Quote from: Lucius on March 19, 2024, 03:05:43 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on March 19, 2024, 12:39:49 PM

Isn't it $40b? It shouldn't take that long I don't think, maybe another month or two? Especially if the selling continues to increase.

Can someone remind me how much Bitcoin GBTC had to begin with, how much they've sold already? Want to calculate what the timeframe is looking like.

Ironically without GBTC outflows, there basically are no outflows, even if lower inflows at present, which speaks volumes...

The sooner that GBTC is flushed out the market the better.

At the time of approval of the spot ETFs, Grayscale had just over 600 000 BTC, and according to the data I am looking at today, it has about 368 000 BTC - which means that their bag is still quite full. It seems that a few more months will pass until they sell everything they have planned.

Source

So according to CoinTelegraph, it'd be around 4 months (though the wording "current rate" shouldn't be considered accurate here):

Quote from: CoinTelegrah

If its outflows continue at the current rate, it could be out of assets by as soon as late July.

By my calculations, and current average selling, it'd be more like 3 months (26.6 billion (total) / 274.2 million (average per day) = 97 days). Based on the actual current rate, for example this week's average so far of 542.5 per day, it would actually take 49 days. So somewhere between 1.6 months (current rate) and 3.2 months (average so far). That puts the estimated range as May 8 to June 23. The middle of that range is May 30*.

The fact GBTC is recording record outflows is a good thing however and should be encouraged. The sooner they sell their coins, the better, it is literally just a matter of time. If anything, the lack of inflows at current price is more of a concern in the immediate term, with Blackrock recording their lowest inflows to date of only $75m, compared to an average of $277m. Especially when the record of $849m was made at $70K prices. Price has dropped -15% since then and remains at a 10% discount. Where did all the ETF buyers go? It gives the impression they only want to buy in big amounts on the way up, not on the way down (buying strength not weakness). It also shows that GBTC holders are not currently moving their investments to other ETFs, but instead to cash to put it in simple terms (at least this week). This is all only based on two days of data, so is too early to tell, similar to how ETF data in general is only 3 months old (mostly during an uptrend), so is too early to tell whether investors will be buying down as well as up.

*Probably should be noted that it's unlikely 100% of investors will flee GBTC, so the end date for continuous outflows could be much sooner