So for me, I believe this could be the reason why we experienced some dumps recently that led to $60,000 level.
What happening right now is more like "buy the rumour, sell the news". Which the dumps is already happened before the event or after the event.
Could be, but I think it's just one of the factors.
Having pull-backs at this stage of the 4-year halving cycle is nothing unusual. On top of that, summertime historically isn't the best period for growth (be it for crypto or traditional markets).
But if this was a major factor for the recent price drop, I think it would be priced in by now.
Well, from what I read in the last week about the issue, the following amounts are expected:
- About 95.000 BTC could be redistributed "early", i.e. during July,
according to Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research.
- Also according to
Galaxy Research, from these 95.000, 30.000 would go to claim funds and Bitcoinica BK. These are unlikely to be sold.
- So there are 65.000 BTC which could, in the worst case, be sold during the month of July, if all MtGox creditors sell 100% of what they get. That's about 4 billion USD - about 20% of a "normal" daily trading volume like today (22 million according to Coingecko).
In
this article some more details can be seen.
Thanks!
Given most of their creditors are Bitcoin early adopters, I can't imagine all of them rushing to sell all of it. But there will be some additional sell-pressure for sure.