Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 10:35:37 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 09:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 07:52:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 07:34:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 07:31:43 AM

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not. Grin

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

This is a great way of expressing the situation.

Canonical summary of the betting situation achieved. Now, maybe let's move on.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 27, 2014, 11:59:49 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 07:30:47 PM

Dat wall at 435 has scared everybody for like 3 hours already Shocked

A movie can scare people for three hours. Three hours is nothing. It's a speed bump on the road to $400. What is not scaring anybody now is fear of missing the train. That's what you should be concerned about.

One of the best comments in here during the last days, and completely ignored unfortunately.

Selling pressure is noticeably going down, even the bears will admit that much. What is however not happening is increasing buying pressure at those "super cheap prices per coin". Which, btw, the bulls /don't/ readily admit.

I wrote in here about 6 weeks ago (too lazy to dig up the post now... sue me) that we are in the process of "normalizing" 400. We're pretty much there now. Bitstamp is trading in the low 400s, and we're seeing what... 7k btc volume on the largest Western exchange, compared to the 100k+ volume on the earlier capitulation days, when those 400 coins were still a rarity.

What exactly the consequence is of normalizing 400 is not clear yet, imo. In the best case, it builds a solid base from which we can (slowly, at first) recover from the bear market. In a less favorable outcome, we will see normalization of 300 coins next.