Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 12:42:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 06, 2024, 09:31:00 PM

I already said that I likely would not be willing to enter into any bet that would get even close to the 90/10 proclamation that I had made.. but yeah, there could be ways to frame a bet in terms of an amount that each side would end up having to pay that would be an attempt to reflect the odds.. and from my own perspective, in order to make a point about the claims being made, I doubt that there would be any need to create bets that would require the losing side to pay any more than 0.002 BTC or perhaps 0.003 BTC.. yet of course, folks are able to enter into whatever bet that they like in terms of amounts.. but I doubt that I am going to play any of the larger amount bets in order to make whatever point(s) that I might be wanting to make through any possible agreed-to bet. Also, there may need to be some escrow involved depending upon how any such bet might be framed.. .. but like for example, even with a bet that is attempting to describe 10/1 odds, for one side might be as high as 0.003 BTC, and then the other side might end up being 0.0003 BTC.. and such low amounts, might end up having to be locked into being a lightning network bet rather than locking into on-chain transactions.. unless we agree to onchain transactions that might end up having some high fee risks.. .based on some of the latest happenings (meaning high fees) with onchain fees.

Surely the odds seem to be against, you even with a changing of the odds, yet surely you are seeming to be a bit disingenuine by moving the odds further away from the direction that I said that I would be willing to bet, even if I were to be wiling to enter into a bet.. in other words, I don't know why you need to express desires to be greedy rather than actually accounting for my already assertion that I may well not even be willing to give 10/1 odds. .. actually, I said that I would not be willing to enter any such bet, which surely showing that I would not get any surplus value out of such a bet, so why would I be willing to enter any bet that is at the very edge of my proclamation, which it seems that I already described the existence of that kind of a dynamic with my own thinking about what I had already proposed to be odds for the number of days in which November 9, 2021 could be removed from the top 100 list.

I'm just pointing out the absurdity of your probabilities estimation, given that even in the post you made it you moved away from standing behind it.

I am confused about the absurdity that you are supposedly pointing out, especially since it seems that you are assigning even lower odds to $67,483 being breached than me.. so initially I thought that you were proclaiming that my odds were too high, but instead you are seem to be assigning even greater odds that it will end up being breached... and yeah maybe we are misunderstanding each other since, I was saying 9/10 chances that it is breached. . and then I moved off of that in the direction of giving lesser odds.. and probably currently after another day passage of time, I may well be in the ballpark of 75-ish% odds that it is breached, so the odds are getting to be less with BTC's price moving up and our putting some potential distance between current weighted traded daily prices and the $67,483 target price that we are expecting to move off the top 100 list at some point.. perhaps best case scenario in 80-81 days... today seems to be another feather in the cap for a supra $67,483 outcome.

Nearly two days have passed since I made the initial post assigning 90/10, and now that a couple of days has passed and the price has continued to move up, the odds have moved in my own head too, including that right now they are more likely getting into the ballpark of 75% rather than 90%, and surely if any of us would lock ourselves into a bet in regards to a moving target, then we may well have to take the changing dynamics into account and including if the situation might be solid enough in order to lock in the level of probabilities assigned at the time of any bet that might end up being entered into.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 12:42:28 PM

If you think not in terms of "probabilities" but in terms of "betting odds" (recognising that although these are technically the same they are emotionally different) - what odds would you need to be getting to be willing to back the underdog like this?

I am not sure why you feel some need to lecture about differing ways to assign probabilities, since I already mentioned that there were likely different types of betters and potentially some subjective aspects, including but not limited to risk tolerance or maybe other subjective and/or emotional quirks, and surely individuals are going to weigh factors differently, which allows for any bet to be possible in the first place, beyond mere emotions, but instead differences of opinion based on knowledge and belief about facts. Sometimes there is asymmetric information and other times there is asymmetric knowledge (or even logic) and other times there is luck and whimsicalness, at least in terms of what ends up actually playing out after a bet might be entered into.

