Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 09:27:21 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:45:04 AM

[edited out]

Yes, that's another difference between the price and value of Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin price is the same for everyone, the value of bitcoin is subjective and can vary from person to person, and the value depends on the perspective of the person.
Different people has different perspectives of Bitcoin, for some people, it's merely a store of value, some view it as a speculative asset and to others it's a means of exchange and these different perspectives and viewpoint of Bitcoin each also has different value propositions too.

Again, how a short-term trader values bitcoin is absolutely different from how a long-term HODLer perceives and value it.
Just as you stated, some investors try to place Bitcoin's value where the price is, if they believe that the price is too low compared to what they perceive the value of Bitcoin to be, they'll be prompted to buy and vise versa, if they believe the price is way higher tham their perceived value, they'll be encouraged to sell.

And the most exciting thing about the bitcoin market is that, the bitcoin market dynamics are mostly driven by these steady and different assessment of value versus price, and also one of the major factors that influences supply and demand which of course we know is the major factor that influences Bitcoin's price.
Every investor has their own personal and individual value judgement and just like Bitcoin price, investors' can also adjust their position and value assessments on Bitcoin.

We could go back and forth about this topic, and surely there are some folks that will assert that the price is the best reflection of value, especially if something like bitcoin is mostly freely traded - but then there can be questions regarding the various ways that bitcoin might not be freely traded or that the price might sometimes be overly manipulated from time to time (or maybe there are a lot of negative perceptions about various events - including something like the several negative events in 2022 in which many exchanges and/or services did not have the bitcoin that they claimed to have starting with Terra/Luna but also including 3 Arrows Capital, Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi, FTX/Alameda, Genesis, GBTC and likely several others that I am not remembering off the top of my head... Some of those were contagious events that actually affected the actual number of coins or perceptions regarding where the coins of clients were, but then also affects confidence, perception of momentum and even real momentum from some folks who might purposefully dump more coins in order to try to push the BTC price lower than what it should actually be able to go..

But then observers like us might not be able to actually determine where the actual value is and how far the actual value might be away from price, so of course there is actual current value and/or price and then there is also expectations of future value and/or price, so when prices go outrageously up or down, the price may well get out of line with the value.. and surely part of the reason that I enjoy so much to use the 200-WMA as my measure of value or my measure of what I speculate to be bottom price is because it is a measurement that is a lot more steady since it is the average trade volume weighted price for the past 4 years.. of course on a weekly basis.. so nearly 4 years, since 4 years would be 208 weeks rather than 200 weeks, but 200 weeks is close enough to 4 years to give a pretty good assessment of value based on that kind of a metric.

You can look at the historical differences between BTC spot price and the 200-WMA at this site:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

By the way, prior to 2022, the BTC price had rarely gone below the 200-WMA - except for short spikes, and in 2022 and 2023, for nearly 16 months, the BTC price spent a lot of time at or below the 200-WMA and at one point in the middle of November 2022, the BTC price got to 36% below the 200-WMA.. so even if the 200-WMA might not be used as an absolute bottom for the BTC price, I still think that the 200-WMA is a good estimate of value and bottom BTC prices that are reasonable/feasible.. but might not even be regularly reached, since I have my own theories regarding the 200-WMA ongoingly and constantly going up, which might not always be true, and likely it is going to continue to go up at a lower and lower rate with the passage of time, and surely it may well have some periods in the negative, even though so far the lowest that it got was around a 20% annual appreciation rate between June 2022 and November 2023 (which is 18 months-ish - and those historical numbers can be seen depicted in my fuck you status chart).