Of course, on my end the amount of the bet is not very much (since it is being framed in terms of a 100 to 1 chances.. so the amount is attempting to reflect that, yet on your end, the amount becomes quite significant, especially in 75-ish days the BTC price could end up in over $100k and your 0.01 BTC amounts to more than $1k dollars.. while currently mine is around $7 and if the BTC price goes down in such a way that I would end up losing the bet, then presumptively it would be less than $7 when I were to pay the bet. .. so lopsided bets seem to have more justification for escrow.. yet I don't really have any reason to believe that you are not good for it.. since the bet does not really seem that complicated.
As we already mentioned, the odds are surely more likely that I am going to lose, but the amount on each side justifies going into the bet at 99 to 1 odds... and the main point of the bet is that I would be betting that the BTC trade weighted prices through the system of positing of DirtyKeyboard is not going to end up going below
2021-11-09 67482.752117444
prior to that November 9, 2021 date getting pushed off the table.. and yeah, by today there are ONLY 75 days remaining that the trade-weighed price would need to stay above 67482.752117444 in order for November 9, 2021 to get knocked off the top 100 table.
As far as the payment of the beneficiary of the bet in the event that I lose (which is the most likely outcome), all you have to do tertius993 is give me a wallet address and I will pay it whether it is an onchain address or a lighting address, yet I am not going to feel as comfortable paying such a low amount (of 0.0001 BTC) to a regular onchain bitcoin address if there remains such uncertainties with fees.... or if it is going to someone who had not agreed to take it, then they might consider such a low payment amount as a kind of spam (or a dust attack) unless it is getting sent to some kind of a wallet that the recipient would be sure to be able to manage such small amount in the future. An exchange address would actually work o.k. for that kind of a purpose, yet I am not sure if there might be some exchanges that don't want to receive dust amounts.. .. but I don't know about any of them providing such minimums.. . .even though I have seen some that have trade minimums (around $5-ish, and those kinds of minimums could change with times too)..
I can certainly see your preference for escrow, except that the most likely outcome is:
a. I sent to the escrow (incurring transaction fees)
b. the escrow charges a fee (%age I assume)
c. it ends up coming back to me (incurring more transaction fees)
Whereas if we do without escrow the only fees are for the transaction from me to you.
I don't mind paying the fees for step a. (indeed I expect to) but I don't particularly want to pay the fees for steps b. and c.!
Also agree if you end up paying me (or whoever we determine should receive it), then a lightning address would be superior.
So if you are happy to cover the fees for steps b. and c. then no issue.
NB still away with limited access.