Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 02:56:07 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 11:17:16 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...

As a comparison point, we are likely closer to December 2020 than we are to October 2021... although we are still at pre-halvening.. even though likely the impact of the halvening is dwarfed as compared to the volume of BTC that the various new spot ETFs are sucking up.

Had you noticed that spot BTC ETFs had been approved and they have been sucking up BTC like a mo fo?

Yes, noted re: ETFs. Price go up and BTC into ETFs go up. No shit sherlock. What happens if price goes down though? Nobody knows, because it's never happened with ETFs being available, apart from the initial correction from $48K and ETF outflows became negative, but (I agree) that this is not conclusive of what will occur in the future.

From my perspective, you still seem to be grasping at a long-shot theory, while trying to make it sound like it has some kind of realistic chance of playing out.. when maybe at best it has 20% odds of happening.

And, yeah, I don't claim to be an expert in assigning odds, even though the ETFs seem to be way more sticky in terms of the kind of capital that they are likely getting flowing in..

These are likely not the "in and out" kind of guys that you are painting them to be, and at the same time, the BTC spot ETFs are successful beyond the wildest of expectations and they are generating their own demand/hype to some extent that seems to justify something like a 2x to 3x BTC price appreciation based on flows that are going in the buying direction and NOT likely easy to change, until maybe after the 2x to 3x BTC UPpity plays out... so you are striving and stretching to argue the contrary point of view that does not line up with actual on the ground facts.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

We are otherwise closer to March 2020 based on Bitcoin's cycles, which I still believe in.

Sure. I believe in cycles too, and yeah, in terms of the timeline we are closer to March 2020, but part of the problem is that in March 2020, we had not yet reached an ATH.. so we did not get into noman's land or even close, we were still struggling getting past the early July 2019 high of $13,880.. .. so right before the March 2020 crashening (kind of like a quasi-black swan event) we were ONLY dancing with $10k at best which was ONLY half the 2017 ATH.. and in this case we have already breached the 2021 ATH, momentum remains in that direction because buy support is more than keeping up. .... this thing is not overly frothy.. which would be the case if buying support is not able to keep up with the price, which surely is not the current case (ie facts on the ground).

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Obviously based on price, we are closer to Octotober 2021.

No way Jose. It is not obvious. In 2021, we had two peaks, so right now the BTC price is not even close to peaking, so it is more like December 2020 when it was passing the 2017 ATH for the first time. .. or like December/January 2017 when it was passing the 2013 ATH for the first time. Sure there can be snafus and hanging up points, but we have unusual circumstances this time with more than 10x the demand - even accounting for (or adjusting for) increased prices. The amount of money coming in way out strips the supply of BTC available on the market, including that a lot of HODLers had pulled their coins from exchanges and even normal BTC supply channels are drying up.

Yeah, some of the cold storage supply is going to come back online, but a lot of it is likely not coming back for sale until prices are over $100k, so there is not enough supply to go around to meet the way increasing demand, and even the demand is not even close to exhausted, they are barely coming online, and they are even having more demand than any of the ETF providers had expected.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

To not acknoledge the subjectivity of these comparisons would be naive (I know I'm certainly not and remaining open minded).

It would seem to be better to be open minded, but hey you do you.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much,

Oh my....

Poor widdo tingilie .. hasn't bought back yet. Gonna have to pour one out for you soon.

Give it time at least, I wouldn't be bathing in confidence about anything quite yet. There is still a lot to prove here.

I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.

But I am not going to fight the facts, which seems to be that we are in the middle of nomans land and heading uppity.. and the best you likely could hope for is that there might be some additional resistance somewhere between $84k and $94k prior to us getting too close to $100k since we should already know that $100k is not going to hold, once we get within a 4-5% of it... Yeah, it is likely to be passed through a few times, but we are at a point of the cycle that you cannot be putting much credit into downity.. the trend is your friend and it happens to be UPpity. and that is how bull markets work.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

especially the more parabolic the price has gone.

Hardly could be parabolic when there is hardly any supply left on exchanges..

But hey, you can look at whatever data you prefer.

It's not what I prefer, parabolic price movement is - unsurprisingly - based on price movement, it has nothing to do with supply.
I'm surprised you aren't aware of that obvious fact, but never mind.,

I see the price going up. and I don't consider it to be going up too fast, especially given context.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K,

Gosh what a great compromiser you are. Thanks for that. You are probably going to be lucky to get anything in the $40s.. and maybe this wee widdo dippening to $59,772 might have been all yee gonna be able to get..

