While you're correct that in 2016 the pattern was weaker (a >10% drop was present but only for a short time, about 2-3 weeks, so you could say it did not leave the normal fluctuation range), in 2020 it was in the same order of magnitude than now:


Source: Coinwarz

There was of course before the March "hashrate crash", so the halving drop looks like "one drop more", but this one was clearly caused by the price crash due to Covid, leading probably to a short panic in the mining sector too, because if the price had stayed at $5000 or less with the incoming halving the drop would probably have been even harsher.

My recovery expectation is not based that much on price expectations but mainly on gradual continuous hardware improvements plus rising longer-term average price, see my answers to @pooya87 above.

With the rest of your post I more or less agree. It is possible that recovery takes longer if for example Riot runs into difficulties. But eventually a new equilibrium will be found. Let's see how it plays out. At least I don't think the hashrate drop caused by this halving will be as large as the one in 2021 caused by the China ban.