Quote from: franky1 on July 29, 2024, 09:26:26 PM

Quote from: mjdamgaard on July 29, 2024, 11:01:38 AM

Quote from: franky1 on July 28, 2024, 04:57:46 PM

you think 1–4% is not enough to crash a market.. but here is the thing.. not all coins circulating are on the market.. only a small proportion of coins crculating are on market orders so a sudden increase of coins hitting the market supply would cause change

take for instance bitcoin, there are over 19m coins in circulation.. but there are not 19 m coins on the market. most market orders are 0.0X coins per order.. so if there was a sudden period where people were colluding to sell for instance 190,000(just 1%) coin the market orders would flood with sell orders compared to the norm.. now translate that to the numbers of ethereum circulation amount and market supply and see some scenarios of then dumping 1-4% of that circulation on the market supply.. you will soon see how it affects the markets

we seen it many times in the bitcoin market when the market orders were <1btc each. but then whales created walls and orders of just 1000 coin order lumps.. it had enough impact on the markets

This seems surprising to me. According to https://bitinfocharts.com (today), the transaction volume is roughly 0.6% each day. So I have a hard time wrapping my head around the proposition that transfers of 1%-4%, potentially over several days or months, would crash Ethereum?

you linked stats about blockchain transactions. not market volume
also of the $10b estimated actual market volume of ethereum today, majority of that is not sourced from staked ethereum holders but instead from a small amount of traders whom are bitcoin based and are arbitraging the markets in a loop pattern several times a second

so now put the math to work.. if you had an actual group of actual ethereum holders that want to wealth transfer to then invest in bitcoin hardware. the numbers even over many days would effect the markets

also i know you want to imagine it as many people selling just 0.0x eth every second for weeks on end, but in reality knowing that over 2 million bitcoin asics need to be bought over say 6 months to keep the collusive gang in check/entertained that their plan can succeed. they would need to sell hundreds of thousands of eth periodically to then bulk order in batches the hardware

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and lastly

Quote from: mjdamgaard on July 29, 2024, 05:10:24 PM

Yes, we certainly agree that it would likely require some change in the public perception of crypto. But who knows, that could happen. And it seems to me that once the Ethreum stakeholders truly realize that there could be up to a trillion dollars on the line, they will have more than enough motivation (and means) to make the public more acutely aware of the competition between the two blockchains.

you keep trying to make the false presumption that a 51% attack would lead to ethereum taking the top market cap.. and then win trillions because of it

sorry to inform you once again that the market cap $$ number is not real money stored in a vault waiting to be paid out..
the market cap is just a empty math number of taking the current price based on a small order of 0.0xcoin and then multiplying the number by how many coins in circulation.. its not based on real $$ held anywhere

infact if you only care about replacing a altcoin as the top market cap #1 stat.. do the simple thing.. create a altcoin with 5 trillion coins pre-mined/minted. sell 0.00x of those coins on a popular exchange for $0.01 and instantly create a market cap of multiple trillions.
yep a "#1 market cap attack" can occur at the cost of just $0.01

This is a Bitcoin forum, so it is naturally expected to hear the opinion that other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum might be somewhat inflated. But the picture that you are painting here seems just a little bit too unbelievable, and I for one need a bit more convincing. Ethereum is a cryptocurrency. As a commodity, its value is based on the fact that it can be used to make transactions and pay for stuff. If what you are saying is true, then its whole value is so incredibly inflated that it is essentially a complete bubble waiting to burst at any given moment. Or am I perhaps misunderstanding something?

If what you are saying is true, Ethereum investors are due to lose in the order of $440B at any given moment now, once some of them start realizing that it's all a complete bubble and start to sell their Ether. Or are they all in collusion to maintain this bubble do you think?

Now consider the fact that the price of Ethereum has had fluctuations of about 25% in this year alone! It seems that by your arguments, it is a miracle that Ethereum hasn't crashed this year. So I hope that you can see how your proposition that using 1%-4% of the Ether for its actual purpose of 'paying for stuff' will lead to a crash Ethereum seems a little hard to believe. But I'm happy to hear your arguments if you really want to maintain this position.

However, I also don't hope the conclusion of this discussion will be that 'No, Bitcoin do not need to consider trying to mitigate this attack vector at all' if that conclusion relies solely on the proposition that Ethereum is bound to crash at any given moment now, or that all its investors are somehow colluding to inflate its price out of proportions. I think that there are other more meaningful counterarguments to the attack vector..