It sounds like the same nonsense as in 2019, that you'd be lucky to get anything under $10K, when soon after price reached around $6K, back to support - as expected after a parabolic move.

It's possible that for now $60K could be the low before hitting $80K. If that happens, I'd happily raise my low / support level to $40K, because based on time, fib retracements and moving averages, that would be the low support, whether it reaches there or not. It's only really if price reaches $100K and goes beyond, then returning to below $50K becomes a bit less likely, especially if it happens this year.

There is something off about your framing... too bad you couldn't have just stayed a bit more of a bulltard, then you would not be in your current situation, wishing for downity that is not very likely to happen.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.

Yeah but it is probably not going to happen..

Sounds convincing. It sounds like every other YouTube saying "it's probably not going to happen", before it does.

I am not much of a price predictor anyhow. All I tend to do is prepare for either direction, and I let the price come to me.

Sure, I might adjust my orders a bit, but not very much, so for example in noman's land, I still sell but I increase my increments and decrease the size of the sales.. so I make little adjustments based on some of my ideas of price, but I stick iwth the overall system of buying on the way down and selling on the way up. I have been doing that since mid-to-late 2015, and sure I made a few mistakes, but they system largely stayed in place the whole time without too much prediction involved....

Oh for example, I had to remove some of my orders in 2022 and spread them out more and even bring in some outside money because the price went way lower than expected. .I probably had around a 10% cushion to go below the 200-WMA, and the price, as we know, ended up going around 35% below the 200-WMA, so I had to make adjustments, so that I would not run out of money, but that did not involve selling BTC, just changing the way that my buy orders were structured.. and then yeah, buy on the way down and sell on the way up, so there was selling on the way up, and so there may have been tweaks here and there to attempt to account for where we were, how we got there and even thoughts of where we might go.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Yeah, we have a bit of a correction today, but we are most likely going to through no man's land, and yeah, maybe we won't make it all the way through without a correction, but I am thinking that you have better chances for a correction once we start getting close to $90k-ish, give or take $4k.

You could be right here, it could take until $80K, $90K, even $100K, but in 2024, I don't believe there won't be a correction that won't be on average around 50%. I still believe in the routine.

I am not going to deny large corrections to be both possible, but to have decently high odds of happening. It is also quite possible that BTC prices will settle in the range of $120k to $180k in 2024. and then perhaps (or likely) go higher in 2025, so just between now and $180k, I surely expect some decently-sized corrections, including at least a couple 30% or more that might even get in the 50% plus levels.... but they are still not seeming too likely prior to our at least getting through noman's land, and generally (and historically) speaking once getting all the way through noman's land, it does not tend to be likely to correct all the way back through it.. so call me a sceptic on any theories expecting those levels of corrections, even though they could happen.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs.

ETF volume is hardly newbie FOMO.. The ETFs are barely getting started and many of them are not even open to RIAs yet (that's registered investment advisors).

They are barely getting started, but it's not newbie FOMO? Right, ok... not even going to bother with this illogical argument.

Good. That way I don't have to write anything more, either.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no ~~idea~~ experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional.

ETFs are still generally sticky.

Sure they can trade them, but they are more likely parking their money into those products for several years, and they may even get automatically reallocated from time to time, so they are not completely static, but they are most likely as much the "in and out" vehicles that you are making them out to be.

You stumbled across the key point here, possibly without realising it: "automatic allocation". That works for the upside and well was the de-alloclation to the downside. It's more or less automated based on what's trading to the upside and what's trading to the downside, much less based on emotions or fundamentals in reality. Ideally investments are held for years, sure, but this isn't always the case.

Again. No further comment needed by this here cat.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K,

We already did. Don't you remember the correction from $49k to $38.5k? That is the best you are going to get.

Sorry for your loss.

Oh dear, it's concerning to here a long-time Bitcoiner believing that <$50K is now impossible,

I did not say it is impossible. I am still considering the 200-WMA as the bottom and that is currently at around $31,700. But that does not mean that I am going to go argue that we need to revisit those lower prices or to suggest down before up, especially when we are still well in the middle of noman's land, which has an additional UPPity momentum built into the concept.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

when I believe that $100K this year is more than possible. I was hoping there would be more or a balance between "UPonly" and "correction possibly", rather than uber-bullish mentality. I still remember when we used to consider every possible outcome, not be blinded by parabolic moves in the market.

