Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:52:06 AM

Quote from: Salahmu on March 17, 2024, 06:41:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2024, 03:45:56 PM

[edited out]

However in terms of short-term investment I agree with you that most people normally get confused or couldn't distinguish between short-term and long term investment because one of the things I realized is that most people or rather investors feels that holding Bitcoin for six or seven months is a long term holding without knowing that they are only doing there normally trading because like you said a long term holding could be refer as holding Bitcoin for ten or more than ten years.

Yeah, sometimes we might be confusing the definitions, and it seems that bitcoin has a bit of a pattern that justifies the consideration of the 4-year cycle, even if the cycle may well end up getting broken at some point... however, if we already have a pattern of a 4 -year cycle, then, it is likely helpful to at least attempt to recognize that such pattern has so far tended to play around the timeline of the halvening.

It's true that bitcoin has a certain degree of cyclicality, and much of that appears to be related to the halving. The fact that the reward for mining bitcoin gets cut in half every four years has a big impact on the market. Some say that the so-called "halving cycle" is responsible for some of the most extreme bull and bear markets.
Although the halving appears to be the most significant element responsible for some of the largest bull and bear markets, But there are still a few other factors that may influence the bitcoin price cycle.

For example, there's the idea of the "stock-to-flow" ratio, which is a measure of how scarce bitcoin is relative to how much is in circulation. This ratio tends to increase after the halving, which can have an impact on price. There's also the "bull market top" indicator, which is based on the idea that the price of bitcoin tends to peak about a year after the halving. These are just a few examples of other theories that try to explain the bitcoin price cycle.

Quote from: Salahmu on March 17, 2024, 06:41:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2024, 03:45:56 PM

Quote from: Troytech on March 17, 2024, 05:51:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2024, 02:50:41 AM

[edited out]..Now if you are mixing your actions by buying and selling (in other words trading) then that is another story, but if you are strictly buying, then you have a dynamic that either your holdings are continuously going into less and less profits (in a bear market) or you have the dynamics that your holdings are increasingly in profits (in a bull market).

I highlighted a paragraph out, I've not been mixing strategies, I've been buying but I always thought we have been in the bear Market and I have also expressed myself in terms if us beign in the bear market but right now I feel my perspective of what a bear market or bull market is shattered, so I think it would be fair if I could explain more about it.

I already explained and probably overly explained, and so you need to think in longer timelines. In essence, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, and I give little shits about what others say about the various corrections along the way. The market does not change back and forth.

on the other hand, we could fairly assess that we might not have had realized that we were in a bull market until either mid-2023 or even as late as October 2023, but surely at some point, we would have or should have realized that we were in a bull market rather than a bear market since November 2022.

Bull market is that the price is generally trending up (even if there may well be short or long periods of corrections in between).

In other words, you cannot be flipping back and forth, and clearly even if we were in a correction in December 2023.. who gives any shits.. we were still obviously already in a bull market, even if there was a correction.

People frequently get confused by the short-term and/or overly obsess about the short term.. and especially if you already stated that you are planning to invest for a whole cycle, then there seems to be almost no reason to be getting worked up about various short term moves.

Of course, any of us still wants to try to minimize his cost per BTC, but there is ONLY so much that we are able to do about those kinds of things, especially if we are new to bitcoin and still building our stash...

As I already mentioned, if you have been buying since December (or even in the past 16 months) the value of your holdings are generally in profits, and I am not even proclaiming that you are not faced with any dilemma, since when BTC is in this kind of bull market, there may well be a lot of advantages to front loading and investing as much as possible earlier rather than stringing out purchases, but at the same time, if you are new to bitcoin (and/or investing), you may well not have much if any choice based on how much (or the lack) that you have in your own finances to be able to dedicate to BTC purchases.

In other words, there are some advantages, towards buying when the BTC price is going down rather than when it is going up.. but you cannot really affect those kinds of situations. You have to play with the cards that you have, and figure out what you are going to do and how you are going to deal with the current dynamics as well as future dynamics that are not really known very well until after they happen.

Of course like I already mentioned on my previous post there is an advantage of buying when the Bitcoin price is lower but we shouldn't draw all our focus or target on buying Bitcoin only when the price is going down because the probability of Bitcoin dipping the way they expected may not be certain, however if they most go for dip it will surely depend on there investment portfolio if they wish to still utilize the opportunity if Bitcoin is going down, perhaps they could channel some of there funds on Lump sum while they continue investing on the normal price of the Bitcoin.

One of the worse mistakes most Bitcoin investors make is trying to time the market, rather than going ahead to buy, they decide to wait for when they believe to be the right time, which is when the price of Bitcoin drops, then they go ahead to buy. This is an approach for novice investors. Honestly, when I first began my Bitcoin journey, the idea and approach I began with was to wait for the price of Bitcoin to drop to a certain level then I go ahead to buy and wait for the price to go up again so I can take out my profits and then wait for another dip which I saw as an opportunity to invest.
But along the line, when I learned about DCA approach, I realized at that point that I wasn't really investing in Bitcoin, but Gambling with my money all these while, because I was chasing after the short-term gain that Bitcoin has to offer which was/is in no sense compared to the long-term benefits associated with Bitcoin investment.
And ever since I started using the DCA technique, I've not only observed that it's a more better and safer approach but I also noticed that DCA has helped to eliminate the mental stress associated with trading and now my investment isn't affected by sudden market fluctuations.

Quote from: Salahmu on March 17, 2024, 06:41:19 PM

You are absolutely correct; six or seven months is still considered short-term when it comes to Bitcoin investing. Many individuals believe that holding Bitcoin for a few months is a long-term investment, however this is not the case. Due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, even a year or two can be considered short-term. However, if you hold Bitcoin for a decade or more, you will be able to weather the market's ups and downs and reap the benefits of long-term investment.

Many Bitcoin investors struggle to understand the difference between short-term and long-term since it is not as obvious as it appears. In traditional investing, long-term is frequently defined as a few years, but in the world of cryptocurrency, this is not the case. One approach to figure out the differences is to consider the objectives of each form of investment. Short-term investing is typically about making immediate profits, but long-term investing is primarily about building wealth over time. As a result, each technique requires a distinct attitude.

Quote from: teamsherry on Today at 12:13:09 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 17, 2024, 03:45:56 PM

In other words, there are some advantages, towards buying when the BTC price is going down rather than when it is going up.. but you cannot really affect those kinds of situations. You have to play with the cards that you have, and figure out what you are going to do and how you are going to deal with the current dynamics as well as future dynamics that are not really known very well until after they happen.

everyone loves buying from the dip cause they accumulate more for cheaper price, but as an investor we must also be well prepared for both market trends and learn to keep on accumulating no matter what, with proper planning and building up our funds we can also grow to better take advantage of those bear season well when we have well built reserves or have found a way to increase or source of income.

You have a good point there. Even though buying the dip can appear to be a good strategy towards accumulating Bitcoin, we still shouldn't be adamant about the fact that timing the market or waiting for a dip before you buy Bitcoin is only a good strategy if your goals towards Bitcoin investment are short-term, when used for long-term goals, buying the dip wouldn't be as helpful as it appears to look, it would only end up looking like an over hyped or over exaggerated strategy due to its ineffectiveness.

Considering and having a diverse range of strategies as well as a solid financial foundation could be be even more effective when focusing on the long-term. Also, having multiple sources of incomes can also be a huge help, especially during a bear market. Also having an emergency fund would also appear to be really helpful because it will help you avoid the temptations of running to your investment whenever you have financial needs or an emergency.