Quote from: be.open on Today at 11:22:54 AM

Quote from: paxmao on Today at 11:12:41 AM

I would like to see that report. Ruzzia is doing better than expected under sanctions, but is not getting "richer", it is burning through the Soviet legacy assets (e.g. thousands of tanks). Is like if you are selling your furniture and claim to be making a lot of money from it. And some of those assets will not come back, they are lost forever. Also, all the frozen assets are already paying the Ukrainian aid. I would not call it a working functional economy.

Enjoy.

In a few months, winter will come, and it seems no one is going to restore the destroyed thermal power plants in Ukraine. In a month, Ukraine could expect to default on $20 billion in commercial debt. There are presidential elections in the United States in a few months, which could complicate support for Ukraine. In Europe, elections are also held here and there, and right-wing candidates are increasingly winning them (Italy, Slovakia, France, Austria, Netherlands..). And the point is not that the right is for Russia, they are for their national interest, but the national interest of European countries is, if not to be friends with Russia, then certainly not to fight with it. There are many factors that are now pushing Zelensky to soften his position on peace negotiations with Russia, because Ukraine needs peace or at least a temporary truce now much more than Russia. This means that Russia’s negotiating position will be strong, and Ukraine will have to accept unfavorable conditions for itself and make concessions. And the West will also have to pay a good price for Russia to loosen its iron grip on Ukraine’s neck.

I would not bet the house on Ukraine defaulting, it will be a month on negotiations that will most like end with the payments being mostly delayed and agreed with creditors. But it is always possible to re-pay with frozen Ruzzian assets you know.

Well, the whole point of supporting Ukraine is not to have to fight with Ruzzia now or in the next few decades. In other words, fight is inevitable given Putin's objective of re-creating the USSR (territorially speaking), it is just a question of where is it going to happen and Ukraine seems like the right place (even for Ukrainians). I would not take for granted that the rightmost parties in Europe will not support Ukraine.

BTW, I have read the report. It does not look like Ruzzia has become better off due to the war, it seems that they are, as I said, on a war economy. You can see in the same report how Ukraine in theory also goes to a higher income category??

On the US elections, again, do not take for granted that Trump will just say "oh... take whatever". Even in the last debate he mentioned that Putin's "peace plan" AKA "surrender and we talk after" was not acceptable either.

Regarding paying to loose Ruzzias "iron grip" (that's funny) ... I agree. But the payment is going to come in the form of more weapons, economic support and intelligence. If you are even thinking of Europe paying anything else to Ruzzia you are absolutely dreaming.