Quote from: ginsan on March 07, 2024, 09:27:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2024, 06:06:01 PM

You seem to be describing someone who had overinvested into bitcoin, and another problem is that the kind of person that you describe sounds like a gambler, because the smart thing to do if you have concluded that that you might have over invested would be to take some value off the table, and then to resume with a more prudent approach in which you can stay more focused on your goal of continuing to accumulate in a way that does not cause you to get overly excited (or emotional) about your investment. Sure, it is difficult to set our positions so that we don't get emotional because sometimes it takes a while to build up your position in bitcoin enough in order that you can begin to feel less and less emotional about it. It takes practice to build your portfolio in a way to at least attempt to minimize the amount of emotion, even though we are likely not going to completely get rid of the emotion, especially if we might happen to be normal people rather than bots.

What you say is quite true, especially us beginners need encouragement to fight our emotions of lust when things are like this. I mean we don't have to take a stupid attitude when market conditions are bullish. Yes, we have to be able to resist the temptation of profit because we have done quite well building a portfolio from the past 1 year by buying and holding. But the most difficult period is fighting our desires and perhaps it will ruin an investment journey if we are consumed by the desire for short-term profits.

Bitcoin has a way stronger investment thesis now as compared to late 2013 when I entered into bitcoin, and I know that I was thinking about a 2 year investment, and at least a 1 year investment into bitcoin when I entered, but the fact of the matter is that as I was into bitcoin for a while, it started to become clear that there were 4 year cycles, and sure I could already look back at the BTC price charts in late 2013 and see what appeared to be the repetition of several Gartner hype cycles, but they could not really be identified in 4-year patterns because bitcoin was ONLY around 5 years old.. but really ONLY 4 years with a price, so it was not easy to really see any patterns in terms of 4 years, but I still recall folks claiming that there had already been several Gartner hype cycles with an expectation that they would repeat. which also seemed logical. without really tying in how the 4 year halvening fit into how the hype cycles would play out.. but surely the halvening was also already being discussed as being important too.. but anyhow, part of my point is that it was a bit more unclear about how to potentially play bitcoin as a longer term investment, and maybe that was part of the reason that I came into bitcoin with thoughts of trying to invest at least a couple of years or maybe longer, but at minimum trying to stay in bitcoin for at least a year, even though I really ONLY initially authorized myself an investment budget for the first 6 months...

I think the fact that I started investing into bitcoin towards the top and continued to invest for more than a year before coming to more commitment to the idea that I was pretty much in bitcoin for life.. but just having to adjust towards figuring out how to transition from BTC accumulation to BTC maintenance... which I kind of started to employ more of a maintenance practice starting in late 2015.. but it is was still a bit in its early stages of figuring it out, which is partially attributable to my having some decently BIG mistakes in late 2015, and yeah, I think that mistakes are going to be made along the way, which should help the learning process.

So guys coming into bitcoin now and even in recent years, should have some advantages in regards to both bitcoin having a longer history to look back upon, and also a certain amount of advantages from quite a bit of analysis being done, even though there still are needs to figure out which are the better sources of information, but that really has not changed, because there has always been good information and bad information that has been all mixed in, and so there has always been needs for critical thinking in bitcoin whether you came here earlier or if you just got here in the last couple of years.

I guess my point is that there likely needs to be some buckling down in regards to getting through a whole 4 year cycle, and maybe the main exceptions would be if some of the guys here might have been able to really front-load their investment, then they would be in a better position to have more options, and I just don't see how it would be smart to be fucking around with selling unless you really have accumulated a decently good size stash of bitcoin, and really I am not even much of a seller of bitcoin even if you have accumulated a lot, you still would end up selling within some disciplined framework in order to continue to largely stay invested in bitcoin, so I have some troubles understanding how these times can be stressful for the newbie, except merely for thoughts that he wished he would have had stacked more earlier, and some newbies cheering for down or hoping the price does not continue to go up so fast so that they are able to stack more... which they may or may not be able to do that in the coming 6-18 months.. I really am having my doubts that we are going to be hanging out in the 5 digits for much longer or even coming back to the 5 digits once we leave.. but sure who the hell knows... we could revisit 5 digits even after going into the 6 digits, but it is not guaranteed, so in that regard, it seems any newbie, or no coiner or perceived low coiner, you should ONLY be buying and you should not be tempted at all by selling or even letting up on your BTC accumulation, even if you might be wanting to try to figure out ways to buy on dips, if there are any, but you might not be in a position to really be holding back a lot of capital in order to wait for dips that might not come.

Quote from: ginsan on March 07, 2024, 09:27:25 PM

Of course every increase always gives rise to one reason for every decision where it comes doubt to buy because some of them are afraid of the decision they made. Maybe the important point here is not to check Bitcoin prices every day because that can trigger uncontrollable emotions.

It is hard to not watch the price unless you truly have already stacked as much as you plan to stack and then maybe at that point you are just playing the BIGGER swings rather than the smaller swings, and that probably is not a bad place to be, either.. yet each person has to figure out if he is at that point yet or not..

