Sure it is good to have a longer time line, and that was part of the reason that I outlined the examples to show that the longer that we invest, even if we might start out at a market top, we still might well end up still putting ourselves into a good position.. even though surely it is not guaranteed, but we can see how our BTC portfolio is growing over a timeframe in which we might continue to buy for 4 years or more and then perhaps reassess if we might need to make any changes to what we are doing or just keep buying regularly.
The common problem with most investors is that they put too much attention on the short-term rather than the long-term.
Setting your gaze on the long-term and having a disciplined investment often helps to ride out market fluctuations because the fluctuations only affects the short-term investors.
Having a longer timeline also leads to a much stronger position in the long run.
Most investors believe there's a best time to buy, but fail to understand that everytime is considered a best time, because even if one buys at a market top and then HODL over a longer period of time, it can help to average out the cost as well as increasing one's chances of profitability.
I think that part of the point is that we have a pretty good idea that BTC is going to be volatile, yet we cannot know exactly how much in either direction, while at the same time, we have some fairly strong senses that the price is going to be going up over the long run, while not being completely sure about that, how much it will go up or even how long it will take to go up.
Through regular BUYING and HODLing for 4 years or more, one can take advantage of the DCA strategy and reduce the impact of the short-term fluctuations. It's also very important to reassess ones strategy overtime as this usually helps to make necessary adjustments in one's approach and to make more informed decisions about one's investments.
Probably the more important part is the ongoing management of one's own cashflow... and yes within that there can be concerns about how aggressive the person is able to be in terms of ongoing bitcoin accumulation.
Although, Investing in Bitcoin, just like every other investments is associated with lots of risk and do not guarantee success but at least, it'll be safer to know that a well thought out approach, patience, self discipline and persistence can help one to increase their chances of achieving one's long-term goals.
That sounds right.
Even if an investor has the same strategy, he might end up buying bitcoin at a higher price and then a lower price, so even a guy that got into bitcoin earlier could end up having a higher cost per BTC than someone who came in later, but in the longer run, he still would end up having more BTC, so the time in the market may still end up being better, even if he ended up with a bit of a higher cost per BTC than someone who came in later. At the same time, there is ONLY so much value in comparing to other people, but a guy could still compare to himself at time one or time 2, and surely I am not much of a proponent for waiting, even though I know that sometimes, there may need to be adjustments to how much is bought based on anticipations of price conditions, including being able to buy BTC as the price is going down, if that might end up being a guy's point of entrance into BTC.
You're right that even with same strategy, people can still end up buying at different prices, leading to different costs per BTC purchased by each person. However the main point worth noting here is that, though timing the market isn't always the best approach but time in the market could actually still be a very notable factor in determining overall success.
Just as you've also pointed out, it's always better to focus and evaluate one's progress and make all the necessary adjustments in areas that's required, rather than comparing oneself to another person because it could actually turn out to be inexpedient and futile. Rather than comparing oneself to others, one could try making comparisons to their own previous positions as this could actually help to assess one's growth and also make all the necessary changes and adjustments for future growth.
When comparing to one's self, there can be various scenarios that are considered in terms of both projecting forward but also looking back, so surely there can be assessments regarding the level of aggressiveness, or how organized a person is in his finances or even assessment of various mistakes that were made.. so one side and the other side (or variations) can be compared in each of these kinds of scenarios.
At the end of the year we may not be satisfied with our holdings as the DCA strategy implies consistent short buying. In this case, you can buy a bit more than the series when you realize that its price has entered a bear cycle if you have a floating cash supply. Recommend you to do more research on these marketing strategies. Again after some time when the market rises in the bull cycle, continue with regular DCA and you can get the benefit of over-accumulation in earlier DIP and the average price will fall.
If the goal is still the same as the target of buying on Dip and holding for the long term, I don't think anyone needs to spend any more time doing research related to marketing. Because the only weakness when we see the Dip price is when we don't have much money to buy, even though our desire to buy is very big when we see the price has started to Dip.
And now the price of Bitcoin has recovered and is heading towards $65K so that people who did not hesitate to buy Bitcoin when it was below $60K have once again experienced victory due to the surge in Bitcoin prices which started to occur again at the beginning of this month. This can be a valuable example for everyone that price corrections only occur briefly, but the next price increase in Bitcoin is always more likely to occur in the near future.
Sometimes when the BTC price dips, we just do not know if it is going to recover or not, or if we might be beginning a longer correction cycle or even a bear market.
Sure the four-year cycle and even things that are going on in the world (whether it is ETF approvals and/or government attacks on BTC) give us some guideline and some historical references, but none of those things guarantee price direction.. yet I am overall in agreement with you in terms of some value in buying on dips, especially for guys who are in a stage of their BTC accumulation that might be other than pure DCA strategies. .., which in other words, DCA is likely going to continue to work best for most newbies who are still building their BTC stash and who might be within the first 4 years or so of their BTC accumulation (and who might not have had been able to significantly front load their BTC investment). Otherwise, there is nothing wrong with employing a combination of strategies...
