Quote from: Winterfrost on Today at 08:57:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:36:29 AM

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that's another factor most persons that sell for the purpose of buying back don't always put into consideration. What's the possibility that Bitcoin would ever get low to the amount you've sold your holding? The reality is that at some point, you will get to understand that it's not always about being patient enough till Bitcoin dips down so you can buy back. Their are past prices that Bitcoin will never go back to and those that sold at those price with the purpose of buying back might have probably realized that it's not realistic for them to buy back at the level of dip they had speculated while they sold part of thier holdings and would just have to buy at the current price with future bullish period in mind and never consider that they've loosed in their strategy to buying back at the DIP.
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That tends to be one of the additional problems when traders are failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately account for a certain kind of exponential upwards price pressure that exist in bitcoin, so they frequently will either consider the price dynamics of bitcoin as if it were a kind of mature asset or that bitcoin is correlated with mature assets or that everything that goes up must come down and other kinds of insufficient frameworks to consider BTC's price dynamics and potentials that end up costing them a lot of money for not sufficiently/adequately account for such, even when they might have had been successful in their execution of trades for many repeated times, it might ONLY take one or two wrong calls to either completely or mostly wipe them out of both their previous profits and then potentially sufficiently reduce their principle too.

Quote from: Winterfrost on Today at 08:57:17 AM

One of the main issues with selling to buying back in the future dips is that you don't know when to expect the dip and can't tell how long you have to wait before it dips below the amount you've sold part of your bitcoin and with a lots of uncertainties that's associated with it, selling to buy back might in most cases not end well.

It seems to be a very difficult way to attempt to make money (or to increase your BTC stash) for even the best of traders who likely have to know how to utilize either stop losses or other kinds of hedging mechanisms that allow them to be able to win no matter which direction the BTC price goes. An overwhelming number of normies who might get into trading BTC are not going to either be using hedging mechanisms or knowing how to employ them in productive ways.

Quote from: Winterfrost on Today at 08:57:17 AM

Earlier this year when the price was revolving around $40k, somany might have been between two opinions of either selling or to continue stacking and those that might have probably sold at those price with the intent of buying back are obviously in the position where they are damn uncertain whether or not Bitcoin will dips back to $40k.

So far, it hasn't worked out too well for those guys selling in the $40k range, and I really am having any doubts that the BTC price is going back to either below $40k or even mid-$40ks may well also be out of the likelihood of happening.. sure you never know, but who should want to be waiting for something like that to happen instead of just employing more sure kinds of bets that involve building/stacking sats.

Historically, there have been numerous similar kinds of examples of guys selling way too many coins too soon, and then either having to buy back higher at a later point or suffering from ongoing no-coiner bitterness, which surely should not be a place that any of us should want to be, especially when there are possibilities to get into and to build the right kind of mindset and perspective so that each of us might end up in the receiving side of the greatest wealth transfer in history rather than sitting on the sidelines and whining about it or in other ways having fun staying poor.

Quote from: Winterfrost on Today at 08:57:17 AM

And converting your Bitcoin to fiat comes with another issue you have to put into consideration like if your fiat that's now in a centralized system and subject to tax and other regulations would be in good shape for a longer period of time if you necessarily have to stay for months before you will be able to buy back. and believe me that it will get to a point when we will be certain that such a scenario may never happen which means that we can't buy back at the price we sold our Bitcoin.

I don't have any problem with having a decent amount of money in fiat - yet I still believe that I understand your point, and you seem to be just saying the same thing but putting it in a kind of opposite framework.

