Quote from: pooya87 on Today at 02:08:38 PM

Quote from: Ozero on March 29, 2024, 07:30:48 PM

Moreover, Russia no longer dominates the Black Sea.

Russia will not be able to hold the south of Ukraine for long.

Let me clarify two things about my statement.
My analysis about the "dominance in the Black Sea" was based on the current situation (ie. those regions are already under Russian control) not what may or may not change in the future. If that situation changes, obviously the dominance I talked about become void.

Also the "dominance" I was talking about is for after the war ends not during it.
Otherwise these "big" navies like Russian, US and even Chinese are too slow and I dare say too outdated technologically to survive modern warfare. Basically Russian Navy is facing the exact same threat in Black Sea that US Navy has been facing in Red Sea for the past 6 months, and both are failing miserably.

Quote from: Ozero on March 29, 2024, 07:30:48 PM

The remnants of its Black Sea Fleet are hiding away from Ukraine's maritime surface drones and its Neptune anti-ship missiles.

The biggest threat and the only reason why Russian Navy is "hiding" is the UAVs and USVs, otherwise I seriously doubt that a subsonic cruise missile like Neptune that can easily be countered is categorized as a "serious" threat even if the stories of its successful hits aren't fabricated.

Even now it cannot be said that Russia dominates the Black Sea and it is unlikely that this situation will change positively for it after its current war with Ukraine. Yes, Russia has captured part of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. But the south for her now is like a suitcase without a handle. It’s a pity to lose, and it’s hard to bear. Why has the Russian occupiers been unable to drive out the Ukrainian landing forces on the left bank of the Dnieper near the village of Krynki for more than six months? And not only can they not do this, but the bridgehead is expanding, and the Russians are suffering heavy losses and cannot do anything about it?

The captured south of Ukraine is a long strip about a hundred kilometers wide. And all of it is constantly under fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To deliver ammunition to the Krynok region, it must be transported either through the captured land part of Ukraine, which is over 800 kilometers under fire, or bypassing through the captured Crimean peninsula. And Russians regularly fly to the Crimean peninsula to visit military installations, and recently high-precision missiles have been methodically destroying Russian air defenses located there in the form of S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. Planned preparations are underway for the appearance of F-16 aircraft and a large number of long-range missiles in Ukraine.

After the inevitable destruction of the Crimean Bridge, the south of Ukraine and Crimea itself will already turn for the Russians from a suitcase without a handle into a bag of fire and a trap from which it will be very difficult to escape. Russia understands this and is now building a railway across the captured south of Ukraine in case the Crimean Bridge is destroyed. This is in an area where the partisan movement works well and any movement of Russian equipment and manpower immediately becomes known to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the partisans themselves can blow up the bridges and rails of this railway.

The West has already decided that Russia cannot win this war of aggression. This means that the “dominance” of Russians there is temporary and purely conditional.