Quote from: hugeblack on Today at 02:26:25 AM

I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

Could you elaborate a bit more? Is your assumption based on variations of the selling pressure by miners?

My take on that is that miners' "power" to influence price is declining and already quite small, as they're a small minority of all BTC sellers now (about 0,1 % if you take total exchange volume, may be higher on the BTC/USD market though).

Quote from: Plaguedeath on Today at 10:55:00 AM

Most of Average Joes didn't think Bitcoin is the best asset for long term holding.

That's actually part of the problem why we have seen no Supercycle yet. It's a self-reinforcing cycle.

Quote from: davis196 on Today at 11:24:52 AM

You could just use the term "mass adoption of Bitcoin" instead of writing all that text. Grin

No, seems you didn't understand the post. "Mass adoption" could also mean that every single person in the world adopts the habit of buying low and selling high. This is absolutely the kind of mass adoption which will keep the harsh bull-bear cycles in place. And no, it's not only noobs who are selling at the cycle tops or when they think the bear market has begun. The whales do the same thing, and pro traders short the market.

You could shorten the examples I gave to something like "stability-oriented mass adoption". Or "mass adoption without cyclic speculation". But the type of adoption is still crucial.