We still consider every possibility, and we assign very low odds to your scenario, such as less than 20%.

You seem to be wanting to assign much higher odds to your scenario, such as, perhaps, higher than 50% odds. You were even suggesting that guys shave off some of their cornz so they can prepare for your scenario. How is that playing out right now?

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Again, this type of mentality reminds me of 2019 parabolic move, that <$10K was now impossible, cos "Bitcoin is bullish", and remains highly speculative as an outlook to maintain.

You are creating some kind of imaginary argument.

yeah I remember 2019. We went right around 3.5x from April to June from $4,200 to $1,3880.. and yeah that was amazing as fuck.. and so sure guys might have started to consider that $10k might end up holding, and it did not.. and so we got back down to $6k-ish and Tone Vays and some of those guys were proclaiming that the 2013 ATH of $1,163 had to be retested before we would be ready to go up. and there were others in that same camp, never happy with the extent of our correction being enough... and so yeah, $6k probably would have been the bottom for that period.. except we ended up getting the March 2020 events.. so yeah flukes happen, and they probably are somewhat expected to continue to happen.. so I will give you that part.. the part that flukes can sometimes happen and they can happen again, but it still seems a bit short-sighted to be preparing for a fluke.. that seems more like gambling. which seems to be what you are doing and you have been doing for a couple of months when you announced your strategy and continuously seeming to want to talk your book into existence..

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.

There are always newbies bailing ship, but they are not enough to make a difference.

Right, unless all the newbies bought Bitcoin ETFs in the past two months, or does that not count as newbie investors?

Sure they count. But I doubt that they are as flimsy and fickle as you are making them out to be.. yet you can believe what you want. with your current "down before up theory."

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

We all know who's been buying BTC these past two months, and we can talk about the positives of ETF inflows until the cows come home. But what about the negatives? The newbie short-term holders? Are they exempt from scrutiny because they are mainly institutions? No.

Yes. negatives can happen. and even panic. But you are not going to get me to change where I think that we are at, and I am not much of a down person anyhow, even if I have some decent senses that it is going down. The best you would get me to do is to pull some of my buy orders so I could buy lower, but I usually don't even do that, even when I think that I am buying into a falling knife, because I learned fairly early on that it tends to be better to just leave my buy orders and my sell orders in spite of my views... and frequently the price changes at kind of weird places anyhow, so it is not like I would have been able to predict it and to buy back much better than where my orders had already been placed.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)

Sure, there might be some loss of miners.. but even that is not a given. You seem to be assuming quite a bit, but hey? who knows? maybe you will be correct and you will be able to buy back your coins in the $30ks as you suggest, or maybe you will get smarter and buy back before then when you realize that it ain't not gonna happen.

Firstly, you're assuming I'm waiting for $30K or $35K, even $40K. WRONG! I'm waiting for price stability, not really bothered where that price comes from,

Ok. sorry about assuming more than I should have had about your position or your exact price point. which I already understand that there is both discretion and there could be rapidly changing circumstances that can change the approach of any trader/gambler.

I get the sense that we have already been quite stable through this whole rise from $25k to $69.2k, and only recently did we get a bit more instability, but if the BTC price is bouncing around a bit, that still does not mean it is not going to continue to ultimately move up and to pass through no man's land along with the presumption that it is passing through noman's land.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

but if you think that after 14 months of UPONLY that there will be no correction or sideways price action, for a considerable amount of time (like months), then you've gone insane. In 10+ years of Bitcoin, this has ALWAYS been the case. ETFs are not an excuse here.

I never said up only. I am just seeming to assign different odds than uie-pooie and you are thereafter trying to proclaim that I am an UP ONLY kind of guy.. which is pure bullshit. I always prepare for either direction, even if I might talk BIGger about one direction rather than the other, and frequently I prefer to talk about up rather than down, even if I might sense down, I don't usually tend to cheer for it, even if I might sometimes fear it or even expect it... I don't tend to talk about downity in these here parts, especially as a kind of downity promoter.. it is a rare thing for me.. even though I will sometimes acknowledge various actions that I am taking to prepare for downity, just in case.. which sometimes members will even consider those kinds of discussions to be overly bearish.. .but I still will make such assertions from time to time.

