Quote from: swogerino on April 27, 2024, 12:10:52 PM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 02:59:37 PM

I have long wanted to discuss the following topic with users and participants in gambling discussions. Do you think Nassim Teleb's philosophy can be of any use in gambling? His various ideas and theories? Let me just list some of his ideas and you can comment on how, if any, benefits can be gained from this:
1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.
2. Ideas from the book “Black Swan”. Strategies based on anticipation of the Black Swan.
3. Ideas from the book “Antifragile.” By the way, the concept of “barbell” is also from this book. Keep 90% of the bank in conservative assets and 10% in high-risk assets.
4. Ideas from the book “Skin in the Game”.
If you think any of these ideas can be applied to gambling, explain why you think so and how specifically it can be applied. If you believe that Nassim Taleb's ideas only apply to options trading and not to gambling, tell us more about your position.

I think the best book from him is the first one "Fooled by Randomness" as I am one of those crazy persons who still believe in a pattern in a game that is full of random outcomes like a slot machine.I have many years in gambling and still the slots providers manage to deceive me with their reels making me thinking that maybe I found a pattern.Not longer than sometime ago I was playing every day the Rabbit Garden slot from Pragmatic Play and I noticed that when only buying the bonus game,if you were never able to get past the first level in three consecutive buy bonus then most likely the fourth game was a guaranteed win in the sense to be more than x100 which was the cost of buy bonus,I happen to hit it several times and it looks like this is a pattern,I know though that when I will try again it won't work,I was fooled by randomness,a victim of the first book Grin

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Yes, it's a funny story. In general, you raised an interesting question. I think that absolute randomness probably does not exist. We simply consider as an accident what we cannot analyze. And here there is probably the exact opposite thing, which even Taleb did not want to analyze. Let’s call it “Fooled by a Pattern.” Do you know that many patterns look like accidents? For example, some astrological cycles. Or, for example, people do not believe in technical analysis and believe that there is a random walk in prices in the market. To find a pattern in this chaos requires a lot of effort.