Quote from: rpietila on May 05, 2014, 01:31:13 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 30, 2014, 06:30:17 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 02:31:30 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 24, 2014, 10:31:10 AM

Quick TA update (at $0.481):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during this week, conclusion: none/(historically: bearish)
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.043, conclusion: both sides have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.355 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.460):
- 6H candle color/volume: red candles are taller, conclusion: bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.056, conclusion: easier to move to the upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.365 log units. The trendline is at $1.060 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: fearish, bearish, conclusion: less downside than generally feared
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

ADD: If sentiment is bearish, it indicated that the price will surprise to the upside, and vice versa.

Quick TA update (at $0.450):
- 6H candle color/volume: GREEN rules for last 5 days, although short, conclusion: slightly bullish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.037, slippage to buy: $0.049, conclusion: pressure to the downside, surprise to the upside (when one side has lower figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the other side with less resistance)
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.384 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: weak
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term (3+ months) buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.429):
- 6H candle color/volume: very little volume for last few days, conclusion: historically bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.029, slippage to buy: $0.045, conclusion: pressure to the downside, surprise to the upside (when one side has lower figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the other side with less resistance)
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.420 log units. The trendline is at $1.128 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.420...+0.518)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: short term risk for downside, mid-term we are still in a downtrend, long-term (3+ months) strong buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.449):
- 6H candle color/volume: greens rule on quite little volume, conclusion: slightly bullish
- Bid/ask strength at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.029, slippage to buy: $0.045, conclusion: buy pressure has created potential for further upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.413 log units. The trendline is at $1.161 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.420...+0.518)
- Sentiment: hopeful
- Prognosis: short term likely upside, mid-term breakout from the downtrend not confirmed, long-term (3+ months) strong buy zone

The backtested trading signals are now SHORT. The signal changes to LONG in the event of a large enough move up with large enough volume that beats the volume of a long enough time before it.