Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 29, 2024, 07:29:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2024, 07:16:45 PM

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 28, 2024, 06:52:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2024, 02:30:16 AM

[edited out]

You said one ONLY need to have around 10 years worth of your annual expenses for your 10% withdrawal rate to be sustainable, and I ask what is the person's weekly or monthly salary is small maybe just $100 or $200 a month will this advice still go.

Salary is not as important as expenses, and yeah of course, when we are working with such small numbers it might be more difficult to create a realistic scenario, since presumptively someone who is investing is going to have expenses that are less than his current income, yet sometimes it is not bad to error on the upside in terms of how much you think that you need to make sure that you are covered, since no one is going to rescue you, feel sorry for you or take the blame if you fuck up your amounts and you pull your personal fuck you lever too soon So, ultimately you have to make sure that you have enough....

So if your income varies between $100 to $200, then maybe it averages around $150 per month. How much do you have left over? What are your conditions of livelihood? Do you want to more or less continue with your already existing standard of living? Even if we go with $200 per month, that is only $2,400 per year, so if we have a 10% withdrawal rate, then that would be $24,000 as enough, and since I am measuring from the 200 WMA, so currently that $24k valuation would be right around 0.663 BTC. https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I will admit that I am a bit uncomfortable with working such small numbers, since I am expecting something like a withdrawal of $200 per month to be a pretty low withdrawal rate, and of course, my projection is that with bitcoin, if you manage your matters well, you are going to be able to withdraw at higher levels in the future or at least that your bitcoin holdings will still continue to grow at least to the cost of living (debasement of the dollar or whatever fiat currency you are living with), even with annual 10% withdrawal rate.

Yeah you are right when you said that "it will be difficult when we are working with such small numbers it might be more difficult to create a realistic scenario".
There are still people being paid that low and because of that there weekly or monthly investment in Bitcoin becomes very small and there is no way one will be aggressive in his or her Bitcoin investment with that small amount as salary, I love the questions you asked in your second paragraph or point, "How much do you have left over? What are your conditions of livelihood?". Anyone into Bitcoin investment that receives such small amount of money should think about this questions.
However a man with a good planning skill will still have a good Bitcoin investment if he continue his investment and always pray not to encounter big problems or issues that will make him spend more than his emergency funds, and I think such a person should invest and hold for a very very long time with discipline that way he will get it right.

I cannot put myself into the shoes of any investor, and you can likely see why it can be so difficult for someone who is making really low wages to continue to invest and to defer gratification when his bitcoin might start to grow to be several times his annual salary. So, it can be very difficult to resist the temptation to dip into the investment or to make other kind of adjustments that might be needed which also might justify diversifying the investment beyond merely cash and bitcoin.. and I am frequently saying that diversification is not needed, but sometimes when a person is coming from such poor background there might be some needs to diversify, especially when the size of the bitcoin becomes several times his annual salary (or his annual expenses, whichever measurement we might be using in these kinds of cases). .. and yeah, i already know and realize that there are a lot of people around the world that live in a kind of strict poverty in which they hardly even have any discretionary income to invest.. so there can be a lot of struggles for those folks to create their situations in such a way that they actually have discretionary income that they can invest and be willing to lose if the BTC price moves against them.

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 29, 2024, 07:29:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2024, 07:16:45 PM

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 28, 2024, 06:52:12 AM

Well for me I think one's salary and how much he or she invest on Bitcoin weekly or monthly using the DCA strategy plays a very important role when it comes to reaching a rate to be sustainable because if for example I'm investing on $10 or $20 weekly or monthly on Bitcoin and another is investing $100 to $200 weekly or monthly it will have different time for reaching a rate to be sustainable. ( My point of view).

Sure. The more you invest, then the faster you will be able to reach your levels, and so if a person is investing 10% of his income, then it is going to take 10 years to reach 1 years worth of income invested, yet if that same person is investing 25%, it is only going to take 4 years to reach 1 years worth of income invested, and surely you are making a good point that if a person retains reasonably low expenses, then he might be able to invest his whole level of his expenses in one year, which would likely end up causing the need for a lower amount of time to reach 10 years worth of income (expenses) being invested into bitcoin... so yeah, if the guy considers his level of expenses to be sustainable and even maybe to modestly go up and he can account for how his expenses will go up, then surely, he would be able to get to a point that he can start to withdraw bitcoin to cover his expenses and also to account for his stash maintaining its value sufficiently that his withdrawal rate is sustainable forever into the future.

Yeah and I believe one with good and strong emergency, reserves and float funds and also a good pay as salary can be aggressive in his or her Bitcoin accumulation in other have more Bitcoin in a short number of years.
And to be honest I'm planning on becoming aggressive in my accumulation I feel I need to do that so I can get more Bitcoin However I need to have a good back up funds before starting.

