Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:49:42 AM

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place, .. but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

I pretty much understand your point sir @JayJuanGee

I wasn't trying to specifically point out anything related to your actual finances, but instead giving an example of a wage and an ongoing aggressive BTC accumulation that could have had happened in the last 18 months at a rate of about 15% of someone's income... and yeah, some guys might not been able to accumulate BTC that aggressively because they may well have to put other aspects of their finances in place and also figuring outways to either increase their income or to cut their expenses in order to potentially achieve that level of aggressiveness... and that was part of the reason that I suggested that I anticipated that your situation was likely not even as good as the one that I was describing in terms of being able to get to a point of having 6 months worth of your income in BTC after ONLY being in bitcoin for less than 18 months.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

and you're definitely right, like I keep on saying I haven't gotten far with my accummulation so I'm far from thinking of withdrawing now ,

I was not even really suggesting any kind of withdrawal even under those kinds of circumstances that were described in which the BTC price could double from here and then double again, and then those kinds of dynamics should be considered.. even though for sure a guy with even 2-3 years of value in BTC does not really seem to be in a position of withdrawing, but he may well be in a position in which he might been some needs to reallocate an to diversify out, whether it is bolstering his emergency fund and/or his float or diversifying into some other assets - and I surely am not referring to shitcoins or even locking up large amounts of value.. and yeah, there are guys who are in places in which it is nearly impossible to invest into anything besides bitcoin and shitcoins, so those are choices that guys would be faced with . and anyone getting into gambling shitcoins better be limiting his exposure to less than 10% of his BTC holdings.. .. .. but anyhow, since we have guys from all over the world, there could be guys who have access to investing into index funds or something, and even if they have 2-3 years of income in BTC, they still might be in a good place to merely bolster their emergency funds and reserves a bit.. and that could be enough..

and, yeah, if you are not quite even close to that and even if your BTC holdings might ONLY be 3 months of your annual income, then it well could take a 10x increase in BTC prices, and then 3 months turns into 30 months, so those are the kinds of scenarios, even guys with modest BTC holdings should be taking into account in terms of what is possible in the next 6 to 18 months - even though maybe the odds are not exactly that high to end up getting a 10x from here so quickly.. but you never know with BTC.. In March 2020, we dipped down to $3,850 and then maybe we could say that we bounced back to $10k-ish by late in the year (2020), yet within the next 12 months we were 6x and 7x higher than those $10k prices... ..

And, surely some folks might not consider the kind of runs from 2017 to be possible or likely, but those 2 years resulted in more than a 78x price appreciation from the 2015 bottom to the 2017 top.. .. but then maybe we might say that they measuring point might NOT start until around January 2017 when we reached $1k, and so by the end of 2017, we had accomplished a 20x.. so the BIG numbers are possible and they should be considered in terms of where your BTC holdings might be and if you might need to consider some adjustments based on those kinds of possible levels of exuberance and outrageousness.. and sure it may be the case that you just keep accumulating and hold through it. and make tiny adjustments along the way and just let the BTC price do whatever it is going to do while you just continue to regularly stack sats.. whether the BTC price is high or low..

and I am not even opposed to that.. especially for both a guy that is still going through his first whole cycle and a guy who also might not have a high discretionary/disposable income, it may well be the best of strategies just to continue to pace yourself through the whole matter however it ends up playing out.. which surely guys who were new to bitcoin and went through either the 2017 price run or the 2021 price run, they would have still ended up fine by just continuing to buy the whole time.. . which was kind of the case for me, except I started at the top of the 2013 run, so I started while the price was going down rather than while it was going up.. so the dynamics are a bit different in terms of what might be reasonable and how to play it.. even though in the long run DCA does still end up working for both, especially for any persons with relatively low levels of disposable/discretionary income.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

my aim now is to keep accumulating and hodl till I hit my accummulation goal. Like I said back then I focus mainly on trading which eventually was a damn waste of time, so back then I wasn't as aggressive I am now due to knowing about the thread and the knowledge I have acquired from it concerning Bitcoin investment.

