Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 07:26:11 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 14, 2024, 03:39:57 AM

Quote from: MusaPk on March 14, 2024, 03:15:37 AM

.....One must have a plan where he must gather bitcoins before he start thinking to sell some of his holdings. How many Bitcoins are sufficent is a subjective question. So some people 100 Bitcoins are low while for many getting even 1 bitcoin is difficult.

I would suggest that how many BTC is not completely subjective - even though it is based on the setting of subjective goals... So if someone might tell you what his goals are, then you would likely be able to determine a quantity of BTC that would likely satisfy the goal.

So for example, if a guy tells you that in 10 years, he would like to be able to have a monthly income of $5k without having to do any work - beyond just keeping track of his various accounts... Then at that point you have some ideas of an approximate number of coins that the guy might need to work towards getting, and I would say that if he works towards getting close to 5 BTC for the middle of 2034, then that would likely be more than enough to meet his goals... and perhaps even 3-4 BTC might be enough... yet we cannot really know, so then he should work towards getting to 5 BTC within the next 10 years.. which may or may not be doable for all people, and if it is not doable.

Then if he changes his goal to the same kind of idea of cashflow, but with a back up target for 15 years, then I would suggest that by mid-2039, then he is likely ONLY going to need around 2.5 BTC by mid-2039 in order to reach that same objective of having a monthly income of right around $5k.. so then he has something that he believes that he might be able to reach, and if he speculates that inflation might eat away the targets, then surely maybe he could try to shoot for more BTC and to have some cushion in his goals, and so we can largely ONLY attempt to give some directional guidelines that might need to be adjusted with the passage of time...yet I would still suggest that aggressive accumulation of bitcoin should be part of the formula, and the details can be tweaked at various points along the way.

$5K is a huge amount for people living in country like mine i.e. Pakistan. Those who are in developed country like Europe or USA can have the luxury of having such high income per month but only few one here can have that much high income. Here average salary per month is 300$. So defiantly I can't go with this plan.

Well, I somewhat randomly picked a goal that might be a goal of someone in the west, but if you think that the goal is too high, then you can reduce the goal to your level. Perhaps $500 per month or $1k per month, and if the goal was $500 per month, then just reduce (multiply) everything that I already said by 1/10th. ... which means that either 0.5 BTC by mid 2034 or 0.25 BTC by mid 2039 would be sufficient to accomplish the goal of $500 per month, and if you wanted an extra cushion of $1k per month, then you would have to double the target amount.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 07:26:11 AM

But having less income doesn't mean that people like me have no place in Bitcoin. The beauty of Bitcoin is that it's open for everyone. There are billions of people in the world who are not in banking system due to various reasons and Bitcoin allows all such people to have there bank account where they have complete control over there money.

Of course. Bitcoin is for everyone or anyone who chooses to get involved in it, and anyone who gets involved investing in bitcoin within a way that is not overdoing it, then is likely going to have some benefits from such investments into bitcoin.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 07:26:11 AM

Having said that I do agree that the person having $5k income per month can have 5 BTC in next 10 years. One thing I should add is that we dont know what Bitcoin price will be in coming months. What we have seen so far is that there are dip's after every ATH. In Nov 2021 we saw an ATH of around $67K but then few months later we saw Bitcoin going down below $20k. So if someone is accumulating Bitcoins by investing $5k monthly into Bitcoin then he might end up getting more then 5 Bitcoins after 10 years if Bitcoin keep taking big dips.

I think that I have always suggested that guys try to be as aggressive as they can in their bitcoin investment without overdoing it, so if a guy has $100 per week that he can invest into bitcoin, then he should do that. By the way, I was not suggesting that the guy who is shooting for $5k per month income from bitcoin is able to invest $5k per month. The guy might currently be getting a $3k per month salary and maybe he has $2,000 per month of various expenses, and so the most that he could invest into bitcoin might be $250 per week, and maybe it varies between $150 and $250 per week depending on the variation in his expenses... or even the variation in his income.

