Since the former is not an option, good luck with convincing the miners to attack the very essence of Bitcoin.
Marathon is already blacklisting transactions and it didn't split the chain.
The tx will be mined by different company but the problem here is that it's already happening and other miners could be incentivized if not forced, to join this OFAC compliance.
I don't remember how this incentive would work, there's somewhere article on it - if I find it, I link it.