The main idea is that even if the fiat is more stable than bitcoin it is continuing to lose value.. but at the same time, it is not able to benefit from potential unexpected price rises of bitcoin which can end up coming at surprising times - but then also risks of having value in dollars might relate to temptations to spend it or maybe to get lazy in terms of not really keeping it sufficiently/adequately dedicated to buying back BTC..

but yeah, I am still not sure if any additional points are really being made in this part of the analysis that seems to still get back to each of us should be making sure that if we do sell any of our BTC, we are not selling large portions of it, and if we are in the process of accumulating BTC, it may well seem contradictory if we are ongoingly buying and then all of a sudden we sell and then we are trying to figure out when to buy since we already likely might realize that we don't even have enough, so why did we sell any of our BTC in the first place when we already know that we don't have enough of it.

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 12:37:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2024, 07:10:00 PM

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during the several Bitcoin halving bitcoin crash in price after the halving process so this gave the ideology that every bitcoin halving it is best to sell after the halving you buy and wait for the bullish.

In this thread we are not getting into any kinds of strategies that attempt to play short term BTC price dynamics and considering selling merely based on possibilities that BTC prices might go up at or around the halvening.

Sure, there may be some misleading ideas in the thread title in terms of framing a kind of advocacy for buying on the dips, yet the non-existence of selling within the title or even in the OP and the various discussions around the topic of this thread, many of the active participants of this thread acknowledge that the thrust of this thread is to be attempting to advocate for methods to prepare for long term building and holding of the BTC that we accumulate, and sure there still might be guys who are somewhat occupied and/or preoccupied with trying to get better deals on their BTC purchases so that they can lower their overall BTC cost basis, but still that is not necessarily for the purpose of fucking around with short-term selling of BTC, even if the BTC price goes up in terms of cycles that have been somewhat anticipatory in terms of patterns that reflect previous halvening periods.

Of course, the more coins that you accumulate, then the more flexibility that you end up having, yet still I also think that we have so many members participating in this thread who are still quite new to bitcoin, so it tends to show that there is quite a bit of appeal to getting set up with various good BTC accumulating practices, and perhaps when guys start to get to points in which they have already reached their accumulation goals, then they might need to take their discussions of what they are considering to other forum threads - not this one.

If you are thinking about or considering when you might want to shave off some BTC so that maybe you can buy back cheaper or that you believe that there might be some advantage in such tactics, even if you are admitting that you still have not accumulated enough BTC, then you surely seem to be deviating into off-topicness and into the kinds of topics that we are not really getting into, at least in terms of this thread.

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 12:37:35 PM

It may go in this terms or not.

For what purpose does it matter if the price might shoot up or not? You seem to be wanting to talk about selling rather than buying. Unless I misremember your situation, I thought that you were still in your earlier times of BTC accumulation so why would you give too many shits about price spikes unless you might be trying to figure out ways to buy around them and to buy on dips and things like that, but it can be quite difficult to attempt to be too strategic about various buying strategies when the BTC price is ongoingly going up and your cashflow is ONLY coming in so fast... .. so one of the better solutions seems to be just continuing to buy and not think about the price and/or your cost basis too much until maybe after a whole cycle of accumulating maybe you can start to figure out some ways to adjust your strategies in terms of anticipating BTC price waves, but at least after a whole cycle you would have had been in BTC long enough to start to potentially have some decent amount of BTC stash.. whether your BTC stash is going to be in profits at that time, might be another story.. and so each of us can ONLY attempt to do our best, including understanding and/or appreciating that overall bitcoin's price trajectory remains up.. so our accumulation strategies should attempt to account for that to the best of our abilities to do so.

Quote from: Stablexcoin on Today at 12:37:35 PM

But what amazes me is how people think that because of things that happened in the past, there is a guarantee this time around things we go the same way. However, i just wish they were happy at the end.

Well, we know that there is no guarantee, but we can still get a sense of overall BTC price direction which is inclined upwardly.

We can also likely get a sense that it is almost inevitable that BTC is going to continue to be extremely volatile, and we are not necessarily going to know the direction of the volatility even though in the longer run it is still likely going to continue to incline upwardly.

