is the better way to valuate bitcoin in terms of bottoms rather than in terms of tops). I had been considering if I should post an update to that chart prior to the end of May 2024, since it appears that we are on track for at least a 25% rise in the 200-WMA for the 6 month period (which is likely more than $36k) rather than the 16% that I had projected.

But even if we look at the 200-WMA and we project out 4-10 years, then 4 years puts the 200-WMA at around $114k and 10 years puts it at $389.5k. That is from my updated chart rather the the above-linked current one that is posted.

So part of the point is that any newbies should be able to invest into bitcoin regularly and consistently and still likely be doing fine, even though there are likely advantages to front-laoding the investment, but not many newbie normies are able to do that, so they have to just do what they can without overdoing it and losing their shirts because they devolved into gambling/trading rather than investing.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 10:59:39 PM

Becasue now the market will grow exponentially by both capital and adoption, still, retail investment from all over the world is not getting the spotlight on Bitcoin.

You are correct.. We are likely in the early stages of exponential, and even though BTC's market growth (and price) already looks exponential when we look at the historical charts, there is no reason to conclude that such exponential growth is not going to continue, especially since the evidence (logic and facts) still seems to strongly support that bitcoin is the soundest and most pristine asset known to man... but still not too many people realize such.. .even though more and more people, institutions and governments are coming to realize such.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 10:59:39 PM

TBH, at this point in the current bull run I think, I did many stupid things with my accumulation the first one was taking an early exit without realizing the potential risk of no re-entry chance,

Well, that's too bad.

You likely are not realizing the power of this bad boy, and you have to have persistence and even through all of my 10 years investing in bitcoin, whenever I sell BTC, I am always presuming that I might not be able to buy it back.. so in that regard, from my point of view, sales are always relatively conservative, and without any expectation of being able to buy back.

One of the problems of newbies and even experienced bitcoiners (traders and gamblers) is that there is too much presumption of abilities to buy back at cheaper prices and also they are trying to use sales of BTC as a way to accumulate more BTC, and that's not how it is done. The ONLY time any true bitcoiner should be selling his/her bitcoin is when s/he knows that s/he has enough or that s/he has more than enough. Otherwise, no selling of BTC should take place, until reaching that status of sufficient accumulation or better yet over accumulation... easier said than done, but it takes discipline and a long time to build up a bitcoin portfolio and none of us should be taking for granted how many sats that we have accumulated or that we can buy them back at the same price or even cheaper than the current price.

Quote from: Hamza2424 on March 05, 2024, 10:59:39 PM

I did follow some strict plans but you know in greed and fear sometimes happens I did a booking of 50% at early 35k where I was supposed to book only 25% because it was my first target. What's gone is gone, Now even though I dont consider many portfolios and accumulation enough when I look at resources as a student I did own I think its not bad as well, even though I was able to do better.

Hopefully you will learn a lesson to just keep buying and stop fucking around with trading and trying to be smarter than the market.

Another thing is that our move from $25k (August/September/October) to current prices of $65k-ish has been pretty damned brutal for either the bitcoin non-believers and/or those who sold too many coin too soon. There have only been a couple of corrections greater than 12%, and even the corrections of 8% to 12% were not very many.

And maybe we can say a similar thing from the low of $15,479 in November 2022. There have not been a lot of large correction since November 2022, either... so lots of good buying opportunities that were not really realized until later.. and once we start hitting all time highs again like yesterday and probably like the weeks and months to come, even sometimes we might start to consider bitcoin's whole history as having had been great buying opportunities, and many times we get too fucking caught up on short-term price moves or anticipations of what might happen, without realizing that bitcoin's whole history has been buying opportunities, and it is only going to continue to get more and more difficult to get cheap coins, even though bitcoin is also volatile and going to continue to be volatile..

Quote from: Yaunfitda on Today at 04:03:13 AM

Yeah for sure we might see new all time high before the halving.

We already did see an ATH.. yesterday, and yeah it is looking more and more likely that we are going to see $100k before the halvening and maybe even land somewhere in the range of $120k and $180k prior to the end of 2024.

Quote from: Yaunfitda on Today at 04:03:13 AM

But the real bull run is after that when we see prices going on a parabolic rise. And if we can compare, those who bought at near all time high on the previous cycle could bear a sigh of relieve now, specially those who FOMO at around $60k in 2021 and still holding but this time because they wanted to make a profit at least. Or they could have sold already but then bought when the price is <$40k or even lower. So still a win-win situation and you can't call them fools.

I can't disagree with you on these points.