But why do it now? Especially when we are both in UPPity and we are in an even more special area of UPpity.. and furthermore we are in a kind of bear punishment mode.. which has been really great to be experiencing it again.. in that sense we are in a situation similar to early 2019.. but we are in a later state of the cycle.. or like late 2020 crossing into new ATHs and the price still going up and refusing to correct (until it does)... and yeah there is always the beartard trying to ruin the moo.

keep calling for down over and over and over...

I remember Tera (or was it Tera2) in the 2017 bull market.. kept calling for down all the way from $2k all the way up until $20k, and then finally when s/he was correct, many members were calling her/him a genius. Yeah, we get those beartards continuously saying that down is imminent, and sure sooner or later they will end up being correct.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Even in the "bull market years" of Bitcoin there is price stability that eventually arrives, usually because these UPONLY periods don't last longer than 12 months. This is uncharted territory for sure, but it won't exempt Bitcoin from going through the usually period of correction/sideways price action I don't believe, if anything, the longer it goes on for, the worse it will be.

Sure. What you say is true, but it still does not mean that UP is not going to continue until morale of the bears improves.

Some of you traders put way the fuck too much emphasis in various squigglies and you also need to stop the fuck treating Bitcoin as if it were some kind of a mature asset and fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately account for exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought).. .. so king daddy is going to continue to punish you guys when you think you can hold it down and part of the world's transfer of wealth has to do with some of these stepping up periods of UPPpty that fail refuse to correct back down, and if you are not sufficiently/adequately in during the step up period, you end up not being part of the receiver side of that particular stage of the transfer of wealth from the nocoiners to the coiners.

The punchline remains that you need to be the fuck in during these transfer of wealth periods (or step up periods or whatever they are called when the price goes up and it does not correct back down and give you another chance to get back in and blah blah blah). It has happened many times in bitcoin's history, and it is likely going to continue to happen, until morale improves.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

If it did become exempt from usual Bitcoin/market movements, then there will be worse things to come, as that would be official bubble territory that Bitcoin has never experienced before, and all hell could break lose. Fortunately, we're not there yet.

We are far from there, because if you had not noticed, BTC's price was artificially repressed during 2022 and even into until October 2023, which helps to contribute to these kinds of explosive periods to make up for the prior suppression that had been happening earlier. Yeah they can be called natural part of the happenings. but at the same time, it still results in a bit of explosiveness in both directions to make up for the other direction, so perhaps dee cornz has to get back to where it should have had been which currently seems to be gravitating towards the $120k to $180k price arena within the next 3-12 months...and then at some point reassess where we are at from within that.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from,

This time is different.

I'll add this to my diary of times where I was told that this time it's different, and check back in the future to see if it was actually different, as so far this hasn't been the case. But let's see!

Great. I am glad that you are taking note. In the mean time, protip you might try to figure out a way to buy back those coins you sold at $48k, even if it might be at a loss.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016).

Sure. Flash crashes no problem. May or may not happen again, as you suggest, so sad for uie pooie... if you are preparing for down without sufficiently/adequately preparing for up.

Again, you're making unfounded assumptions. I was balancing my portfolio to be prepared for a correction, while also (predominantly) being prepared for continued upside (as has happened). But I forgive you, as despite not bothering to question these things, it's easy to make wrong assumptions about ones Bitcoin allocation. So no sadness here, as I said I'm not bothered about the degen 50%+ on top of that.

You are sure spending a lot of time arguing for down, even though claiming to be prepared for either direction.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved.

Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.

I had, I'm just being sensible and not basing 2 months of ETF trading with 15+ years of Bitcoin price history, that'd be ridiculous and insulting to Bitcoin itself. You're insulting Bitcoin here.

I am not trying to throw out history, either. There surely are patterns and there are also periods in which dee cornz goes beyond the patterns while still staying within the patterns, but we might not be able to see that it is still within the pattern until we let time pass and we look back upon what had just happened that seemed to be unexpected, but still it was not as crazy as it seemed to be while we were going through it.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Is it not fair and realistic to compare ETF inflows/outflows with price decline, not just UPONLY parabolic moves? That seems realistic to me, in order to see the balance of these things, that we've yet to see most importantly.