Quote from: Roseline492 on Today at 03:06:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 31, 2024, 07:10:00 PM

Quote from: adultcrypto on March 31, 2024, 11:20:56 AM

Quote from: Bravut on March 31, 2024, 10:31:50 AM

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The truth is, when it comes to investment in bitcoin for long term HODL, there is basically no need for the predictions. What will you use the information of your prediction for? Your concern is how to add more bitcoin to your portfolio and not to fan that ego of being able to predict the price movement using whatever data, it is a total waste of time.

Following the conversation here, I have realized that the best way to go about this is a dual approach that comprise of predominantly DCA and buying with lump sum when the need arises. I mean, just continue to buy using the DCA and when price goes down so much that you feel it is a nice point to get more bitcoin using lump sum, then that can be done while allowing the DCA method to still be running smoothly. With this approach you will not miss any opportunity of getting bitcoin and enjoying sharp rises in price should there be spike as a result of the coming halving and more in the future.

You seem to be conflating the ideas of lump sum and buying on dips. They are not the same thing.

You seem to actually be buying on dips, but you are calling it lump sum because it is a larger amount than your DCA amount.

A more clear understanding is having a lump sum or coming accross some extra money and then deciding if you are going to invest right now.. at current prices... If you decide to hold some or all of it for buying on dips then that is buying on dips, it no longer falls into a category of lump sum.

Sure, you can use whatever language you like and describe things however, you like, but if you are describing buying on dips as lump sum, then at that point you have to know or figure out what the fuck is lump sum, and it is not the same as buying on dips... so then what are you going to do in order to describe an actual lump sum situation?

Thanks for the clarification because I noticed that most people have been confusing buying at dip to be Lump Sum forgetting that they are two different things, however they feel that targeting there DCA accumulation during when the price is dip is considered to buying in Lump sum without knowing that they are actually buying at dip, and also one of the things that distinguishes between DCA and Lump sum is actually the amount because in DCA accumulation in other for people to keep there accumulation running they need to reduce the accumulating amounts in other to suit there financial state which could be accumulating a bit a bit regular in other not to run out of funds but in terms of Lump sum when there is an opportunity of price decrease we buy a larger amounts at once.

Your clarification Roseline492 does not seem to get to the essence of the distinction between lump sum and buying on dip amounts. You seem to be repeating the same error that I was criticizing adultcrypto for making. I am not sure what else I can say to clarify.

The mere fact that you are holding money aside to buy on the dip that happens to be a lot, that does not turn that "a lot" into a lump sum or to fit into the lump sum characterization.

The best examples seem to be something like this:

1) receiving an amount of money that you had not expected, and so any amount of that you decide to buy right now could be considered a lump sum and it does not depend on the amount. It depends on your decision to buy right now with it, even if you might choose to divide the amount received into all three categories, the amount you buy right now can be considered as a lump sum.

2) when you first start investing into BTC you might already have an amount of money that you dedicate to buying BTC (let's say $6k), but you still might divide that amount into three parts.. let's say $2k for each of the categories . .the amount that you invest right now would be a lump sum.

3) You have already been investing in BTC for a year or so, and you also have an investment portfolio that is of traditional assets like stocks, bonds and commodities. Let's say your total non-BTC investment portfolio is $50k, and your BTC portfolio is around $5k, and maybe you start to believe that you had been investing into BTC too whimpily over the previous year, so you become concerned that you might not have enough invested into BTC and so you want to reallocate some of your non-BTC portfolio into BTC, and after carrying out some calculations and assessing the various things that you have in your non-BTC portfolio, you recognize that you could probably sell around $12k of some of the holdings without suffering any negative tax consequences since they are about the same value as what you had invested, so therefore, you decide to reallocate $12k into BTC, so that $12k could be considered a lump sum into BTC if you invest right away with it once you receive it, and you don't even have to invest all of it into BTC right away. You could divide that $12k into 3 parts (which would be DCA, lump sum and buying on dips), and the part that you invest right away into BTC would be considered a lump sum.