Maybe we need to speak in examples. For example, a guy who might consider his fuck you status to be at $2 million, but he has only stacked around 15 BTC. He is ONLY about 1/4 of the way to fuck you status in terms of measuring based on the 200 WMA. You can look that up here, yet at the same time, he likely has decent confidence that 15 BTC will be pretty close to fuck you status in late 2028 (use my fuck you status chart to see how to estimate that even though it is going to need to be updated to show the latest numbers that are less conservative than the current chart), so he could continue to stack BTC in order to bring up his stash a bit more or he could wait until late 2028, since he already largely has enough for that point. Those are discretionary choices in regards to whether to continue to stack BTC or if there might be other areas of your finances or other comforts of your life that you want to work upon. I am not suggesting that I know the answer, but it seems to me that until the numbers are reached (and I am not talking about spot price numbers), then the guy has discretion whether to keep buying or not.. and he has more discretion because he already has a quantity of BTC that may well have good chances of being fuck you status by the end up 2028.. using the 200-wma for valuation.

Of course, if the guy has 20 BTC, but he expects that he ONLY needs 15 BTC by the end of 2028, he could start to treat his excess BTC as BTC that he can play with, and yet again, he has made that assessment regarding how many BTC he believes that he needs to have later down the road, and calculating that he has more than he needs to have based in that timeline, even though 20 BTC would not reach his already defined entry-level fuck you status until around mid-2027, but if he is o.k. with the goal of late 2029, then these are balances.. including balances that can help to figure out how to treat the BTC price moves and maybe various points that he might choose to sell parts of his BTC at various prices on the way up while knowing that he does not want to go below 15 BTC... and so he can make those kinds of calculations with my raking tool while plugging in his own numbers on the Google Spreadsheet that fillippone created.

I am feeling like I am getting off topic.. because the main point is to make sure that we get to an accumulation level that would justify the starting of shaving off profits, but we gotta get there first, without expectations of being able to buy back if we do end up shaving off some profits.

Quote from: Troytech on March 07, 2024, 11:06:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2024, 06:06:01 PM

Quote from: Moreno233 on March 07, 2024, 07:18:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2024, 06:08:12 AM

Quote from: Ricardo11 on March 06, 2024, 03:08:58 PM

Bitcoin reached very close to its last ATH, Bitcoin ATH of $69,044, and Bitcoin went as high as $68,912 in the last 24 hours ago. Bitcoin just failed to break its previous ATH high of $134. And currently the price of Bitcoin is $66,022.37. But I hope it happens very soon. I expect Bitcoin to break its previous ATH very soon.

You must have your references incorrect, since we have already reached an ATH.

It seems that many people are not even aware that Bitcoin created a new all time high this month. It surprises me a lot because this is not the first time I am seeing a comment suggesting that some people are not aware of it. Maybe they are expecting it after the halving.

I get the sense that there might be some misleading going on, and people repeat what they hear, even when it is factually inaccurate. In bitcoin we have price battles and we also have informational battles, and frequently the weird spins can scare normies from actually buying bitcoin or holding onto the bitcoin that they already accumulated, so again, we get back to personal responsibility, including that if we are posting the same kind of bullshit disinformation, then it should be pointed out if we are stating information that is not even true... even if it is a little thing, members should bare some responsibility over the information that they post, and try to be factually accurate, especially over information that seems fairly easy to verify.

IMO i think this personal responsibility goes to both sides, not just the posters but also the readers, any one seakimg information shoudl also be aware that information could be inaccurate judging that a majority just follows what others others saying without even tested or tried it out and would just give that same information out just because they believed it and everyone and anyone can in some cases be guilty of such mistakes when it comes to sharing information because of our inadequacy of personal experience or practice in what we are sharing.

Fair enough. Sometimes any of us could make mistakes in terms of the information that we post, so yeah, sometimes it is not intentional, but it still might be irritating if some members are posting shitty and potentially misleading information.. yet at the same time we are on a forum and there are going to be all kinds of levels of slopiness, wrongness and even learning along the way... so readers have responsibility too..

Quote from: Troytech on March 07, 2024, 11:06:38 PM

So if this is quite inevitable that factually inaccurate information would always be shared then readers and researchers should try to filter that information, like on this thread you would find so many opinions but I just make sure I filter what I read out by actually putting some to practice that that I am knowing what is right from wrong myself.

For sure. Critical thinking and many of us learn better from both interacting and also from trying to put some of the ideas into practice and then sharing some of those ideas. That's why a lot of us are here and continue to participate.

Quote from: Troytech on March 07, 2024, 11:06:38 PM

But I some cases filtering information can be quite difficult especially when the false sounds so good to be true or people want to believe what sounds best to them, like some persons would not like the advice not to sell thsi bulk run even as early investors and would give excuses to still do it taking that information as their choice and other would choice to stick with the plan of not selling irrespective of other information around. So I think readers has a place in the responsibility as at the end the decision is their to make and would or can blame no body for advice or opinions shared.

I agree with you that we have to figure some of these things out, but I think that it still can be good to blame posters if they are posting either nonsense or bad information. and sometimes they might be making mistakes, and other times they might even be posting bad information on purpose, while trying to act innocent and dumb... or trying to act like they are a normal person, when the aren't. So sometimes we need to be ready, willing and able to point out how some seemingly innocent information might not be as innocent as it seems to be... and yeah, maybe sometimes we might be wrong when we accuse another member of providing bad information, but sometimes members need to be called out or pointed out if their information is not good.

I provide information that sometimes might be wrong or might be based on my opinion, and sometimes the weaknesses need to be pointed out.. especially if I might have said something that is misleading... or maybe not sufficiently backed up.. .. and yeah, we don't necessarily need to back up everything that we say, unless maybe if it is confusing or complicated, yet sometimes I will refuse to back up any further after I already posted.. so any of us can be stubborn in regards to what we post.