Do we even have any reliable information on the whole Mt Gox distribution thing?
Well, from what I read in the last week about the issue, the following amounts are expected:
- About 95.000 BTC could be redistributed "early", i.e. during July,
according to Alex Thorn.
- According to
Galaxy Research, from these 95.000, 30.000 would go to claim funds and Bitcoinica BK. These are unlikely to be sold.
- So there are 65.000 BTC which could, in the worst case, be sold during the month of July, if all MtGox creditors sell 100% of what they get. That's about 4 billion USD - about 20% of a "normal" daily trading volume like today (22 million according to Coingecko).
In
this article some more details can be seen.