Quote from: dzungmobile on Today at 01:54:24 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 12:19:01 PM

For sure, 2022 was a bear year. For me, 2024 is supposed to be a consolidation year (from the 2022 bear and 2023 recovery).

The noise from Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, Grayscale won lawsuit against SEC, appearance of Black Rock changed a lot. Without them, we probably have Bitcoin lower than $50,000, not a new all time high before halving.

Yes, this I agree with and have maintained as an opinion since the ETF. For now, the ETFs will follow the market, not the other way around. At least until most Bitcoin held long-term is in ETFs rather than self-custody.

Quote from: dzungmobile on Today at 01:54:24 PM

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The fact we've massively overshot the recovery to new ATH doesn't change much for me.

This is an expensive question and also lesson for many people. They naively think this time will be different, but the market, the psychology of market participants are not different. So mostly we don't have any different time.

This time it still could be different, and arguably already has been different. That of making an ATH prior to the halving which has never happened before. But I think price aside, the dyanmics of the 4 year cycle will still play out, especially since the current recovery has been over 12 months, meaning there is a lot of room for 3-9 months of consolidation, starting with a correction.

Quote from: dzungmobile on Today at 01:54:24 PM

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Maybe you meant 2020 as the comparison...

Nope. I actually meant 2020 (the time this thread was created) and this year, when we surprisingly have a new all time high. I did it to make a funny question only.

Well you said 2022, not 2020, so wasn't that funny Tongue

Quote from: dzungmobile on Today at 01:54:24 PM

I agree that to compare two cycles, it makes more sense to compare 2024 and 2020.

Even if you compare to 2024 to 2016, there's not a lot of difference. Namely a correction followed by correction prior to and after the halving.