So yeah, if the price corrects, he is able to buy more bitcoin and if the price goes up too rapidly then he may well not be able to get as many BTC as he thought that he would be able to get. If he is on target and overly accumulating bitcoin, then maybe that is not a bad problem to have, or maybe if he is under accumulating, he might have to change either his target accumulation level or maybe change his timeline until such a point that both the timeline and the amount of BTC accumulated overlap... and of course, he will likely monitoring these matters along the way, and I personally like to use the 200-WMA in terms of the valuation of the BTC holdings in order to give greater protections to anyone who would not be pulling the fuck you lever too soon (prior to being actually in a good financial and/or psychological place with his BTC holdings relative to his expectations for how much income he is going to be drawing from such BTC holdings.).

In recent times, I have also been coming toward thinking that a guy might not need to have as much of a bitcoin savings as he would have to have in traditional investments since with a bitcoin investment, he likely would be able to employ a higher withdrawal rate of 6-10% in bitcoin as compared with 4% in traditional investments.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:45:54 PM

Even though I am already coming to conclude that it is likely in bitcoin that we are not going to need as much of a nest egg as we need in traditional finances in order to support ourselves from our BTC stash, since in traditional investment we need right around 25x our income in order to be able to live off of our income (which is assuming a 4% withdrawal rate), and I am starting to consider that with bitcoin 10-16.7 years of income may well be enough (which is assuming a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate).. but it is still risky to overly rely on the newer models and those kinds of potential more aggressive withdrawal rates that bitcoin might be able to provide since it is more of an untested system and fairly new, so it may well be much better to rely on more conservative models and to have some cushion in the size of he BTC stash before pulling any fuck you lever that would then put you in a position where you are having to live off of your BTC stash.

Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 09:01:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 15, 2024, 04:25:40 PM

[edited out]

Everything that you said is correct @JJG. If an investor has decided that no matter the ugly situation that plays out during his early stage of accumulation, that he will steadily carry out his DCA purchase weekly, it is possible that he will not skip any week. It all depends on how the investor takes that plan serious and his determination to make it work out. I could remember when I just started my bitcoin journey from here, I said I will always make sure my weekly DCA is not skipped for any reason. I have an account where my emergency funds is, and I don't have much idea on reserve funds, but I can always get funds from one or two places, should incase I want to entertain myself or just go on a vacation without touching my emergency funds.

Unlucky for me one day my emergency funds account got hacked, and all my funds was stolen. Although it was all my fault due to a mistake that I made which made my that account vulnerable to the hackers. I was not happy, but I continued DCAing weekly as usual, and I was building an emergency funds all over again praying for an emergency not to occur that will affect me financially. A neighbor of mine died, and he does not have a family that any of us know about, and he needs to be buried. Nobody was able to come up with a reasonable amount of money, and this person was somehow social with people. So I had to take care of major responsibility after when I saw that, nobody is serious on how to raise funds. I don't also have any funds on me, and I had to seek for funds from a good friend of mine in my working place, and I was able to take care of the deceased bills and he was buried. All these didn't make me skip my DCA because I had to use the front load strategy for one month before I got paid

The point is that when you have determined to use DCA to grow your bitcoin investment portfolio persistently and constantly, you will always what to think of how to have different ways to raise funds, so that no matter what circumstances that play out along the line, you will be able to handle it without skipping any week, because you know that skipping a week means you have extended the time that you would use to reach your bitcoin target. One annoying thing about when you miss a week is that bitcoin price might be cheap at that time that you missed.

However, if a beginner was unable to handle the situation on ground due to his low financial strength at that moment, he can skip a week, and when he is buoyant enough later, he can buy back that week that he skipped. What I mean is that if for instance the investor had a challenge that made him skip week 6, and on week 10, he had extra money that he can use to buy twice his weekly size, he should buy to replace the midst week. This is because our income sometimes varies from month to month.

