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Looking on matches left, Arsenal has some difficult matches against Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United with most of left team opponent want to defend their position at Champion League spot place for Spurs and Manchester United want to reach UEFA Europe League ticket next season by finish on 5th or 6th standings position.
Let's not forget Aston Villa, who are currently placed 5th in the table with the same points as the Tottenham. Although experts don't give Villa much chances of winning (only 9%) it's still potentially a tough game for Arsenal.
I think Arsenal is almost guaranteed to lose some points in one of those 4 matches mentioned.
If I had to bet, I'd put my money on My City to win the ECL, as they have the easiest games left compared to Liverpool and Arsenal.
A careful look at the remaining fixtures of the top three teams in the English Premier League table will reveal that Mikel Arteta's Arsenal will face stronger opponents than Liverpool and Manchester City will do but that I don't think should make us to write Arsenal off. Arsenal have shown that they're more determined to win the English Premier League title this season than they've ever been since 2004 that they last won the title after going the whole season without conceding a defeat. Arsenal will play Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and even Aston Villa that are currently occupying the fourth position of the league table and those games will pose great threat to their title ambition but I still expect Arsenal to get results that'll still keep them in good position to win the English Premier League title after those fixtures are played.