Quote from: d5000 on June 28, 2024, 01:09:39 PM

Well, from what I read in the last week about the issue, the following amounts are expected:

- About 95.000 BTC could be redistributed "early", i.e. during July, according to Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research.
- Also according to Galaxy Research, from these 95.000, 30.000 would go to claim funds and Bitcoinica BK. These are unlikely to be sold.
- So there are 65.000 BTC which could, in the worst case, be sold during the month of July, if all MtGox creditors sell 100% of what they get. That's about 4 billion USD - about 20% of a "normal" daily trading volume like today (22 million according to Coingecko).

In this article some more details can be seen.

Yeah, sorry but lol, do these guys know how percentages work and how you should apply them at all?
Because if you take the first 75% of the creditors that would sell and then from this 75% you cut the 30k creditors will not sell, it doesn't make sense.

So it's not 140*(75/100)-30, and btw, 75% out of 140 is 105 not 95 Grin

, but rather (140-30)*75/100 which is 82.5 Grin

Also, the 10% is shaved out of their initial claim, not out of the money that gets reimbursed. So if I had $200 my paycheck is $180, but that doesn't mean that if the trustee had $190 he will just pocket the change, whatever is over my claim will be redistributed to the ones that demanded a full paycheck, common, it's in the damn reimbursement plan!
All the money the trustee has will be reimbursed, there is no 10% cut just because some cashed in early, it just gets redistributed to the ones that didn't!

Furthermore, he says that those 30k will be delivered to other creditors, mainly Bitcoinica, well, I have news for you Bitcoinica is in liquidation and the other is owned by MGIF , you expect users with lost coins from 2013 to sell in only 75% but you somehow think guys who lost money in 2012 won't?

Also....the conclusion...

Quote

So there are 65.000 BTC which could, in the worst case, be sold during the month of July, if all MtGox creditors sell 100% of what they get

Nope, the worst-case scenario in which all creditors will sell is selling 140 000 coins!
The 65 000 is simply saying only 54% will sell, which is by no mean worst-case scenario.