Quote from: d5000 on June 28, 2024, 09:40:09 PM

While you're correct that in 2016 the pattern was weaker (a >10% drop was present but only for a short time, about 2-3 weeks, so you could say it did not leave the normal fluctuation range),

-5, not >10!

Quote

427,392   2016-08-29 17:11:01   220,755,908,330 - 220.76 G   + 1.56 %   0x1804fb08   09 min 51 s   1.58 EH/s
425,376   2016-08-15 21:59:14   217,375,482,757 - 217.38 G   + 7.67 %   0x18050edc   09 min 17 s   1.56 EH/s
423,360   2016-08-02 21:50:42   201,893,210,853 - 201.89 G   - 5.43 %   0x18057228   10 min 35 s   1.44 EH/s
421,344   2016-07-19 02:22:42   213,492,501,107 - 213.49 G   + 0.04 %   0x18052669   10 min 00 s   1.53 EH/s
Halving Date: July 9, 2016
419,328   2016-07-05 02:16:01   213,398,925,331 - 213.40 G   + 1.88 %   0x180526fd   09 min 49 s   1.53 EH/s
417,312   2016-06-21 08:18:58   209,453,158,595 - 209.45 G   + 6.83 %   0x18053fd6   09 min 22 s   1.50 EH/s
415,296   2016-06-08 05:41:58   196,061,423,939 - 196.06 G   - 1.63 %   0x18059ba0   10 min 10 s   1.40 EH/s

Quote from: d5000 on June 28, 2024, 09:40:09 PM

btw: Is your quote related to the 2020 hashrate evolution? If you mean the 15% drop was earlier (or later?), there always can be some delays, in either direction.

I only count difficulty adjustment, daily hashrate is just all over the place, compelty unreliable!

Quote from: d5000 on June 28, 2024, 09:40:09 PM

What I can't explain at this moment is the sharp November drop (this was ATH time in '20 ...).

End of China's rainy season!
Short story, cheap hydro energy during the rainy season, end of October-November, gear gets shipped back to inner Mongolia to feed on coal, it was an annual occurrence!

Quote

495,936   2017-11-24 21:53:16   1,347,001,430,558 - 1.35 T   - 1.28 %   0x1800d0f6   10 min 08 s   9.63 EH/s
493,920   2017-11-10 17:13:51   1,364,422,081,125 - 1.36 T   - 6.09 %   0x1800ce4b   10 min 40 s   9.75 EH/s
~
552,384   2018-12-03 13:59:28   5,646,403,851,534 - 5.65 T   - 15.13 %   0x1731d97c   11 min 47 s   40.40 EH/s
550,368   2018-11-17 01:51:24   6,653,303,141,405 - 6.65 T   - 7.39 %   0x172a4e2f   10 min 48 s   47.61 EH/s
~
604,800   2019-11-21 19:08:52   12,973,235,968,799 - 12.97 T   + 1.99 %   0x1715b23e   09 min 49 s   92.81 EH/s
602,784   2019-11-08 01:30:36   12,720,005,267,390 - 12.72 T   - 7.10 %   0x171620d1   10 min 46 s   91.02 EH/s

Quote from: d5000 on June 28, 2024, 09:40:09 PM

But eventually a new equilibrium will be found. Let's see how it plays out.

Equilibrium could be found even at 5 exa and price per BTC at $600, but I have a feeling in terms of security nobody would be happy about it!