To the extent that I am preparing for either price direction, I doubt that I am failing to account for any of the possibilities, even though there are various unknowns that are always in the mix...and I just buy if the price goes down and sell if it goes up.. and make little adjustments here and there.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Of course ETF inflows will increase when price increases, it's correlated for good reason. We don't really know what happens in the inverse stage, and eventually we will find out.

That comes later. They likely need to get in before they are able to get out.. and we are seeing ongoing and continuous flow in rather than out, inspite various preseeding attempts and even sources of liquidity that seem to be drying up and continuously, ongoingly and persistently getting sucked into the ETFs.. much beyond expectations I might add. Even if some of their inflow starts to dry up, it is still bullish.

Seems like doom and gloom if you believe these newbies are so dumb as to start selling... but yeah, hey anything can happen, and I am glad that at least one of us (you) is putting a decent amount of effort to prepare yourself, so you will be able to tell us "I told you so" when you end up being the ONLY one who saw it.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell. For example if we hold $50K until the halving, the effects would likely be immediate bullish based on current demand.

$100k before the halvening is looking more likely, and then the $120k to $180k range is likely to be a part of our 2024 BTC experiences. Sorry to break the news.

Oh thanks, I hadn't heard that before. I mean obviously every uber-bull and YouTuber has been spouting >$100K in the next few hours or weeks,

I am glad that you are so original. much more original than the various uber bulls, like yours truly. and I am glad that you consider yourself to be smarter and such an original thinker.. as if some folks with opinions and assessments similar to mine are all parroting one another while you have the true insight and the nuanced perspective that happens to be able to see matters with more clarity.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

similar to late 2021, and it's all over mainstream media, but thanks for breaking the news to me again, I should really have faith in the mainstream media and influencer's positive opinion of Bitcoin. In fact, I should acknowledge more when they are bearish too! [/sarcasm]

My 2021 predictions (or assignment of odds for various price ranges and even a timeline) is still outstanding in Opening post 4 of my investment ideas thread. I haven't updated them, yet. I will likely need to update those probability assignments for this cycle (and to raise the numbers a bit, especially since the 200-WMA has gone up quite a bit since then, too), but it seems a bit early for for my plugging in the new numbers, yet. I might need to unwittingly wait until the top of the cycle, like I did last time. hahahahahha

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively.

It is doubtful we will get back to $48k.. even though sure it is possible, but lower $50ks is probably best you can hope for..... absent some kind of short-term downward spike, but I have my doubts about that, too.

Thank fuck, I was getting worried then. So $48K is possible after all? In that case, maybe we do go to $100K after all, if everyone hasn't become an UPONLY uber-bull.

You shouldn't generalize too much. It is not polite.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points.

I doubt those early ETF guys are as weak-handed as you are making them out to be, even though they may well be reapportioning their BTC from time to time..

Pure speculation, as has been the theme these past two months. Why don't we wait and find out? Because your theory is completely untested.

Your theory is "more tested" than mine? give me a break.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

The only comparison is how strong newbie hands are, and from 10+ years of history, they are weak as fuck. The weakest of them all in fact. Ideally this time it would be different, but all that "automated allocation" malarkey will probably play out in an automated way...

Yes. Automation can sometimes dampen volatiliy, but it can also cause volatility to cascade. So I don't disagree with those kinds of assessments.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness. So if you want to put faith in these newbies (that can be translated into price >$50K, then feel free, but I won't be participating in this facade).

Seems like a long-shot theory you are espousing... but hey it is a free ~~country~~ ~~world~~ thread.. do/feel as you like.

Long-short theory that newbies aren't weak hands? OK! Let's agree to disagree

Ok. Sounds good to me.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero consequences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.

Sounds like a long shot theory and you are talking your book.. .

sucks to be uie pooie.. sold at $48k or was it $46k?

It was $48K without regrets. As I said, I'll let the degens trade the rest... they are the only ones trading >$50K right now. Hodlers aside (that obviously aren't trading hodl stash, like myself).

I even could of re-bought at $40K, but wasn't interested in such a speculative trade. Crazy I know, I don't care for degen pump chasing anymore! I've changed.

It depends on how much you sold. Since you are claiming to not have sold very much then you might be o.k. ... but many times guys like you who sell too much too soon (without admitting it) rationalize themselves into becoming more and more disgruntled. So hopefully your situation is not going in that direction.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either,

Ok.. $48k then. You might as well buy back....

Oh you wouldn't want to do that.

