Quote from: bitmover on June 08, 2024, 11:57:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 05:36:09 AM

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..

I was asking your opinion about how much %of btc is health in a 2 MI usd portfolio?
30, 50%?

In a diversified portfolio with bonds and etf.

I am asking because you said before that you were already retired and had a diversified portfolio when you got to btc.

Of course there are different ways that you can treat you overall investment portfolio, and probably until the last year or so, I had been hypothesizing that even if bitcoin might have a higher potential return rate as compared with other assets in your portfolio, you could well treat the withdrawal rate similarly - however, I think that a lot of our more indepth sustainable withdrawal discussion, including how the sustainable withdrawal tool really shows how very much higher withdrawal rates can be maintained with bitcoin as compared with other assets... so even when we developed the sustainable withdrawal tool, I had already hypothesized that 6-10% would be quite sustainable - and I suppose that I am becoming more and more convicted in regards to that, especially after you had gotten the historical tracking to be working.

I am considering that none of us necessarily purposefully diversify into other assets, but yeah surely there might be some point where it makes sense to diversify into other assets, since it might not be comfortable to ONLY have investments in bitcoin and cash..so yeah, I cannot really say how much property, stocks, commodities, bonds or other investments to have, especially since mine has largely just been to let my BTC ride, and not really doing much if any diversifying. so largely the Bitcoin portion has grown to dwarf my other investments.. even though they already exist and I am largely just considering that package other investments as having a withdrawal rate of around 4% and the bitcoin to have a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, even though I personally still have not been withdrawing out of my bitcoin at anything close to that high of rates since my various other funds continue to support me, even though surely there are times that I try to spend more.. or to increase my spending budget in order that I can spend more bitcoin proceeds.

I have not updated my own disclosures of my percentage of allocations since mid-2022 - but you can see how my bitcoin versus other assets have evolved with my largely starting out in bitcoin with about 13.5% in late 2014 in bitcoin and most of the growth came from bitcoin appreciation rather than reallocating... so yeah maybe now my bitcoin is in the 80% to 90% territory.. and I see no real reason to purposefully sell my winner to diversify into losers (relatively speaking), and so I have difficulties answering regarding how much others might be justified to invest into various other assets.

Quote from: MusaMohamed on Today at 02:34:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 08, 2024, 05:36:09 AM

Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Consider to withdraw when Bitcoin price goes up 30%, then withdraw 3% of BTC in portfolio.

Could you explain more like you will withdraw by selling 3% of your bitcoin in portfolio when BTC price goes up 30%?

I was trying to figure out what bitmover was talking about, and I misunderstood him, but yeah, I stick by my comment of some kind of a reasonable rate of withdrawal that someone might consider once he has gotten his BTC holding to a high enough amount... and so frequently I try to use 10% for every 100% increase in BTC price as a kind of potential guideline, so then we could also do 1% for every 10% rise or we could do 3% for every 30% rise and still stay within the parameters of that same formula... and yeah currently I am not withdrawing that high of a rate.. but I can understand if someone might want to use something like that rate as a ballpark guidance of potential reasonableness.

Quote from: MusaMohamed on Today at 02:34:46 AM

My thinking for it is

I will sell my bitcoin, wait for price correction to like 5% or 10% and buy bitcoin. By this I will have +5% or +10% more bitcoins, and I will withdraw it with 3% of a new number of bitcoin in my portfolio. I will have +2% or +7% more bitcoins after that withdrawal round.

What do you think?

You are talking about trading and expecting to be able to buy back, so I am not talking about that. Sure I have some locations that I mention that you could buy back if the BTC price drops, but I am not choosing my amounts to sell or even guiding to sell with the purpose of being able to buy back. From my thinking, if you have purpose of buying back or some kind of a need to buy back, then you are doing something different from what I am suggesting.. since my suggested sales both relies on reaching a status of overaccumulation and also has no expectation of being able to buy back cheaper..

Quote from: MusaMohamed on Today at 02:34:46 AM

If I worry that I take profit too low, I will wait for BTC price rise like 50% to use this strategy.

Sure nothing wrong with giving some kind of a extra cushion to the point in which you might start to sell your bitcoin, but if you are considering being able to buy back cheaper, then you are thinking about the matter different from my own thinking about how to set up my sales decisions (if any)..