We use odds of 100:1, outline terms as follows:
1. tertius993 will wager 0.01BTC to be paid to JayJuanGee if tertius993 loses
2. JayJuanGee will wager 0.0001BTC to be paid to Dirtykeyboard* if JayJuanGee loses
3. tertius993 will win if on at least one day in the next 78 days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) is less than $67,483.
4. JayJuanGee will win if for the next 80 consecutive days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) will not be less than $67,483
5. If Dirtykeyboard stops updating the thread before the 78 days are up, the bet will be void.
6. If the lowest volume weighted average USD price reported in the next 78 days is EXACTLY $67,483 the bet will be void.
7. The "next 78 days" means the period from today up to and including 27 June 2024.
* as a thank you for the updates to the thread
I think I have calculated the number of days correctly but happy to be corrected on that.
Your framing of such a proposed bet is not very annoying.. and I am thinking that right now it is 76 days remaining, since the number of days has to do with whether the tradeweighted price would fall of the 100 day chart without having any one day below that price.
In regards to your number 6, it would almost be impossible for there to be a tie if we were to use the actual digits of the underlying data,.. since DirtyKeyboard has already shown us that the data does down to around 10 digits or
[edited out]
2021-11-09 67482.752117444
2024-04-04 67481.7742406439
Maybe I should upload the raw data to a linked public cloud drive?
In that case we can strike no. 6.
And yes, we need to get the number of days exactly right - indeed I notice a typo in my suggested terms that needs fixing, no 4. said 80 instead of 78.
If you agree copy the terms into a new post with just the terms and say you agree, I will then quote and agree your post.
If you want to change anything propose your amendments and we can take it from there.
I will have to think about if I want to agree or propose any changes, but what you are describing seems to be somewhat reasonable and even bettable in the 100 to 1 sentiment... .though I might want a escrow. and DirtyKeyboard might not appreciate receiving dust (of 0.0001 BTC), if I were to lose the bet.
Yep, fair point, in fact Dirtykeyboard would need to agree in any event. If he doesn't want it we should agree a suitable destination for the 0.0001 if it becomes due, maybe ChartBuddy?
I see no particular need for escrow, but have no issue if you want to find someone.
Also note I'm away for a few days and probably won't have good online access now until Sunday/Monday.
Of course, on my end the amount of the bet is not very much (since it is being framed in terms of a 100 to 1 chances.. so the amount is attempting to reflect that, yet on your end, the amount becomes quite significant, especially in 75-ish days the BTC price could end up in over $100k and your 0.01 BTC amounts to more than $1k dollars.. while currently mine is around $7 and if the BTC price goes down in such a way that I would end up losing the bet, then presumptively it would be less than $7 when I were to pay the bet. .. so lopsided bets seem to have more justification for escrow.. yet I don't really have any reason to believe that you are not good for it.. since the bet does not really seem that complicated.
As we already mentioned, the odds are surely more likely that I am going to lose, but the amount on each side justifies going into the bet at 99 to 1 odds... and the main point of the bet is that I would be betting that the BTC trade weighted prices through the system of positing of DirtyKeyboard is not going to end up going below
2021-11-09 67482.752117444
prior to that November 9, 2021 date getting pushed off the table.. and yeah, by today there are ONLY 75 days remaining that the trade-weighed price would need to stay above 67482.752117444 in order for November 9, 2021 to get knocked off the top 100 table.
As far as the payment of the beneficiary of the bet in the event that I lose (which is the most likely outcome), all you have to do tertius993 is give me a wallet address and I will pay it whether it is an onchain address or a lighting address, yet I am not going to feel as comfortable paying such a low amount (of 0.0001 BTC) to a regular onchain bitcoin address if there remains such uncertainties with fees.... or if it is going to someone who had not agreed to take it, then they might consider such a low payment amount as a kind of spam (or a dust attack) unless it is getting sent to some kind of a wallet that the recipient would be sure to be able to manage such small amount in the future. An exchange address would actually work o.k. for that kind of a purpose, yet I am not sure if there might be some exchanges that don't want to receive dust amounts.. .. but I don't know about any of them providing such minimums.. . .even though I have seen some that have trade minimums (around $5-ish, and those kinds of minimums could change with times too)..