Quote from: Troytech on March 16, 2024, 10:50:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 16, 2024, 10:16:04 PM

[edited out]

I know I've not been that long in bitcoin but at least if this bull run is over I would count that as one cycle cause I started accumulating during the bear market and one thign I noticed is how much it is hard to hold in such market conditions and how it can affect the best of us especially those that have a major portion of their asset or Value stored in bitcoin,

I am confused. I thought that you ONLY recently started accumulating bitcoin.. so if so, you were not investing in a bear market.

And, even if you started investing in the last 16 months, it was not a bear market.

I will grant that we might not have realized that the last 16 months had been a bull market until either mid-2023 or maybe it did not sink in with enough evidence until around October 2023... but the fact of the matter is that any investment strategies that you had been employing in bitcoin in the last 16 months had not been during a bear market.

You cannot proclaim that it was a bear market merely because it was below the previous ATH.. the fact of the matter of the last 16 months is that the BTC price had been pretty much going up the whole time even though there were some corrections in there and some of us might not have had been clear about it having had been a bull market the whole time.

In other words it is a bunch of bullshit when people are mislabelling what kind of market that we were in....

Now, if you had been in the market in late 2021 and through out 2022, then you would have been in a bear market, yet you would not have realized that you were in a bear market until maybe some time around May 2022 it became somewhat clear that we were in a bear market.

I will grant you that we don't really necessarily know what kind of market we are in at the time that we are in it, so sometimes we should be talking with some caution about what kind of market that we are in, especially since laboring what kind of market we are in is a lagging indicator, and the mere fact that we might be in a bull market and there are some corrections in the middle of the bull market, the market does not change merely because there is a correction, even though we might not know where we are at, even though at any given time, we can see that we are in an uptrend or a correction or maybe a consolidation range.

Anyhow, part of my point is that the dynamics are different if you are getting in and you are buying while the BTC prices are going up as contrasted if you are buying while they are going down.

Now if you are mixing your actions by buying and selling (in other words trading) then that is another story, but if you are strictly buying, then you have a dynamic that either your holdings are continuously going into less and less profits (in a bear market) or you have the dynamics that your holdings are increasingly in profits (in a bull market).

Maybe you need to explain your timeline again in order for me or anyone else to understand when you were buying and what you were doing because my sense (or memory.. which might be faulty) is that you have not even been buying more than 16 months.. so therefore you were likely buying in a bull market, even if you might not have had realized it.. but feel free to correct me if my memory is wrong.

Quote from: Troytech on March 16, 2024, 10:50:20 PM

although I was so early I've had thoughts of how the old folks manages go persiver through all those hard times and one thign that came to my mind is how they all had a personal conviction about their investment In bitcoin and how they all consistently continued in their buying of bitcoin in all market conditions.

There is no way to answer for everyone, but if you are buying (or establishing a position in) bitcoin, then you could front load lump sum, DCA and/or buy on dips, and so maybe you could have a target allocation that you are wanting to reach in light of the rest of your investment portfolio... so if you initially establish what your target allocation is going to be, then it could make some differences if you are acquiring your position while the BTC position is going up versus acquiring it while the BTC prices are going up.

If you are not sure about what your target is, then you would just have a budget and just continue to accumulate BTC.. within the budget, and if the budget is not very BIG, then it could take several years before you try to consider or figure out what your target level of accumulation is going to be.

If you are worrying about getting in and out then you are trading/gambling and not investing.. so yeah, it likely depends on what kind of mindset you come to your investment... and of course, anyone is likely going to become nervous when the price is moving around a lot and he is still trying to establish his position since it could take a year or two to establish.. or maybe if there is lump sum investing up front, it still could take 6 months or more to establish a position, but if the price is moving around a lot then there could be some rethinking that ends up happening becaue the price is moving around a lot and perhaps the movements of the price could challenge the investment thesis. if the price moves had not been anticipated.

Quote from: Troytech on March 16, 2024, 10:50:20 PM

IMO in anything one wants to achieve great result in life persistence is one attribute that we must have even when thigns are quite against us, and I think one way to actually reduce the impact of those hard times is to have a long term plan for your investment, cause if its a short term or the time duration is too short like a year or two its so possible that your investment can still be mutually experiencing one side of the trend like the bear or maybe you bought at very high prices, you would most likely have feelings of failure in your investment but if you had a longer term plan its easier to have patience cause your approach to bitcoin won't be to solve a short term problem but for a longer term plan, like maybe reaching a fuck you status or retirement.

Well if you would have started out by buying towards the top of the market let's say at various times in 2021. It could have been early 2021 and then the price goes up and then drops and then goes up again and then drops. or even if you started towards the end of 2021, then you might have had front-loaded your investment, so then your cost per BTC would have had been quite high, and so when the price ends up dropping more than 70%, then you may well be a lot in the negative, and even if you keep buying, maybe you do not have enough money to really off set the amount that you bought at or near the top, so you end up staying in the negative for a couple of years.

A similar thing happened to Bukele (and El Salvador) He started buying in 2021, so he ended up buying a lot coins at or near the top, and sure it could have had been worse for him, but he (on behalf of El Salvador) had something in the mid $40ks as his average cost per BTC when the price dropped down to $15,479, and at some point he (El Salvador) resumed buying BTC and even announced in November 2022 that they (El Salvador) were going to resume buying at 1 BTC per day.

So I think it takes some level of commitment to continue to buy at a rate that you believe is reasonable, even while your BTC holdings are in the negative, overall and on average. So if you keep buying while the price is below your average costs, each time you buy more BTC, you are bringing down your average costs per BTC... even though it may be just little by little, but then it does not take as much for the BTC price to go up in order for your BTC holdings to get back into profits.

Quote from: Troytech on March 16, 2024, 10:50:20 PM

From my little experience I know that it has been way easier for me to have patience and be consistent cause I know that my plan is for a much further future so I just tend to keep my eyes of profit and loss and focus more on accumulating bitcoin.

It may well be similar for anyone. If you have decently strong confidence that each new BTC purchase that you make is for 4-10 years or longer, and so even if you have older coins and newer coins and each of your purchases have differing costs, you still can also average them out and there may well be some excitement to be continuing to buy and bringing down your average cost per BTC, even if your holdings is still in the negative in the process of going through such ongoing BTC purchases.

By the way, any guys waiting for dips, now we have slightly more than 12% (from $73,794 down to $64,780, so far). Who knows if the BTC price is going to go lower on this particular correction.