Sure, the odds might be low that the BTC price might not ever recover, but the odds are not zero, so you have to temper your own investment into bitcoin and to balance your cashflow, and if you were already convinced about bitcoin, you might not have any extra money when the BTC price ended up dipping below the 200-WMA because you had already been investing aggressive and/or overly aggressive prior to the BTC price even dropping below the 200-WMA, so part of the reason that it is difficult to know is partly based on your own situation, and if you had been accumulating all along then why would you have extra dollars merely because the BTC price happens to be down.
Having said that I am fully convinced about Bitcoin, I don't have huge money to go for lump sum investment rather I will go for DCA and if I see price of Bitcoin going down 200-WMA then I will take that opportunity to go aggressive. It's a kind of ideal situation that price of Bitcoin is down below 200-WMA and you have cash to buy bitcoin
So far in bitcoin's history, it has ONLY gone down below the 200-WMA the one time (between June 2022 and October 2023), at least for sustainable periods of time, so there surely may well be quite a bit of value to buy all the way down, because you cannot really know how far the BTC price is going to correct back down or how close it might get to the 200-WMA or if it might go below the 200-WMA again.
My tentative current expectation is that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so, and sure I could be wrong in that expectation, but that is currently how I am considering the matter, absent some facts changing, and there have been so many times that I have been wrong in various tentative expectations that I have in regards to bitcoin's price movement - and so in that sense I don't make any kinds of meaningful changes in my own strategies, and/or BIG bets based on various tentative expectations that I form from time to time.
So based on past price of Bitcoin we must not get worry even if price of Bitcoin is going below 200-WMA.
You should be able to have some confidence, but it still remains up to you regarding how much conviction that you have and no one is going to save you if you end up estimating wrong in terms of how you choose to balance your own cashflows. You are also going to be the one who is going to have to suffer if you make the wrong balancing choices.
It's my money so I am the one who will enjoy the profit or bear loss. I am convinced that my money is going in right direction.
Of course, no problem with that. Each of us should be attempting to strike a balance that is sufficiently comfortable.
There are many folks around who are investing in ETFs but I am one of few who is least interested in this ETF stuff.
There are some folks, institutions and/or governments who would have never been ready, wiling and/or able to invest into bitcoin directly, so the ETF provides an onramp to bitcoin that had not previously been available to certain kinds of investors to get exposure to bitcoin.
They want to play safe or don't want to take the risk that's why they go for ETF to avoid risk or legal complications.
Some of them legally cannot do it.. They absolutely cannot buy bitcoin and hold it themselves, so the ETFs provide vehicles for them to get in, and there is almost no way that they were going to set of their own third-party custodian situation in order to achieve some level of bitcoin price exposure, since that is what they seem to want to achieve.. They are not concerned about being able to directly experience the various powers that come from self-custody - even though surely some individuals will end up learning about bitcoin based on their institutions getting involved in the ETF, and some of them will choose to get involved in bitcoin self-custody - in spite of various ways that self-custody seems to be under-attack in recent times.
If the investor who invested at the late october peak 2021 baught when the first person baugh he could also have made him self alot of profit but now you can see there different clearly $17500 and $13600.
The first guy has 0.5386 BTC and the second guy has 0.4489 BTC. and sometimes we still cannot change the facts and/or the prices in which we end up accumulating BTC, and there may well be cases in which we acquire a bunch of BTC, and then the price goes down, and then we see some later entrants who are able to buy more BTC than we have for lower prices.. so yeah, we cannot necessarily avoid some of those kinds of situations, and we just need to do our best in terms of building our own stack so we feel as if we are prepared the potential of UP and also for down too.
definitely, but It depends on when you bought your coin. like those who baught btc at the rate of $100 each, will never face the challenge of buying at higher price and it dips and another person bought cheaper than the first person. I think people who actually accumulated alot that never regret the ups and downs market fluctuations are those early adopters who accumulated less than $100. because even if btc surly reaches $75k and dip down to $20k, they are still at advantage. so I presume early adopters should be classified as those who bought below $100.
I don't really object to your idea of buying below $100 as a kind of early adopter status, yet earlier adopter status is on a kind of spectrum with a lot of differing levels of early adopter, since if you think about it, even those various early adopter who bought a decent number of BTC below $100, they likely also got into bitcoin at various prices along the way and maybe also sold too much too soon, so they might have spent some time reacquiring some of the bitcoin that they sold.
So, it can be a bit problematic to attempt to describe anyone in terms of locking in some kind of early adopter price.