You would rather stick with your principles.

I'd rather buy stability right now than a correction, that could go deeper than $48K. So again WRONG!

I am getting the sense that you must not know dee cornz too well.. the cornz is likely to become less stable rather than more stable in the coming 6-18 months give or take 3 months.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever).

It is good that you did not blow your whole wadd on this.

But you still sound a wee bit desperate (rather than objective) in regards to the whole matter.

I'm lacking objectivity?

I am getting that impression.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Did you even read your own words?

No. I just wrote my words in a kind of stream of consciousness kind of way. Wink

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Unlikely to ever go below $50K again, more like to reach $100K within two months?

How am I supposed to know? I mostly buy bitcoin to prepare for UP, and if down happens, then I buy more cornz in order to prepare more for up.

I got into bitcoin in order to be biased towards up. I don't fuck around with trying to guess short term price moves, and I even attempt to set myself up in a way that I am protected no matter what, but part of the problem with bitcoin it has way the fuck outperformed my expectations.. and so be it.. icing on the cake. I put in money that was extra and was going to be only 10% or so of my investment portfolio, and now it has caused my whole other 90% to appear as dwarfs.. mostly due to BTC price appreciation that went way beyond expectations.. a wind fall that has been lovely.. I am not going to complain.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Objective much? Whereas I'm willing to acknowledge that $80K-$100K is possibly this year, even if I find it unlikely, I'm not ruling that out, and am prepared for such scenarios. Predominantly because I think it would all end in tears if happened before 2025.

I guess I might be lazy then. Why do I have buy orders going down to $20k?

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

I was never going to sell the majority of my stash, that would be insane right now.

Selling anything beyond 5% at a time seems like a lot to me.. but hey, I sell about 5% every time the price doubles.. so I suppose I could be similar to you.. even though my BTC stash still seems to be mostly going up and doesn't really shrink very much.. .even though several mistakes have been made along the way, too.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

I was simply selling some scepticism, not even weakness.

Seems a bit misplaced to suffer from so much skepticism from the perspective of this here cat. Especially after going through so much gruelling between May 2022 until about October 2023..

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

By holding on from >$50K I'd be putting my faith in the institutions that bought up the price, which I'm simply not willing to do.

Fuck the institutions... but if you had not noticed bitcoin is open source, and we cannot stop who comes in or leaves, and if you think that they are going to be able to unduly influence dee cornz, you might not even understand dee cornz well enough.

Not that I am claiming to know what is going to happen, but I doubt that the fat cat institutions coming into bitcoin is really hurting bitcoin and there is nothing we can do about it anyway, except get out, like you suggested.. but I doubt that you are even treating it correctly.. you are acting as if they can naked short bitcoin, and that was what they were likely doing with the futures, but the BTC spot ETFS are another beast, when they are required to back up their shares with the underlying.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

It's a personal choice, not much else here. I'm not expecting you to understand either, don't worry.

No problem. Do what you gotta do (or what you want to do).

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type,

Stop trying to suck us into your stupidity. Yeah you would have had been smart if you would have bought back around $38.5k, but you were too stubborn, and you think that what you are saying is so obvious that guys here should be selling.. .. that is quite lame.

Fuck that, I'm glad I didn't buy $40K! Oh my god what the fuck are you talking about? My days of degenerate trading are much behind me (at least with Bitcoin). Still happy to trade shictoins for SATS, but I don't chase pumps anymore, it's a recipe for disaster. I wasn't selling $48K for a trade, that probably the first point you missed out of everything.

I stand corrected then. Perhaps?

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 07:46:58 PM

I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.[/i]

I doubt that guys waiting for up and buying on the way down (or on dips or even DCA buying) are even close to as degenerate as someone waiting/hoping for down when we just crossed over into ATHs for the first time in 2 years and 4 months.. 30 months.

Just look at the ETF inflows, they weren't buying on the way down and waiting for up, they were waiting for up and buying on the way up, and still are. What you're talking about is traditional Bitcoin investors / retail investors, because buying the dip has historically always been profitable. Institutions quite simply don't have the same blind faith as us Bitcoiners, hence they wait for strength rather than buying weakness.

