Quote from: WatChe on Today at 06:49:53 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:22:18 AM

Quote from: Alphakilo on March 21, 2024, 05:46:41 PM

Quote from: WatChe on March 21, 2024, 05:20:54 PM

The point is Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working.

His strategy about bitcoin is working because he is a strong believer in investing in assets with scarcity and high demand. Bitcoin stands out as one of such assets due to its capped supply of 21 million coins, making it highly scarce. Saylor has already predicted the continued growth, projecting a 200% annual increase over the next decade and he is putting his money where his mouth is.

I would suggest a 20% to 50% annual increase of the 200-WMA is more realistic in terms of attempting to predict the future from the past.. you cannot continue with the same historical rate of 2x per year, it does not make sense especially since the slope of the increase has been getting less steep with the passage of time.

This is 5 years Bitcoin price versus 200-WMA chart and its very much evident that slope of increase is getting less steeper with every passing year. There are patches where Bitcoin price may even go below 200-WMA and one has to bear that cycle with patience. While there are patches where 200-WMA completely outclass Bitcoin price like April 14, 2021 - Bitcoin price 63k and 200-WMA 11k.

Image Source

Well on that site you can plug in specific dates, and sure, you can see that the slope of the 200-WMA is getting less steep, but you can also see that the variance between the spot price and the 200-WMA was way greater in earlier years.

So for example, the early 2021 peak of the BTC spot price was 4x to 5x higher thant the 200-WMA, but the late 2021 peak was only 2x to 3x higher than the 200WMA.

The 2017 peak of the BTC price reached around 14x higher than the 200-WMA, and the late 2013 peak of the BTC spot price reached close to 27x higher than the 200-WMA.

So there are extremes, but there is no guarantees that the peak of this particular cycle is going to be lower than the 2021 cycle merely because the 2021 cycle was lower than the 2017 and the 2017 cycle was lower than the 2013 cycle. I am not going to claim to know about limits, but I would not be surprised if we were to be able to get higher magnitudes than the 2021 cycle, but even right now (today), we are currently right around 2x higher than the 200WMA, yet if we were to top at 4x higher than our current 200-WMA, then that would be a price of double today's price, which is $120k-ish - yet at the same time, the 200-WMA is continuing to move up right around $50 per day, so the target is getting higher, even if we were to merely have a top that is around 4x higher than the 200-WMA.

Regarding your points about the spot price only having infrequent periods below the 200-WMA. That is certainly true that even before 2022, the BTC price did not spend very much time at all ever below the 200-WMA, so when BTC spot prices were at their lowest points in the cycle, they were usually either barely touching the 200-WMA or alternatively, they might shortly spike below the 200-WMA for a few days at most.

So the period between mid 2022 and October 2023 were the most unusual for all of BTC's history in which there were months and months and months that the BTC price was below the 200-WMA and it had gotten as low as 35% below the 200-WMA... so even with that level of unusualness in the lowness of the BTC prices relative to the 200-WMA, the 200-WMA continued to go up and even went up at a rate of about 20% annualized during that record-breaking price slouching period.

So yes, we could have those kinds of low price periods again in bitcoin, yet I still consider the 200-WMA a good way to valuate your BTC holdings in order that none of us gets overly exuberant about the value of our BTC holdings merely based on BTC spot prices (even though if we are going to shave off any BTC, we are going to shave it off at spot prices and we can also consider if we might want to shave off a bit extra if we can see that the BTC spot price is at historically high levels as compared to the 200-WMA.. and so at the same time, historical levels might not give us any kind of specific picture regarding future BTC spot price performance... so we should attempt to do the best that we can with the tools that we have.

Regarding looking at the chart in logarithmic or linear scales, I understand that it is difficult to see the historical levels on the linear scale, so I believe that bitmover is still working on a way to be able to zoom into the earlier timeline and to look at the earlier times of the chart within a linear scale framework.