You can build up your bitcoin and your various backup funds at the same time, so you likely need to temper your aggressiveness until you feel that your various back up funds are solid.. whether you are referring to emergency fund, reserve funds and/or float... and yeah, in the end, you can figure out your own level of aggressiveness according to your own situation, but if you end up fucking up and being overly aggressive and in need of the funds because you were investing too much into bitcoin, no one is going to save you from yourself.. .. so you are ultimately responsible for your own calculations and outcomes.

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 29, 2024, 07:29:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2024, 07:16:45 PM

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 28, 2024, 06:52:12 AM

Yeah everyone has there own assessment and I love that you assess the value of your Bitcoin based on the 200-WMA rather than based on spot price and that is what I was saying earlier that accessing one Bitcoin by price will make you sale off your bitcoin thinking that has reached or you have accumulated enough and for me I think accessing it by price will be a big mistake anyone will do because it will always end in regret, I know was someone that once accessed his Bitcoin by price and and he also went ahead and sold everything and till date he is regretting his actions.

Yep.. spot price is going to leave too much erraticness and likely overassessing the value of your holdings.. so trying to measure from bottom prices seems to be a more solid approach to BTC value assessment

Yeah, it is always good to hear from other people's opinion before carrying out something and some newbies always make mistake of doing a thing without asking or making an inquiry.

You can also learn along the way.. so you might have certain ideas in your earlier years of your investing that you change later down the road, because you figure out that there are systems that work better for you or that you have to tweak your systems from time to time to hep yourself both financially and psychologically.

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 29, 2024, 07:29:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2024, 07:16:45 PM

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 28, 2024, 06:52:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 28, 2024, 02:30:16 AM

Quote from: Reincarnated Sat on June 27, 2024, 10:21:29 PM

In my own sense I think before thinking about selling our Bitcoin we should really think about it and ask ourselves what will I stand to gain if I start selling now and what will I stand to lose if I start selling now, I think this question will help you make a good decision.

I think that the better question is whether you are able to assess your withdrawal strategy as being sustainable or not, so if you do not have enough to have a withdrawal strategy, then you have not reached a high enough BTC accumulation to begin your withdrawals.. but hey whatever you can do what you like whether it is sustainable or not.. I personally believe sustainability of your withdrawal system (amounts and do you have enough) is the key to success with your long term investing rather than ending up cashing out all of your BTC prior and then ending up with a bunch of worthless dollars or whatever was your inferior investment and/or decision to consume rather than to make sur taht you have enough prior to staring to consume.

Yeah you are correct and I agree with you, sustainability of one withdraw system helps, before one will consider withdraw he or she should first check if he or she has a sustainable withdrawal strategy and if there's no good withdraw strategy then it means one has not accumulated enough Bitcoin, this point of yours if followed very well will really help in knowing if one has accumulated enough or not.

If you don't have enough and you start to withdraw from it, at some point down the road, you are going to realize that you are fucked because your bitcoin holdings is not holding value well enough to sustain your withdrawals (or alternatively, you have to lessen your withdrawal rate until your holdings are going to grow), and so in either case, you might well conclude that you made a mistake when you star your withdrawal based on an erroneous assessment of having enough when you don't.

So, my earlier example of 0.663 BTC amount will likely support something like a $200 per month withdrawal rate forever (and including being able to increase the amount with the likely increases in the cost of living (debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies)... so if you need a higher income, then you need to figure out ways to make sure that your BTC stash is large enough.

It is possible that you might come to differing calculations than me, including that you believe that you don't need as much, and surely those are likely discretionary decisions in which any of us might end up being wrong, yet I personally would like to make the mistake of having too much rather than too little.. yet we also have to be careful in our having too much too.. since sometimes we might believe that we need more than we do.. so we could make errors in our assessment in either direction of not having enough or alternatively having too much.. and needless delaying of our pulling of the fuck you lever.

That is why we need to be very careful and try to know if truly we have accumulated enough, a lot people thinks they have enough meanwhile it has not reached a good withdrawable limit.
And also from what you have said about being careful as not to have too much, well having enough will be more better than having little, a lot of people get confused on this point and that is why I always tell them okay have enough instead of having little.
And yeah you are right we could make errors from our assessment and that's why we need to be very careful especially we the newbies.

If you are reflective of your own actions and behaviors (and learning along the way), you should be able to figure out your own balances in regards to how much is enough and then how much is too much (which would mean waiting too long prior to starting to cash out)... so if you re measuring as you go and you figure out ways to measure, then as you get closer to your goals, then you might have to reassess your goals and figure out if your prior calculations were correct or if you might have to tweak some more in order to make whatever system that you had planned (in the arena of sustainable withdrawal) is going to work for your actual situation.

Quote from: chigo on June 29, 2024, 09:24:56 AM

Quote from: Frankolala on June 28, 2024, 10:06:17 PM

[edited out]

Sometimes there are some conditions where you see an opportunity but you don't have the money you can use, for example when the market is dumping, then taking out a loan with a low interest rate is a good step to buy bitcoin (since not everyone has a good boss/relative they can lend to, like your case).

