Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 05:12:59 AM

Quote from: tertius993 on April 08, 2024, 02:12:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 07, 2024, 04:50:05 PM

[edited out]

OK, so are you suggesting 10:1 (i.e. 0.01 to 0.001 BTC) or 4:1 (0.01 to 0.0025 BTC)?

As per my comments above and previously, I'm not sure this is a sensible bet on any terms, but maybe we can agree something.

I am not even sure if we understand each other enough to make a bet.. since I said that I would not be wanting to make any bet that merely reflects what I believe the odds to be in the event that someone else is proclaiming odds that I consider to be way outrageous as compared to my odds, so I would want to get surplus out of that.. so that is why I suggested the possibility of entering into a 100:1 bet (or was it 99 to 1, since you were proclaiming 1000:1 or 999:1... .. yet originally I said that I thought that it was 10:1 and now I am more in the ballpark of thinking that the odds are getting to be 4:1, but why would I enter a bet in which you got all the surplus especially since you are thinking the odds are 999 to 1?.. .. but yeah, if I say 99:1 and you say that all the surplus is on my end and I need to go back to 10:1.. since I would still be getting surplus since I really believe the odds to be closer to 4:1..

Anyhow, I would think that each of us would want to have surplus on each of our ends, since you would be more hesitant to enter into a bet that is closer to your true beliefs of 999 to 1, just like I am reluctant to enter into a bet that is closer to my current beliefs of 4:1.. .. which maybe in some sense I am admitting that they might be a bit higher than what I am tentatively thinking right now... . but yeah, we still may well have to describe it out or figure out numbers if we really were going to enter into a bet.. but you did move away from my real offer of 99:1 and suggest the other two possibilities of 10:1 or 4:1 which surely seems like you are wanting to suck all of the surplus value on my end, which is causing it to be unbettable.. .. so I had ONLY proposed possibly considering 99:1.. while at the same time, there could be some [potential to negotiate another set of odds, but I had not proposed those lower odds (or is it higher odds that you are wanting to gravitate towards so that you seem to want to get more surplus value out of the situation.

Well, exactly, everyone taking on a bet wants it to be on the most favourable terms possible.

I don't know. We talked about personality types, so some folks are going to be more willing to enter into a bet than others, but there should be a certain dynamic of wanting some kind of a surplus, especially if you can negotiate the terms of the bet, so I don't necessarily need to get the most surplus. I only need to get enough that is comfortable, and if some one makes a statement with a lot of conviction, then it seems more likely that the bet could be entered into closer to the terms of the person with the stronger conviction. Whether that is taking advantage of a person or not, if someone makes a statement with quite a bit of conviction, then it would seem reasonable to put them to their test in terms of if they would be willing to bet on that statement or some close approximation of that statement that might not be as extreme but still seems extreme.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

However, as I said before I don't think this is a bet that anyone with any sense would be taking on.

It seems bettable. I would just be a matter of agreeing upon the terms.... and the most that I have offered to agree to so far is 99 to 1. I am not agreeing to bet on 10 to 1 or 4 to 1, even though they might be coming upon the limits of my own potential conviction on the idea and probably the current price moves causes wavering between what I consider the matter to be 4 to 1 or 10 to 1 or some where in the middle... 6 to 1, perhaps... .. but I never said I would be willing to bet on 10 to 1 or less, and even though I said that I would probably be willing to bet on 99 to 1, there might be some number between 99 to 1 and 10 to 1 that I might be willing to bet upon.. even if it were merely to be for funzies.. I would think that it would be best to enter into something that is somewhat interesting and I perceive to be somewhat favorable to me, even though I would not need to perceive it as "most favorable" since it would be a lot more difficult to find some one willing to take the other side of the bet.. even though.. maybe I don't even really want to enter into a bet in the first place - even though I am more than willing to give my back of the napkin (or armchair) estimation of odds... and yeah, maybe if push comes to shove, the napkin/armchair estimations do not matter as much as the ones in which the are backed up with a bet.. .. although the mere fact that I am not going to bet on my "true" estimations does not mean that I am lying about my estimations, it seems to just come down to no motivation to enter into any actual bet unless there were potential surplus value involved.. as I already mentioned... especially since my conviction is not very strong.. .but if I am entering into a bet then my conviction would be increasing as I perceive the odds to become more in my favor to the extent that it is becoming strong enough to enter into such bet because I am starting to feel that it is lopsided.

Some of the behaviors of betting parallel any human buying and selling behaviors, and so you are not going to buy something unless you believe that you get some surplus value out of it, and the seller is not going to sell it unless s/he believes that there is surplus value. If both sides do not perceive surplus value, then no transaction takes place.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

On the underdog side the stake is low and the reward is high but the risk of losing is even higher; conversely on the favourite side the probability of winning is good, but the stake is high and the reward is small.

You are describing it in a weird way, and the amount of the bet would be an attempt to reflect the odds, so I doubt that it matters if it is lopsided in the way it is structured because the lopsidedness is merely reflecting the odds.

If both of us believe the odds are greater than 50/50 that something is going to happen, then the ONLY way it becomes bettable would be try to bet between our difference, and since I don't claim to be any kind of bet structuring expert, it seems the easier way to capture the actual difference of opinion is by attempting to figure out bettable odds... odds that each side would be willing to take... so yeah, we have to be willing to put the amount at risk since we believe that the odds are in our favor to win the bet so we believe that we ultimately have decently good odds of winning the bet, and so it was worth it to risk the amount that was risked, and so the person who puts up less of a bet considers it better to enter the bet than not since the amount of the pay out might be 99x the amount that is put at stake so that if the bet were entered into 100 times, he thinks that he is going to win way more than 1 time.. he might even think that if the bet were entered into 100x he might be able to win 5 or more times (maybe he even believes that he would win around 10 times) , so he believes that the bet is rationale and/or framed in his favor since he is only putting up 1/100th of the amount.