They are doing all kinds of shit right now. And the ETFs are not just institutions, they are individual clients that are buying those products and some of the clients might be institutions but they might also be individuals and/or governments. Some got in early, others are just coming in and others will come in later. The whole ETF inflows are just ramping up with so many variety of buyers, including new product offerings that are just rolling out and new RIAs that are just getting authorized to offer the various Bitcoin spot ETF products. Some already know about BTC and others are just learning and others don't have a clue.. and yeah surely most of them are not very smart about bitcoin, but others are smart and/or able to learn fast.. there is variety in the underlying clients of the ETF products.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

This is just a simple reality of institutions buying into Bitcoin,

Again it is not just institutions. Some of the institutions are just realizing that they can get Bitcoin through an ETF and some of them will come later.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

and quite frankly, we'll see how it plays out in the immediate term and well as long-term. Long-term I don't doubt it will be beneficial, but short-term, I remain far from convinced (mainly as there is nothing to prove otherwise so far, this is a short-term concept right now). Putting all your faith into the short-term goes against the fundamentals of Bitcoin imo. I refuse to be blinded by these so-called game-changing institutional on-ramps, I'll instead put my faith into Bitcoin, it's cycles, it's fundamentals, and every other technical aspect of it's existence. Not fucking ETFS.

Well you may well be ignoring reality.. because both is going on and happening at the same time.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 05, 2024, 09:17:48 PM

There are ways to play these matters in order to be prepared for either direction, and not ONLY are you seeming to be overly prepared for down, you are likely to have the odds quite greatly against you... so that's too bad we have not heard from you for the past month or so, when you probably should have been buying back in, while we were still in the $40ks even if we did not hit your lower $30k BTC price expectations.

How patronising, how could I be prepared for mainly down when I still hold the majority of my Bitcoin? Makes no sense. That's literally the idea of being prepared for upside (more so than downside) Roll Eyes

I am glad that you corrected me then.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

Because ultimately, regardless of this year, I still believe Bitcoin will increase dramatically in 2025 (let's say by 2026), so I'm not rushing to offload my stash here. Just remaining overly cautious.

We have to see how this year and at least part of 2025 play out before figuring out 2026, and you already know the pattern that 2026 would be expected to be a down year... but yeah, we cannot really know this far in advance.. but we can still tentatively keep the cycle frame as you already suggested.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

And again, don't assume you know what I should have been doing or wish I had done. I'm glad I didn't buy at $40K.

You were telling guys to sell in order to prepare for down like you did.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM

I was drawn into this market threw degenerate gambling in August 2021 (degen season), which while was successful and paid off (who wasn't successful?), I realised it wasn't why I wanted to be invested in Bitcoin (it's not just about the cRaZy GaInZ). I'd prefer to exercise more caution these days, focus more on portfolio balancing and risk aversion, rather than chasing every pump and percentage that comes the markets way. Based on everything I'd said, I believe I have reason to be cautious right now, rather than being blinded by the ETF hype and inflows that are a short-term districations (as explained), and instead focus on Bitcoin and how it's always been.

Well if you are a long term investor rather than a trader, then congratulations and welcome to the club... yet I still have my doubts, especially since you spent a quite a bit of effort prognosticating doom and gloom which causes me to think that you are not very long and you may have sold too much too soon with anticipation of getting further long, and you may well have over did it.

But hey so what.. I might be placing too much expectations on you, but I was attempting to use your own statements and representations to the extent that you made any.

By the way it is hard to go along with your proclamation that you are no longer a degenerate trader when you are espousing trading ideas and trying to predict price movements. I already said that I believe that my own strategy does not do any of that, and so my sales on the way up and my buying on the way down are largely intended just to provide insurance and there seems to be some empowerment with the ongoing employment of such a system that largely attempts to not get attached to short-term price moves.... even though it is not completely detached since it does involve buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but I don't really consider that to be trading.. merely a form of price/volatility insurance...especially since both of us likely realize that one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is its volatility.. both historically and also in the present and in the years to come.. at least 20 years or more of outrageous price volatility expected as being more or less inevitable.

I am trying for the longest post ever on the wo. By quoting you JJG and adding some text this will be the longest post ever made on the wo.

BTW my 2021 70k in may guaranteed post still holds as the ceiling for btc.
If honey badger really does not care it does need to top this three year. jinx I created .

Maybe the bagder teams up with buddy and finally tops 70k.

I don’t consider it trolling I consider it as an improvement to JJG’s epic post.

Give Jay time and an interesting topic, he is surely going to beat this record, never seen any dedicated poster like him.