Trading does seem to be worse.. and yeah, if you are able to figure out some consistent system to focus on BTC accumulation, then you likely will be good.. .. .. even though like jossiel mentioned there can be quite a few psychological challenges to go through real BIG price swings, yet we cannot even really know how much of a price correction is going to happen or how long it is going to last until after it has happened, so there are a lot of guys who end up selling too much too soon and they are never really able to figure out when to buy back. when they likely would have been better to just keep buying regularly because at least that way they can see the number of their sats increasing, even though the value per sat might be fluctuating a lot along the way, too.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

Well to be honest most of us here are not able to be more aggressive the way we wanna in our Accumulation due to our earnings not being able to keep up

The meaning of aggressiveness does not have to do with the amount that you are putting in.. because even if you are ONLY putting in $10 per week, you might be being as aggressive as you are able to be.. so I am not really talking about amounts when I refer to aggressiveness.. but there are ways that you can be aggressive by just making sure that you have all your financial and mental matters in order, so then you are able to afford to be more aggressive than someone who is disorganized and is not paying attention to his cashflow, his emergency fund, his reserves and his float.. and so yeah, you might also make some mistakes because you might sometimes get too aggressive, but if you are planning through various aspects, then your mistakes are not likely going to be enough to put you out of the game.. the mistakes end up not being able to buy for a few weeks or having to use some of your emergency fund because you fucked up with your management of your reserves and/or your float. and things like that.. so part of this whole matter is staying in the game, since there are hostile governments and hostile financial institutions that would like to remove you from your coins and even discourage and/or dissuaded you from accumulating bitcoin... I get the sense that some of the matters related to fees in the last 6 months were attacks on the psychology and the finances of poor people, and so poor people have to figure out ways to be more organized and to put systems in place so that you can still accumulate bitcoin, even when there are forces working against you, and surely as I said before holding your own keys, but maybe you have to build up your wallet size on some exchange to get it up to $500 or $1k before you move it to a private wallet.. which also can cause additional risks that you have to figure out for yourself you level of wanting to deal with that or you might screw yourself if you end up having 400 transactions that are valued between $10 and $100 and when you should have taken measures to limit the number of UTXOs that you have that are so small like that.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

but all I know is that as my earnings or sources multiply as time goes so as my accumulating rate would also multiply .

It is not guaranteed but surely we have quite a bit of evidence in place that bitcoin is going to continue to have a lot more UPside movements, so this is a good place to be, yet you still have to figure out your position size and your balancing of you position size with real world concerns.. so that you will have enough fiat during times in which you need it.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

Just as you said we are still in the early stage,

Yep.. we get arguments about whether 1% adoption has already happened or not, and there can be some distortions since there are a lot of rich people gobbling up the supply.. which also will deter poor people from doing their own gobbling up of coins... so there are so many normies who don't realize that they are going to need bitcoin, ... .while at the same time none of us knows the future exactly.. which again gets us back to figuring out our position size.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

though have missed alot of opportunity in investing in bitcoin but this time around am not planning to take any chances, I will keep accumulating going even though it take me a whole cycle to hit my goal it still worth it.

Many people will probably need to take more than a whole cycle and even 2-3 cycles or more.. to be able to really get to a point of accumulating enough BTC.. so you might end up being ahead of the game, even if you perceive that you were a bit of a slow starter.. but there are a lot of folks who consider that they are too late, but they end up not doing anything or they get distracted into shitcoins because they are searching for the next bitcoin or the quick 10x or quick 100x.. .. hahahahahaha .. I remember some of the trolls were even worse in 2017 when they were arguing that BTC was not going up fast enough and pumping their shitcoin bullshit. ..and yeah, there might have been some of them who were able to get in and out of their shitcoin, but just holding BTC worked pretty damned good for guys who bought and held through that whole period, even though guys will sometimes start to get depressed when the BTC price is down 50% and it keeps correcting... and so the end of the correction remains unclear.. but the guys who kept buying through 2018, 2019 and 2020.. ended up looking like geniuses later down the road.. .. and so we cannot know how it will end up playing out this time.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 01:30:39 AM

And have alot to still learn from you sir JJG and other users here while I keep Accumulating .

