Quote from: bitmover on June 06, 2024, 05:54:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 26, 2024, 03:56:18 PM

How much BTC and/or value to use: Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location. However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used).

I have been thinking a lot about this fuck you status recently

Do you think an overall portfolio of 2 mi USD is enough to retire? Fuck you status? If so, how much btc would be healthy?

My own thinking has been evolving on the topic, so I am not really sure how to say it in ways that are really clear, since I think that each of us has to find our spot and our formula for when and how to start to employ something like a sustainable withdrawal.. not only in terms of the amount needed, but also who much could be withdrawn once we figure out that we have enough of a pot to be able to sustainably withdrawal.

Sure the dollar value of target is going to continue to move because of the ongoing debasement of the dollar - yet I still prefer not to let the ongoing and inevitalbe debasement of the dollar to interfere with my own calculations regarding how BTC can play a role in sustainable withdrawal, since it seems to me that bitcoin is not being debased at the same rate as fiat (that is if bitcoin is being debased at all since it has the opposite monetary policy that does not involve actual debasement but instead a fixed supply and a known rate of issuance.

So that $2 million comes from traditional ideas of a 4% withdrawal rate (which would therefor result in a $6,666 per month withdrawal - $80k per year), and since I am more and more inclined to believe that bitcoin bitcoin can sustain a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, then that means that not as much bitcoin is needed to be able to achieve that same withdrawal amount of $6,666. So right now presuming that 6% is sustainable, then that would mean that you would need $1,333,333 in order to get that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month, and if you are presuming that 10% is sustainable then you would only need $800k of BTC to obtain that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month.. ..

So using the 200-WMA, $2 million is 56.3 BTC, $1,333,333 is 37.5 BTC and $800k is 22.5BTC. You can look for yourself at https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So then the question becomes how much do you believe either the formulas being sustainable or alternatively that you might need some other kind of a cushion.. including if you have calculated your own income needs correctly.

Quote from: bitmover on June 06, 2024, 05:54:26 PM

30%?

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

Quote from: bitmover on June 06, 2024, 05:54:26 PM

I have been making many btc price projections, and it looks like Bitcoin is likely to reach 100-150k after trumps election.

Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Regarding you presumption of Trump's election? and then whether that would cause a certain BTC price direction. I am not sure about all of that.

Personally, despite USA politics, I am thinking that odds are pretty decently that BTC prices would end up bouncing around somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024 (and yeah that is not much different from what you are saying), and that in 2025, the BTC prices are likely to reach higher levels than 2024.. I hate to personally attempt to be any more specific than that, yet in any event the main measure (from my point of view) of the 200-WMA is continuing to go up and currently going up right around $42 per day.

But yeah, if you are thinking about selling or shaving off some BTC, you are thinking in terms of how much spot price you are going to get rather than 200-WMA.. so I understand those spot price kinds of framings are important to folks (normies/hodlers).