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Looking on matches left, Arsenal has some difficult matches against Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United with most of left team opponent want to defend their position at Champion League spot place for Spurs and Manchester United want to reach UEFA Europe League ticket next season by finish on 5th or 6th standings position.
Let's not forget Aston Villa, who are currently placed 5th in the table with the same points as the Tottenham. Although experts don't give Villa much chances of winning (only 9%) it's still potentially a tough game for Arsenal.
I think Arsenal is almost guaranteed to lose some points in one of those 4 matches mentioned.
If I had to bet, I'd put my money on My City to win the ECL, as they have the easiest games left compared to Liverpool and Arsenal.
Still i haven't give up for Aston Villa for getting ticket to the Champions league zone despite their are one match ahead of Tottenham Hotspur and already they are having the same points, Tottenham still have tough matches to play which i don't have hope of winning all the tough matches because those teams are currently the toughest teams that are competing for the Premier league title, and are currently struggling to get more points to increase their chances of winning the league. Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester city are the three teams for the title, arsenal and Liverpool are having the same point, the only thing that makes arsenal to take a lead is because of the goal difference, and Manchester city are behind with just a point, this is cleared that the winner will comes out of this team but no one can predict it because of their consistency.