Quote from: Biodom on June 26, 2024, 11:12:26 PM

Quote from: aesma on June 26, 2024, 10:36:01 PM

Quote from: BitcoinBunny on June 26, 2024, 09:42:17 AM

That BTC is going to go up is a given. That it should endlessly follow a pattern, I just don't believe.
Everyone that tries to make a predictive pattern gets proven wrong eventually it seems to me.

I'd love to see BTC at $10 million in 10 years.
But let's be honest: is $1 million (16x) or $10 million 166x) more realistic?

Something else to consider is that "early" $10 million BTC might really mean the USD has crashed/there has been crazy inflation. Which would not necessarily be a good outcome.

For either number to be possible, bitcoin would need something that is not there yet: support from a large (if not a majority) swath of the population in bigger countries or blocks and governments that are at least acquiescing.

Even you should know that there is a difference between possible and probable (or likely), so surely either of those numbers are possible, even though $1million might not be very likely this cycle, but either $1million or $10 million become more probable in following cycles... how long it takes could be questions of a variety of matters related to adoption like you mentioned.. though I doubt that a large majority of the population needs to be involved in bitcoin for either of those numbers...

Anyhow, if we frame the matter in other ways such as comparing to gold, we should see that we are not very far off of some of those numbers.. maybe somewhere between $500k and $750k would be gold parity.. so that should not be too hard to reach, maybe this cycle, even if it might not be sustained, and then 10x to 100x gold parity might be a bit of a battle that could take 20-50 years or more to play out, even though many of us might already realize that bitcoin likely is more than 1,000x the value of gold, so that may well take 50-200 years to reach those numbers, but what is the hurry? There is a lot of distance between here and 1,000x of gold's price (market cap), so that is another 10,000x in bitcoin's price, so in the meantime we just plugging away at the ups and downs.. and yeah there is likely going to be decently sized BTC price moves and/or stepping up and also at other times there may well be perceptions of BTC price stagnation.

Quote from: Biodom on June 26, 2024, 11:12:26 PM

Sometimes, I think that bitcoin would be a "recovery" currency after a valley of some sort, but other times, when I feel more optimistic, believe that we can push through in one smoother rise.
EDIT: That said, it is hard for me to see bitcoin at $10mil/per at June 2024 $ values.

... I assume constant dollar values or at least some reasonable debasement in the 2% to 5% per year for the dollar... .but yeah, when we project forward we should be using dollar values from today, so it may well be the case that the actual (or nominal) bitcoin prices will end up even going higher.

Sure maybe $1 million does not happen in this cycle or the next cycle or even the cycle after that, so the happening of $1 million or how long it takes to get to 1 million would surely affect how long we might speculate that it might take to reach $10 million. Even if I am not personally counting on such high numbers, I am not going to rule them out merely because the numbers sound BIG relatively where we are at right now.. just like right now seems pretty BIG compared to where we were in 2015, too..