Quote from: blckhawk on Today at 03:10:09 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2024, 08:33:54 PM

You are correct that past performance does not guarantee future results, yet you still have to decide how you are going to allocate any investment that you are going to make, including if you happen to be a no coiner and you decide to stay a no coiner. that is a decision, and so good luck if you choose to stay on zero when it comes to bitcoin when the most likely better conclusion would be to figure out what your target accumulation level should be, perhaps somewhere between 5% and 25% would be a good start, but hey if you prefer to stay on zero, that's surely your right to make that decision for yourself and your own financial circumstances.

I like to think that bitcoin's an exception to that rule,

No. There is no exception. You cannot use past performance to figure out future performance.

However, you can assess the assets fundamentals based on past performance, and you can also assign probabilities to various future scenarios, and surely with bitcoin, any of us who are studying it and attempting to understand it, we should be recognizing and appreciating that BTC's network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer) are continuing to expand, which likely continues to strengthen bitcoin's investment thesis.

My entry-level fuck you status chart shows the past performance of bitcoins 200-WMA and attempts to assign values to the future advancement of the 200-WMA (which is the bottom price), yet at the same time I am using diminishing returns, and the next time I update it in May, I am going to have to plug in more bullish numbers because I was overly conservative on this particular trend at least for this 6 month period and likely for the rest of this cycle, too, which seems to show that the 200-WMA will be moving up more than 25% (50% annualized) instead of 16% (32% annualized) for our current 6-month period.

Quote from: blckhawk on Today at 03:10:09 AM

3 is sure still a coincidence in my book but knowing the popularity of bitcoin and the faith of many investors about it's growth and their devotion to it grows daily, I don't think that bitcoin will ever disappoint, it might take a long time before it will go up again once it has gone down but it will always surprise us when this happens, bitcoin's not any kind of altcoin out there that once it shows it's blaze of glory, it's all downhill from there, bitcoin doesn't really have to prove anything at this point, institutional investors are recognizing it as a legitimate investment tool even though it's still as volatile as ever.

Well yeah you seem to be describing both the value of networking effects contributing to exponential growth patterns that become even more dynamic, interesting and wide-spread when we are talking about value-laden information storage and transfer that is on the protocol level that is a paradigm shifting technology, which is likely to continue to contribute to ongoing exponential growth. Which means that the sooner you are in, the better that you are likely to be, and even if you are a bitcoin doubter or a bitcoin naysayer, it is probably better to get some, just in case... because it may well not return back down to lower numbers from here and it might not even return back down to current numbers once it goes up more.

So, having said all of that, none of it is guaranteed, even though we can become more informed about the asset from its past performance and understanding the what is going on in terms of the underlying asset, so if we put those ideas into a proper context we can better understand where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going forward, but we should not be merely predicting future performance based on past results - even though the past results help to inform us about the asset.

Quote from: blckhawk on Today at 03:10:09 AM

It's really weird to me that people are still on the fence when it comes to bitcoin investing, if you really want to invest in it, you probably have a really good benefit if you stop thinking and doubting and just start accumulating through DCA no matter what happens to the market.

Even people who took whimpy investment stances have done quite well with their bitcoin investment as long as they mostly accumulated bitcoin and held it without selling it.

So yeah, you could be a skeptic about bitcoin and take a more whimpy investment, and you are likely going to be better off by getting off zero. .which is also what i had been saying since around 2014 with the suggestion for normie newbies to get at least 1% into bitcoin, even if they are skeptical of it. Since 2024, I have upped my recommendation for normie newbies to start out with 5% to 25%, yet of course, they have to figure out the details, and sure just like in the past, it is still going to take a long time for normie newbies to get into bitcoin. We are still early and the number of world wide adoption is quite small, even though there are some folks who are disproportionately gobbling up the supply, which is another reason why getting in early is likely better than waiting.

We are currently in very interesting times, and the next few months are going to continue to be interesting, and likely we are going to continue to have interesting times throughout 2024 and probably dragging into 2025 in terms of ongoing upward price pressures on bitcoin. I have my doubts about those theories that suggest that we will get through a whole cycle by this year, and it is more likely that it is going to take all of this year and at least most of 2025 to play out, while at the same time bitcoin can always have surprises, both to the upside and to the downside, even if we might keep the 4-year fractal in mind in terms of a a base case scenario of what we expect, we still cannot feel any kind of guarantee that the base case (or the 4-year fractal) is going to hold, and we are going to be in a way better position after we have passed through it to see how well it has compared to previous 4-year fractals.. while at the same time, some people may well say I told you so in regards to the matching of the pattern, and I have no problem with that, even though each of us should be attempting to prepare to stay in the game rather than expecting that we know for sure what is going to happen, so we have to be prepared for extremes in either direction that may or may not end up breaking prior patterns.