Quote from: Bitcoin BEAR on April 28, 2014, 02:12:34 AM

Quote from: Arghhh on April 28, 2014, 01:49:37 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin BEAR on April 28, 2014, 01:26:35 AM

Quote from: Arghhh on April 28, 2014, 01:12:14 AM

I find that lots of people doing TA in BTC often fails because of several things:

1) Failure to take into account exponential user adoption in an otherwise uncapitalized market.
2) Failure to take into account unforeseen news, for better or worse.
3) Failure to take into account foreseen news, such as new exchanges opening, and capital investment pouring in.
3) Failure to take into account unforeseen BTC development timelines, such as sidechains.
4) Ultimately not being able to see the forest for the trees.

The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!

These guys doing TA in BTC assumes that they are still in a stock market when really, BTC is a stock, a currency, and an emerging technology that is the internet of money. The Elliott Wave analysis works only on a micro timescale, when it comes to macro timescale, these guys can't see the forest for trees!

Not seeing $5000 for 3-4 years? Sure, if we assume that the bitcoin technology stays the same, the userbase stays the same, and capital not pouring in. There will be no Second Market, no Winklevoss ETF, no US exchanges opening, no sidechain, and on and on.

1) It's only Exponential during rises. This doesn't mean the user base is not expanding, just that it isn't likely that it's exponential right now. Proof would be gladly accepted.
2) Irrelevant! The effect news will have is dependent on the way it is perceived. News is perceived differently in rises than declines.
3-a?) New exchanges are only a short term bump in the overall picture. And "All this new money pouring in..." you guys sound like the Litecoiners when Gox was supposedly going to add LTC to the exchange. Again, it was a short term bump and then leveled off.
3-b?) I don't know what these "sidechains" are, but anyone can read about the development going on in the BTC world if you just look.
4) ...

1) I agree with you that the userbase growth is not expanding exponentially right during correction, but it does on a yearly timescale.

2) News is relevant to BTC at this point. Not just the bad news like we've been seeing lately, but the news that pushes BTC in a positive direction as well, think Cyprus. I can't prove this, but I think it was more of the people who were already in Bitcoin saw a reason to rally. They bought on the rumor expecting others to do the same and it snowballed from there.

3) In reference to the analysis in OP's posted video, he just looks at patterns, never taking into account tech development or VC capital flowing into BTC. It will have consequences.

4) There are many people who think how much bitcoin is worth is based on their individual sentiment, rather than looking at the bigger picture and seeing what it actually is worth in the market. An example from March 2013:

Quote from: Bitcoin BEAR on March 16, 2013, 05:14:30 AM

I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.

lol Yep! At that time, it was worth between $5-9.99. Now it may be worth a little more, perhaps $25-50, or maybe $10-35... This is not my own sentiment. This is based on actual use and not the speculative demand.
As a side note; The mining difficulty is based on speculative demand too. I don't care what a miner thinks he deserves for a Bitcoin because he decided to start mining late. If the price hadn't risen (from speculative demand) then there wouldn't be so many miners pumping the difficulty up, and in turn, these prices would not be expected for a mined coin. It's a vicious cycle, but the fundamentals simply do not support this price. Get rich quick boys do.

You assume that Bitcoin has zero use as a store of value. A price of 50 dollars/BTC, total market cap 600 million dollars, assumes that one million users have a demand of only 600 dollars worth of Bitcoin per person. Anyone who believes that is totally disconnected from reality.