No problem.. one of the best teachers is your own practices and your application and your coming back to help other guys. .. we are going to continue to get newbies, and even though you might be feeling like a newbie, at some point you are going to be having to teach the newbies who are coming here.. .. including figuring out ways to deal with the traders and the shitcoiners... who might not always be completely wrong.. but on this forum, there are other threads for that, too... yet they are still going to be coming into threads like this and also into some of the other bitcoin threads and either pumping shitcoins or trying to get you to sell your coins earlier than is probably for your own good... and likely many of us will also question our own practices.. because even if we are continuing to build our sats, we sometimes will consider if we might need to make some adjustments to get some more sats.. or more bang for the buck, which is part of the dilemma presented in this thread, even though many guys have considered DCA to be the best, buying the dip (or even lump summing) sometimes will get us more sats.. it is just quite difficult figure out when the dip is going to be, how far it will go or how long it is going to last.

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 01:40:22 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2024, 07:47:38 PM

So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:
1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover) - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) - less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) - less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) - less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) - less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) - around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m - around 7%

Thumbs up for this Jay. However, i believe its a complex task to predict the price movement of bitcoin. But you have made efforts to share your thoughts on what concerns you.

You have assigned a probability of <1% to Bitcoin reaching zero which I fully agree with you.

I made this prediction a bit spontaneously from numbers that came into my head (and wanting them to add up to 100%), and so I was also trying to ball park the numbers but also to frame the various possible price ranges in terms of both where we might be in 10 years (or what price range we might be in in 10 years).. based on where we are at right now.. and so if something were to change, I might have to change my ranges or my odds... so for example, if we were to shoot down to $20k or we shot up to $200k within the next 6 months, then I likely would have to reconsider matters.. and any of that kind of shooting around is quite likely, and it would probably be unlikely that the price would perform in such a gradual kind of way that my numbers would not end up changing along the way..

I frequently like to go by the 200-WMA, and so if that 200-WMA is kind of staying on track, then it gives decently good guidelines for where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going.. which I figure is represented in my entry-level fuck you status chart... which shows the historical and projected 200-WMA every 6 months.. and even this 6 month period, it is appearing that the upward trajectory is going to have to get upgraded from 16% to around 23%. which is going to end up changing the subsequent bottom (200WMA) prediction numbers and even my own ongoing consideration that my last updating of that chart in November 2023 was too conservative (so yeah, I am planning to update it every 6 months.. .even though maybe I should update it more often or even create another thread just for updating it more frequently.. especially since I refer to it so often.

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 01:40:22 AM

It is difficult to believe that Bitcoin will ever go to zero someday irrespective of the factors that may affect the price (regulation, adoption, technical development, and competition).

I would imagine that its odds for going to zero in a longer timeline would be greater than it is for within the next 10 years, but who knows? It could well be that bitcoin is with us forever, as amazing as even the idea of that seems to be and a lot of no coiners and precoiners cannot get their minds around the concept that bitcoin has a kind of existence that makes it stronger than gold.. . .(and in the ballpark of 1,000x more valuable than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years to get to that valuation).

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 01:40:22 AM

Prediction number 9 interests me the most. This is because the probability of hitting $1m and $2 is above the 12.5% margin. I support any investor with a whole of Bitcoin and will be much happier. My only consideration is that the price won't get stuck there.

My phrasing regarding the "stuck there" is mostly an attempt to say where we might be 10 years from now.. so "stuck there" might not have been a great descriptive choice... .. but maybe if I had just said, where is the BTC price going to be in 10 years and then assigned ranges, that might have been better, even though we know that the BTC price could go up down or whatever, and then where-ever we might end up in 10 years could be crazy, because there could be scenarios that bitcoin does something outrageous and moves through some pretty broad swaths of prices, even though there is a certain kind of Lindy effect that is going on too.. and also including that the more capital that comes in, then the more capital it takes to move the price.

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 01:40:22 AM

I don't know your reasons for thinking that the price would get stuck at certain price ranges, which is not typical market behavior for Bitcoin. The market tends to fluctuate so sustained plateaus are unlikely.