Yep. The more that you build different options for yourself and different kinds of funds, then the more likely you will not get into a pickle in regards to your BTC, and also you can some times buy extra BTC to make up for some of your earlier missing of times that you would have had wanted to buy BTC... You likely have to balance how many BTC you already have and what might be your goals, and sometimes if you perceive the BTC price to be in a dip, you may want to be extra aggressive in your BTC accumulation during those kinds of times.. but yeah sometimes emergencies or even other kinds of needs for cash will also happen during periods in which you would prefer to buy more BTC, but you only have so many funds that you are comfortable to draw upon in order to make your BTC purchases during that period.

And, yeah another thing, sometimes we learn from our stupid mistakes in which maybe we get robbed or we suffer some expenses that could have had been avoided.. but if we have some systems in place, we also might be able to keep buying BTC (or maybe at least not sell any BTC) during times in which our finances are suffering. I recall one period in 2015 that I was able to skip paying rent for 2 months on a business due to some financial hardships, and then later down the road, I paid back the rent from those two months, and sometimes if we otherwise have good relationships, we can sometimes receive favors through our business relationships.

Quote from: Frankolala on Today at 12:39:03 PM

Quote from: Hewlet on Today at 11:54:05 AM

Quote from: Rabata on Today at 09:52:45 AM

Holders of Bitcoins can certainly get the ATH of Bitcoin as well as the DIP. But finding the Bitcoin Deep is truly a matter of luck for many. To be a Bitcoin holder it's not how much investment he has, I think it's how much he believes in Bitcoin that is the matter.

if you had changed the last part of your statement, maybe you should have made a little sense but what you said here, you've not made the right statement.

Believing in Bitcoin is good but what's the essence of believing in Bitcoin without having much investment? How much investment you have is very important and it's absolutely more importantly than what you believe. That you have investment much into Bitcoin suggests that you believe in Bitcoin and what you're trying to say in the religion sense could be compared to mere having faith without putting in the needed work. Just like faith without work is dead, having a strong believe and hope in Bitcoin without investing much into Bitcoin is literally waste of knowledge, fake believe and wouldn't do you any good.

I understand what you mean @Hewlet, but I think that Rabata is also right too. This is because cause it is when you believe in bitcoin that it can be a safe haven tomorrow, or that you can use it to turn your future around that will enable to hodli for a very long time, or even use it as part of your life. Now there are two scenario for you to look into.

The early investors, Mr A was opportune to buy bitcoin for as low as $100, because he did not understand the potential of bitcoin, and much believe in it, but he was able to buy 10BTC at that time. As time passes by he saw that bitcoin price is increasing with time line, and he sold when bitcoin was $1000, believing that he have hit the jackpot, forgetting that for bitcoin price to reach 1000k, that bitcoin is capable of reaching $10000 and higher, because he didn't have the strong believe in bitcoin, currently such investor will be regretting that he sold too quick. Same happens to people who see bitcoin as something that is worth hodling for short periods of time like 4yrs and they sell off to take profit. He don't believe in the future of bitcoin if not they will hodli for a longer time.

Now Mr B, also bought 10BTC when bitcoin price was $100,because he sees bitcoin as a very precious investment, because he believes that bitcoin price will be more valuable in future, and when bitcoin price was 1000k he didn't sell any bitcoin but rather continue holdi because he believes that for bitcoin to reach that high price, in future bitcoin can hit 100k price. No matter the challenges that Mr B has passed through based on FUD, FOMO. He was still strong enough to overcome them and hodli because he believes in bitcoin.

It is when you believe in bitcoin that you can be able to increase your bitcoin size and hodli for a very long time. Laszlo would not use 10000BTC to pay 2 papa John's pizza.

You can sell part of your BTC at various points on the way up. The guy who 10 BTC bought at $100 might sell 0.25 BTC at $500, and 0.25 BTC at $1k, and then maybe every time the BTC price goes up $1k he sells anther 0.25 BTC, or maybe instead of selling 0.25 BTC, he decides that he is going to sell a certain percentage of his BTC (maybe somewhere between 1% and 5%) for every time the BTC price goes up 50%.

There is nothing wrong with any of those strategies, and maybe even the guy ends up with way more cash and even though his BTC quantity is going down he is happy with that... and maybe if the BTC price happens to correct, he can buy back, but when he sells parts of his BTC, he is not selling with any expectation to buy back.