On the surface, this sound rushed and like trading or gambling.

If your finances are otherwise in good shape and you have abilities to pay back the loan from other sources other than your hope that bitcoin goes up, then there might not be anything wrong with using a lpw interest loan to front-load your bitcoin investment - yet the first thing you think about should not be "the BTC price is dumbing, oh my god I need to get a loan to get in more than I otherwise could," but instead are my finances already in good condition, and do I already have systems in place to buy BTC and also to pay back any decently conditioned loan that I get irrespective of BTC's short-to-medium price moves.

Quote from: chigo on June 29, 2024, 09:24:56 AM

It's just a matter of how someone can calculate their ability to pay and how they manage their finances, because anyway in the next month they will buy bitcoin, so buying in advance using debt is not a problem. And discussing the interest, if it is still very low, I think that if you expect bitcoin profits in the future, it is not a big problem, for example, a loan of 100 USD with 5% interest, that's only 5 USD in interest, but with that 100 USD you could get more profit in bitcoin. It's just a matter of debt management skills, and many bitcoin investors have done this.

These are not bad ideas. A 5% annualized interest rate is not a bad loan rate for those who can get that kind of a rate, but it is not a no brainer to get the loan either, and what are the other terms of the loan? Are payments? monthly? what is the duration 2-4 years or longer or is it a shorter period loan? If you were able to negotiate a $12,000 loan, then a 5% interest rate would start out at $600 per year and of course the interest amount would go down as payments were being made (and maybe we are assuming that there would be no initiation fee - which sometimes could be something that might be needed to calculate), yet even with a $12k loan, the interest payments might start up being around $50 per month, but surely as the loan is paid down the interest would also be less per month, and if you were so favorable as to be able to negotiate a 6-year loan, then you may well have something like $200 per month payments for 6 years... and that is for the advantage of getting $12k in advance rather than taking 6 years to earn that extra money.

Quote from: chigo on June 29, 2024, 09:24:56 AM

But yeah, if you can't do that, then I say again accumulation or DCA is the best option for you.

Of course, it is better to start out with more basic BTC accumulation techniques prior to applying more advance techniques, and surely there can be situations in which getting a loan (and/or front loading your BTC investment with leverage) might make sense or be justified.

Quote from: bestcoins1 on June 29, 2024, 11:09:42 AM

Quote from: Jewan420 on June 28, 2024, 03:19:17 PM

Every investment should have an end, just as every chapter ends. If the investment doesn't end. There is no point in investing, I would consider it worthless. You have been investing all your life, but have not been able to enjoy the money invested. I consider such an investment futile. But I am not saying that you should end the investment too soon. You invest a certain amount and after getting your desired profit exit the investment and enjoy that money and start investing again. You can continue like this as long as you are able to generate income. Build a sizable investment fund years before you retire from your career so you can enjoy it in retirement. If you only invest all your life, that money may one day be left uninherited. Because human death comes unexpectedly.

Who are you teaching mate?
Do I look like a newbie who needs investment advice like that from you so you start teaching me and it's as if I don't know how to invest in Bitcoin which I've done for over eight years and still do as long as I have ability to do so. I really understand the advice you are saying because in essence you only emphasize enjoying the results of Bitcoin investment and I always enjoy that in life because it is impossible if the investment profits are not enjoyed because every human being always needs to eat and drink.

And the meaning of never stop investing is that everyone who has become an investor will always be better off if they want to stay on the Bitcoin investment path because enjoying the results is already a point that doesn't need to be discussed anymore because that is the main goal of investment. However, when it comes to enjoying the results, of course there are also considerations because every investor does not need to use up all of their investment capital except just separating the profits they have earned to continue their life and start another business by designating these profits as capital. And if you still think that every asset from investment cannot be inherited, I think that is also not right because now almost all assets can be inherited from our own family.

Well if you started in bitcoin around the time that you registered on the forum, then it looks like you are getting on close to 9 years investing into bitcoin..., and even if you made several mistakes along the way, you might have gotten to a point of focusing on bitcoin and figuring out various accumulation and hold strategies.. so then at some point considering if you might get into some kind of a spending mode at some point, yet I agree with you that you do not necessarily need to rush into changing your approach from accumulating and then into holding and then into spending, because there could be some points in which a person has accumulated a decent amount of BTC but he still might not feel that his BTC stash is high enough to start to spend from it... and so yeah, each of us have to determine those kinds of threshold questions regarding when our BTC stash might get to a large enough point that we feel that we can start to spend from it.

Whether you plan to pass your BTC down to your family or not might not necessarily be the main reason to build up value, but it could be a back up plan for anyone who might die without being able to spend their savings and/or investments. I am not much of a fan of purely investing in order to give to someone else who might not deserve it as much, but again those kinds of plans of how to spend or if to spend are personal choices too.