Some types of bets have more whimsicalness and various factors and perhaps even luck than others, which seems to be part of the reason that some kinds of games are more on the side of pure chance (luck) and others have some skill components, which likely mean that some folks are more skillful than others in terms of potentially achieving consistent favorable outcomes, which also might not even be attributed to their actual skills rather than to luck, even though they might proclaim that they are being skillful, so it is not always known with certainty about what might have cause the outcome.. although surely it is going to be easier to assign some potential ideas and theories regarding causal relations after something had already occurred versus the more challenging aspects to attempt to both predict outcome based on conjectures regarding what might contribute towards the predicted outcome happening.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 12:42:28 PM

Remember, to win the bet you would need to see the next 81 consecutive days ABOVE $67,483, and just one day below will lose the bet. Given that in the six days of this month alone there have already been 3 days below the target you'd really need some pretty extraordinary odds to take it on - hence my 1000:1 suggestion.

Maybe you are misunderstanding me, and you conclude that I was assigning 90% odds that $67,483 would never be breached, and I was doing the exact opposite, which was 10% odds, and now I am probably in the 25% odds-ish.. .. anyhow this whole hoop-a-la might all be about some various misunderstandings.. perhaps?

Maybe I am just confused about what you are saying.. So for example, if you are placing higher odds than me, so maybe you should be willing to take the side of the bet that I was planning to take.. with the better odds that I had assigned..... give me 999:1 odds and I will take the bet saying that we will never cross below $67,483 again. .especially since you believe the odds to be 99.9%.. you have a lot of confidence. Way more than me, so you should be more than willing to give me some other kinds of odds that I might consider to be favorable and each of us considers that we have surplus on each end.., and let's see who is being ridiculous (absurd) and/or whether either of us would be willing to stand behind some aspect of the numbers that we are proclaiming... or at least something close to it..

And, yeah, sure, based on subsequent BTC price movements, I am now saying that in the last couple of days, I believe the odds have turned to something closer to 75/25 rather than 90/10, so I am actually suggesting ONLY about 25% odds that we don't go below $67,483 in the next 81 days... and you are saying that the odds are closer to 99.9% or some variation of that that we do go below $67,483 in the next 81 days, and you seem to be taking a more extreme position than me, which should cause your position to become bettable if you would be wiling to stand behind some variation of what you are saying.. especially since we differ so much... and at first I was thinking that you were saying that my odds were too low, and now you are saying that my odds are too high, and I just made them higher... which causes me to question either whether we are actually understanding each other or what might be the terms of any bet that we might enter into, if we were to work towards such a thing.. especially since many times a motivation for a bet may well end up being that each of the sides considers the other side to be absurd (and/or ridiculous) in their perspective, which seems that we are getting into those kinds of territories.

So, if we were to make any bet, then it would need to account for if we can agree to balancing out the surplus on the sides of the bet, since I would not necessarily want to enter into a bet in the event that I perceived that there was no surplus value and/or cushion on my side, but yeah sometimes when push comes to shove, there may well be needs to figure out how much any guy stands behind his numbers, and right from the start, I had said that I likely would not be willing to stand by the 90/10 that I had proclaimed on at the time that the price had barely gotten above $67,483, and whether you thought that I was ONLY assigning 10% odds then maybe there was confusion, since I was assigning 90% odds, which I no longer stand behind since I currently believe it be closer to 75% which surely had created dynamics that it would have had been less certain that the price would be able to continue to stay above it.. especially for then another 82 days and now another 81 days and even today seems to also be in the can, so in the next 7 hours or so, we will likely end up with only 80 days left, since the price would have to correct quite a bit in the next 7 hours to drag today's daily average below $67,483... For today, we seem pretty likely to be back in the top 10 and also decently good chances of the top 7 or 8 for today.. Let's see how the remaining 7-ish hours play out.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 12:42:28 PM

I suspect even 1,000:1 is in no way near what a bookmaker would actually be pricing that at ... in fact the more I think about it the more I believe that only a completely irredeemable gambler would take it on ... Wink

Yeah, but aren't those the odds that you are assigning? I would be willing to give you even lower (better) odds, if you want to take 99/1 odds, I may well be willing to enter into the 1% side of the bet, especially since you believe the 1% side of the bet is ONLY really supposed to be 0.1%.. and that way each of us ends up getting surplus value.. We would just have to formulate the bet so neither side is losing more than an amount that they are willing to put up and lose.