Probably a bad way of phrasing where we might be in 10 years, and surely I agree that BTC is both designed to pump forever, but also there are likely to be a lot of battles between here and $5 million or so then maybe between $5 million and $100 million per coin might be price arenas in which it becomes a lot more difficult to move the price as much.. so yeah, bitcoin is almost inevitably going to be volatile at least until we get to $5million, which could happen in a cycle or two or three or maybe it takes longer to get there.. and there are going to be both battles and also ongoing and continuous gravitation of monetary value into BTC. .. which is why its addressable market is close to $2.1 quadrillion in future value and around $1 quadrillion in current value.. but there is likely going to be more monetary value in the future as well that is brought by things like bitcoin that we don't necessarily know, yet.. and so $2.1. quadrillion is $1 per satoshi.. but yeah it could take 50 to 200 years to get there..

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 01:40:22 AM

Here's how confident I am predicting that the price of Bitcoin will be in the next 10 years.
Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 70%
High end: $1M - $2M - 30%

You are nutso, and you are bound to be wrong. Evenif you want to stick to those categories, you need to at least present all of the possibilities..

So maybe something like this would be more encapsulating of all possibilities from your perspective.. which again is nutso, as presented, even if one of those two possibilities might end up playing out..

Stablexcoin's prediction reframed into comprehensiveness

Below $500k - 1% or less

Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 69%

High end: $1M - $2M - 29%

Greater than $2 million - 1% or less

You can tweak these numbers if you like.. but at least the categories are not logically fallacious if you at least account for all of the possibilities, which your earlier example did not and your earlier example likely assigned too high of values to your two price range possibilities, even though surely you are free to believe whatever you like, even if you are living in a fantasy with your failure/refusal to acknowledge all possibilities. Cheesy

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 01:40:22 AM

Considering that the rate of inflation may be greater 10 years from now, I doubt that bitcoin would want to remain at the bottom when it's a hedge against inflation.

Whenever I make future predictions, I try to frame them in terms of either today's dollars or a reasable ongoing dollar debasement, even though we know that the dollar is not going to debase in a reasonable way.. .. sure we could make our predictions in terms of some other asset like gold or oil or big macs or something like that or even measuring from Hookers, lambos, blow and yachts, but at this time, we are still measuring these kinds of matters in terms of dollars, which the dollars ongoing debasement is perverting values a lot since it is likely going to enter into hyperinflation at some point, so we will end up having to measure in other ways when that ends up happening.. which may or may not end up happening soon within 1-30 years.. I have no clue about how long the dollar/fiat/debt-laden ponzi scheme can keep from totally crashing..

Quote from: laijsica on Today at 03:18:19 AM

Quote from: Negotiation on Today at 01:17:16 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:49:42 AM

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place, .. but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

While most people now make money for a living, there are few people who can earn some extra income beyond a job or fixed income. What you suggest is certainly valid, but most people by now think that cash is the only thing that matters to them. That's basically why they convert from all other currencies or from bitcoins to cash. Because of this they cannot implement any kind of plan, because the cash withdrawals are spent on life or livelihood.

For most this is the job, you work for your living but it may not be enough.And anything other than sufficient income is out of the question.In this case, small income people can move towards DCA strategies but on a small scale.Start with a small portion of your weekly or monthly income, such as $100. And if you start, you can save it without any hindrance in addition to household expenses. If you can keep DCAing for at least a year then you are successful.This is how people's success stories begin. And bitcoin DCAing a deposit is going to be great for you in future.

Yep.. Negotiation seems to be ongoingly blind and ongoingly fighting the idea of investing for the long term.. so he is going to have to have fun staying poor... because he is likely never going to get ahead by saving in fiat and failing/refusing to build a BTC stash (even if it is a small one), and surely there are going to be a lot of people coming to bitcoin quite late and wishing that they could have stacked some sats for less than $100k per BTC... and there are going to be satoshi millionaires and they are going to be quite proud of themselves, when right now we can get become a satoshi millionaire for right around $700.. what a deal!!! that some of us do not recognize and/or appreciate.

I remember less than a year ago, I helped my sister to become a satoshi multimillionaire and it was on several occasions that added up; to a few hundred dollars for sharing various costs and I paid her in BTC. and since then, she has been stacking her own sats... so I am not sure how many she has, but they surely have become more expensive over the last year to year and a half.