[edited out]
The truth is, when it comes to investment in bitcoin for long term HODL, there is basically no need for the predictions. What will you use the information of your prediction for? Your concern is how to add more bitcoin to your portfolio and not to fan that ego of being able to predict the price movement using whatever data, it is a total waste of time.
Following the conversation here, I have realized that the best way to go about this is a dual approach that comprise of predominantly DCA and
buying with lump sum when the need arises. I mean, just continue to buy using the DCA and when price goes down so much that you feel it is a nice point to get more bitcoin using lump sum, then that can be done while allowing the DCA method to still be running smoothly. With this approach you will not miss any opportunity of getting bitcoin and enjoying sharp rises in price should there be spike as a result of the coming halving and more in the future.
You seem to be conflating the ideas of lump sum and buying on dips. They are not the same thing.
You seem to actually be buying on dips, but you are calling it lump sum because it is a larger amount than your DCA amount.
A more clear understanding is having a lump sum or coming accross some extra money and then deciding if you are going to invest right now.. at current prices... If you decide to hold some or all of it for buying on dips then that is buying on dips, it no longer falls into a category of lump sum.
Sure, you can use whatever language you like and describe things however, you like, but if you are describing buying on dips as lump sum, then at that point you have to know or figure out what the fuck is lump sum, and it is not the same as buying on dips... so then what are you going to do in order to describe an actual lump sum situation?
Thanks for the clarification because I noticed that most people have been confusing buying at dip to be Lump Sum forgetting that they are two different things, however they feel that targeting there DCA accumulation during when the price is dip is considered to buying in Lump sum without knowing that they are actually buying at dip, and also one of the things that distinguishes between DCA and Lump sum is actually the amount because in DCA accumulation in other for people to keep there accumulation running they need to reduce the accumulating amounts in other to suit there financial state which could be accumulating a bit a bit regular in other not to run out of funds but in terms of Lump sum when there is an opportunity of price decrease we buy a larger amounts at once.