The way you framed it the first time, I thought that I would have had been the one putting up the 1 BTC and you would only have to put up 0.001 BTC, so surely that would have had been a no go on my end, but if you are the one putting up the 1 BTC, then no problema.. we can modify that down to 0.01 BTC, since I am giving you better odds than what you really believe the odds to be... So I would put up 0.001BTC and you would put up 0.01 BTC, yet if I were giving you 99% odds then that means that I would only be putting up 0.0001 BTC, and that does not seem fair, so I cannot see that kind of a bet working out.. Initially I said that the odds were 90% that it would end up going below $67,483, and now I am saying around 75% that it would.. and yeah, maybe I am waffling around too much, and since you are proposing that either my 90% or my 75% are too conservative (but that seems to be potentially based on misunderstandings between us), yet we might be able to figure out some reasonable bettable number between the 90% that I first claimed and the 99.9% that you seem to be claiming... in other words, to the extent that we even understand each other at all, I consider your perspective to be too bearish.. Perhaps, from my perspective, I consider that you don't understand and/or appreciate the power of dee cornz.

Quote from: DirtyKeyboard on Today at 01:07:55 AM

.......

Moving Average VWAP, date listed is final day in span           
|  7 Day MA             30 Day MA           200 Day MA           100 Week MA            200 Week MA
|  #     7 DMA  USD/BTC|  #     30 DMA USD/BTC| #     200 DMA USD/BTC| #     100 WMA USD/BTC|  #    200 WMA USD/BTC|
|  1  2024-03-15  70391|  1  2024-04-06  68203| 1   2022-02-20  49377| 1   2022-11-08  38860|  1  2024-04-06  32926|
|  2  2024-03-14  70384|  2  2024-04-05  68167| 2   2022-02-19  49376| 2   2022-11-07  38860|  2  2024-04-05  32884|
|  3  2024-03-16  70236|  3  2024-04-04  68128| 3   2022-02-21  49370| 3   2022-11-09  38859|  3  2024-04-04  32842|
|  4  2024-04-01  70075|  4  2024-04-03  68046| 4   2022-02-18  49367| 4   2022-11-06  38857|  4  2024-04-03  32801|
|  5  2024-03-31  70035|  5  2024-04-02  68044| 5   2022-02-17  49364| 5   2022-11-10  38857|  5  2024-04-02  32761|
.....

Regarding your addition of the 100-WMA and the 200-WMA, those are fairly interesting listings.

We can see from the 200-WMA that towards the bottom of the chart 100-days ago or so, the 200-WMA was moving up only around $22 per day, and now in recent times, it is moving up $42 per day. So far always up, it is just a matter of how much.

Regarding the 100-WMA, it is interesting how tight that range is in the $38ks, and currently the 100-WMA is barely above $30k.. so it may well take a bit of time before the 100-WMA is back on the top 100 table... which of course the 100-WMA is in the ballpark of the average BTC price for the past 2 years and the 200-WMA is in the ballpark of the average BTC price for the past 4 years... so yeah, the 100-WMA still trying to catch up to the 200-WMA, but also trying to catch up to past versions of itself.. which surely goes to show that the overall average trading price of 2021 is skewing its past performance towards the upside, and so the consistency and ongoingness of our current top is not spread out enough over the past two years to cause our current 100-WMA numbers to get close to being back on the top 100 chart.. .. so yeah, interesting that it may well take another 3-6 months for the 100-WMA to resume appearing on the top 100 chart, and that is presuming that BTC prices continue to stay high enough to drag it back into the $38ks..

At least the 200-Day seems to be getting close to being back on the chart, which seems to be right below $45k right now.

Quote from: DirtyKeyboard on Today at 01:07:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:47:56 AM

[edited out]

Whoaza!!!!! is right. You have quite the way with words. Cheesy

Maybe a bit too much of exaggeration from time to time, even though I thought that my point about "Houston we have a problem" was the more discombobulating one... but you fixed it.. so all is well.. plus your bonuses of the 100-WMA and the 200-WMA.. You seem to be creating a lot of work for yourself.. .... but if you are not complaining, then I doubt that anything is hurt by at least showing some of the kinds of information that can be presented.. .. even though probably many of us (if not most, if not all) are primarily concerned with the USD/BTC pair.. with some interests in some of the from time to time comparisons... but yeah, having the data coming out could potentially contribute to our being more aware or maybe noticing some kind of a pattern that we had not previously seen.