http://imgur.com/P0myVrgPrice or btc values, in % (looks the same).
I've added the BTC price for each dividend pay date, as a reference.
Hosting cost keeps rising and looks (correctly) correlated to btc price (until last week, were massive deployment happened... so should be fine).
I'm not convinced that I'm looking at data correctly. Maybe I should add difficulty in there?
Yes, you should add difficulty here. Each time difficulty increasing means we need to output more power to acquire the same amount of btc, that means more higher hosting fee. 1% more difficulty = 1% more hosting fee.
If the trend keeps going this way, by the 1st of August we should have:
75% for Hosting
9% reinvestment
16% dividends.
At the end of September, the dividends go to zero.
Of course, only if the BTC/$ trend keeps falling and if we can't deploy at cheaper costs. I think that the focus now will really be on the new boards and on less power consumption units (or cheaper electricity?)
There is no cheaper electricity in this project. Petamine charges hosting fee 0.45 $/kwh. See? It's based on the electricity. Unless they are willing to reduce their salary.
Find other power efficiency chips is one way.
Reinvestment looks good until now, over 20% while difficulty didn't keep the same rate.
Am I reading this completely wrong? Does anyone have a nice excel to share?
Right now as I know, Petamine's reinvestment is around 2.2 USD/Ghs. Which is not bad, currently the cheapest Ghs in the market. And that brings us about 3% of current hash rate growing each week. However, the total network is growing like 7%~8% each week. Which means we are falling behind. And I suspect the difficulty growing is not going to slow down before September. So I think it's a very harsh situation to shareholders right now. Petamine doesn't care about this, because they charge based on electricity consumed. So the problem is going to be considered by shareholders. The solution is quite clear - BTC price need to be doubled , so we are able to reinvestment more Ghs to catch up with the difficulty growing. (Assuming price rise doesn't lead to insane difficulty growing rate.)
Or Petamine needs to lower the hosting fee so that we can deploy more Ghs with the reinvestment part.
And both of these are not controlled by us. So I think the dividends are about to start decreasing in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
That's why the share price are keeping around 0.065, and I don't think it's undervalued right now.