On the other hand the guy who believes that the odds are less than 1/1000, then he also considers the bet to be good since it is almost like free money since he considers that there is less than 1 time out of 1,000 that he would not end up winning the bet. I am not sure what makes it so crazy that no one would enter into such bets if that is what they actually believe and they are willing to stand behind it.. It may just be a matter of the amount that ends up getting bet. .. I mean would you really want to put a whole BTC at risk so that you might be able to win .01 BTC? I did not even say that I would bet that amount, but I might allow you to put up 0.01 BTC if you are wanting to try to win 0.0001 BTC.. I think that would be 100 to 1 odds..

I think when push comes to shove, you would not even be willing to stand behind your own probabilities of 1000 to 1, and so that is why I offered you 100 to 1 terms. I see no reason why you would not stand behind those terms unless you think that you would be able to negotiate more favorable terms to give you more cushion.. more surplus.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

In truth I am less interested in a bet and much more interested in my opening question - what are your workings - i.e. how are you coming to your estimates? And are you still thinking that staying above $67,483 is a 1 in 4 chance or are you re-thinking after the fall today?

Yeah sure.. somewhere between 1/4 and 1/10, and it may well be a moving target, and maybe I got too anxious about 1/4 and I really meant 1/5, and so why does it matter since I am just giving ballpark ideas and I am not really betting on them, and if there were a way for me to bet on it, then surely I could do that with my BTC buy and/or sell orders, but I almost never change any of my buy sell orders.. they are already set in some what emotionally neutral ways. If the BTC price goes down I buy and if it goes up then I sell and I have been doing that since mid 2015.. Before mid-2015, I only had buy orders I never would sell, since mid-2015, I added in sell orders, and I have been doing it ever since... and I try to set them in emotionally neutral ways.. right now my buy orders go down to right above $20k, but really I don't expect the BTC price to drop below the 200-WMA until after 2025, and the 200-WMA is currently just over $33k, and it historically it has been going up about 20% to 200% per year.. and right now it seems to be going up at around a rate of around 46% per year, yet since that it s a bit of a moving target we cannot really completely count on it.. even though I expect that BTC spot prices will not go below it in the next 18 months or so.. . even though surely I could be wrong, but I would be willing to bet on some variation of that prediction in a 50/50 way.. just for funzies.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

For what its worth my view is that:
1. we've only been above 67.4k for a few days;

Fair enough... and the total trade weighted volume is likely going to be in the mid-to-upper $69ks for today, since we ONLY have a little less than 3 hours remaining for the day to close.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

2. even now we are barely sitting above that level;

Barely? we are going to close more than $2k above.. l.. so yeah maybe.. and then maybe tomorrow might be even closer.. so yeah, we are potentially in risky territories.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

3. in the last month we've seen 6 days with >$2,500 falls

Of course the BTC price goes up and down all the time, and surely $2,500 does not mean as much in these upper $60k prices as it did when we were in the $6k prices.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

4. the halving is coming and we usually see a strong dip after the halving;

It could go up before it goes down too..

I don't give too many shits if the BTC price goes down or dips, yet an overwhelming number of people likely need to be preparing themselves for UP rather than down, and sure, tertius993, you may well have the luxury of accumulating enough or more than enough BTC, since you have been registered on the forum longe than me.. but if you have always been waiting for down before UP, then maybe you don't have the luxury of even having enough BTC if you are always considering that the BTC price may go down, so you are constantly failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately prepare yourself for up... so if we look at the BIGGER picture, who gives any shits if the BTC price might correct or not or that we might even fall off of the top 100 days chart. The main question might be whether each of us are sufficiently/adequately prepared for up rather than being overly focused on downity that might not happen.. who gives any shits.. the point is to prepare yourself for up, even if there is quibbling about your thoughts that the odds for down are greater than what I might happen to consider them to be.. .and even if they go down, who cares? Just buy more or HODL through it.. because the main thing seems to be having enough or more than enough BTC, and hopefully you are not overly lacking in that more important direction (and in regards to those more important questions).

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

5. it'll take nearly 80 straight days (I assume 79 now) to clear $67,483 off the top 100 days (and of course just one day will blow it);

That is right. The odds might be higher than what I proclaimed them to be, but it still seems like a big so what unless maybe we might want to enter into a bet and if I am still willing to go ahead with 99 to 1 odds or some variation of that.. since I did not propose going into a bet for what I had considered to be more floating and off-the-cuff ideas of odds.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

So all in my assessment is the chances are very high that we'll dip below $67,483 sometime in the next 79 days.

Yes. I assess the same and you assess higher odds than me. We already concluded that.

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 04:36:19 PM

I'd be interested to hear why your assessment is different.

Already sufficiently explained to the extent that any of the nuances even matter in the whole scheme of things.. The ONLY time that the assignment of odds might matter would be if there might be some action that is being considered around the assignment of such odds... so right now I am floating between 1/4 and 1/10 and you are supposedly higher than 1/1,000 even though you are unwilling to enter a 1/100 bet.. so it probably shows that you are not as convicted as you are making it out that you are... to the extent that any of it even matters...especially if neither of us is planning to act upon it.. at least we have not figured out some kind of an agreeable action point, yet.