There may be some real world feasibility for any of us to consider in regards to various costs of our BTC, since we might have certain amounts of bitcoin at various costs, and then we also have our overall average cost per BTC, and depending upon what we are calculating, we might use different calculations in order to either justify differing actions or to tell different stories about our BTC stash and aspects of our bitcoin journey. which can have real world results in terms of how many BTC we might be choosing to sell later down the road, and then how to calculate it.
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You don't just invest because someone gave you an opinion to invest. You have to take time and do your own research about such investment, see the challenges involve in it and check out if you are ready and willing to face such challenges. The general view about bitcoin investment on this thread is for long term hold, once you have understand that concept very well, the next thing to consider is your source of funding, how stable it is, of course multiple sources of income is highly encouraged for every investors. You have to make plans for your emergency funds, reserve funds and floating funds. Before making your first investment. These things I mentioned above has to be in place, If you go through the thread you will see how extensively these things were discussed, because they are the fundamentals to a successful investment and long term holding.
Bitcoin investment is nothing something to rush into without putting these things in place, because if you neglect any of them you will have difficulties along the way. Regarding your last sentence, I think that one of the most important things with bitcoin is to get started, so sure it is important to figure out your finances, but it still seems that the message should be to get started rather than suggesting that there might be complications in regards to having to learn things first.
Even though I know that there are some folks who are completely fucked up in terms of their organization skills and they have also gotten themselves in to various pickles in regards to how they manage their finances, and there are a lot of people who gamble in the way that they manage their money. At the same, time I would like to presume that an overwhelming majority of folks have enough of an assessment of their cashflow to figure out if they have $10 or $100 per week or some other reasonable quantity that they can get started investing into bitcoin right away without putting themselves into worse finances than they might already be.
The mere organization of finances and also and putting together various budgeting matters is likely going to make a lot of people more rich - even though the more richness might not happen right away, but perhaps just over 3-4 years, a person who organizes their finances (which may or may not include putting some of that into bitcoin) is likely going to feel richer, and of course, having a stake in bitcoin seems quite likely to even put them in a greater position of actually being better off (even though there are no guarantees of such).
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Investing means just buying a coin and holding it, but not like that, investment requires proper planning. Like in which coin you will invest, for how long you will invest and how long you will hold your investment after investing but all this should be planned before investing.
If you can invest with a proper plan and invest in the right coin in the right way and if you are patient enough to hold your investment for a long time then surely you will be successful in investing. But before these you need to know about investment, understand the application of investment and accept the risk.
You make several good points Lidger - yet you deviate in a couple of regards - especially in the sentence that I bolded above.
1) sure no problem with planning, but it does not need to be accomplished prior to investing into bitcoin.. it can be done simultaneously
and
2) Fuck shitcoins and talking about the right coin.... that is misleading 1st because we are not talking about shitcoins in this thread and second because shitcoins are likely not investing, a waste of time and if you actually cannot resist the temptation to buy shitcoins, then limit the amount to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment size, without cheating in regards to allowing shitcoin suck value from your portfolio.
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I haven’t had the opportunity to hold Bitcoin for a year since I only just joined started building my portfolio this year but, am not looking to hold for a short time, nope, not by any chance.
Available testimonials on various levels (both the negative and positive) have proven that, Bitcoin shouldn’t even have a timing to it and I’ll tell you why am saying that.
Those who bought Bitcoin back then in 2010 through 2014 and later got to sell it. Even though they might have sold on profit and have reasons to be happy about the price they sold, some of those guys still gets to look at the price on the chart today and wish they had held on. It even gets worst for those who used it to pay for some product or service and later come to realize just how many of those product the said amount could buy in recent times.
Hence, having to sell in today would still have that same effect as per those who sold in the time past when the future year becomes a prevailing reality.
One thing is for sure though, situations do push people to doing that which they would have hoped to avoid but, never sell because you feel you’ve hold enough and should be taking profit. Also, accumulations shouldn’t stop, i think it should be a save guarding your future approach towards it and you don’t do that at once, you continue to buy through your existence. Let your buying enrich your portfolio and let the market price appreciate your efforts in Bitcoin price.
I am not really against anything that you said, yet I would like to say that there can be levels of BTC accumulation that is enough and/or too much, so then once you feel that you have too much BTC, then you can figure out ways to sell some of it without feeling guilty about shaving some off here and there. And, for sure, I am not suggesting that anyone should be selling large portions of his BTC stash.
Even though there can be some accounting difficulties in spending BTC, I am not really against the idea of using bitcoin for transactions, especially in a sell and replace way, even if you might not really make any money in engaging in such conduct,, but surely if businesses support bitcoin transactions, that should help to inspire any of us bitcoiners to want to use their services, when it seems somewhat reasonable for us to do so.. which would be spend and replace.,. but yeah, I understand that sometimes there can be extra transactional obstacles that discourage spending and replacing kinds of activities.